Division Opponents for 2016: Phillies

[Frayed Knot]

Seeing as how these guys are:
1) in our division;
are the nearest team to us;
III) will be the first team we’ll see for the home opening series after this silly 2 games in 5 days “series” vs that team in the softball league, it’s probably a good idea to figure out what’s up wit’ (as they say at the cheesesteak joints) these dudes.

Well just this week they gave manager Pete MacKanin an extension through 2017 w/an option for ’18 - which seems kind of odd to me seeing as how they just hired him as the permanent skipper at the end of September (after being interim since June). Guy must run a helluva spring training camp.
And raise your hand if, like me, you had already forgotten who was even the Philly manager.

The Phils haven’t quite gone all wholesale changes like the Braves (thank you deposed GM Ruben Amaro Jr.!!) but the process has started as longtime stalwarts like Rollins, Utley, Papelbon & Hamels have all been banished elsewhere over the last year.
But the Philly system has been so thin recently that they felt it necessary to make several deals where minor leaguers were sent away in exchange for fill-in guys just to get a team on the field this year even though, ideally, you figure they should be doing the exact opposite. The only real trade they made with a guy in his prime was Hamels and the haul in that deal may still be mostly a year or so away.

As currently constituted, they might just have a pretty decent infield consisting of a power platoon at 1st, two young glove/speed guys up the middle, and a rising star at 3rd.
But the outfield is looking very thin (partly lack of talent, partly injuries) and the pitching staff maybe even more so.


C — Ruiz & Rupp
This will probably be, like 2015 was, a little more even in playing time as compared to the past when the now 37 y/o ‘Choch’ was an iron man behind the dish

1B — Ryan Howard / Darrin Ruf
Now don’t get your Rupp and Ruf confused if they both make the lineup on the same day.
Probably a strict R/L platoon although Ruf could steal more and more time as Howard’s body completes its disintegration process and the end of that contract gets closer (end of 2017)

2B / SS — Cesar Hernandez / Freddie Galvis
Both are 26 y/o (or soon to be) Venezuelans who got significant playing time for the first time in 2015 as Rollins & Utley were phased out. Neither brings much pop but both did improve their BA/OBA offense when given regular playing time.

3B — Maikel Franco — Won't be 24 until August but is on the verge of being a major star even though has <400 ML ABs under his belt. Is also leading the world this spring with 8 HRs


RF — ex-Angel/Cardinal Peter Bourjos was picked up off of waivers over the winter and looks to have the RF job almost by default. Is fast and a good fielder but has a slight problem with hitting (he suxx at it) which is hardly ideal when talking about a starting corner OF

CF — Odubel Herrera
Last winter’s ‘Rule 5’ pick as an infielder who the Phils immediately threw virtually cold into CF where he learned to swim quite nicely on both sides of the ball [.299/.344/.418]

LF — Tyler Goeddel — No known relation to Eric, Tyler is a former 1st round (41st overall) pick of the Rays and is this year’s ‘Rule 5’ for the pick Phils. He’s probably the starter here by default; seems to have had a decent year in AA last season.

Former 3B-man Cody Aschie who manned LF most of last season is injured and will likely miss the start the season, as will the German-born Aaron Altherr who looked good in a brief late-season call-up but will probably be out until mid-year, all of which makes their OF situation very thin as things start.



Pitchers

The Phils traded a minor leaguer over the winter to get the very mediocre Jeremy Hellickson from Arizona (formerly Tampa) and he may well be their opening day starter.

Aaron Nola — The 7th overall pick by the Phils in June ’14, Nola (who sounds like he should be from New Orleans but is at least from nearby Baton Rouge) got the call just one year after the draft and looked promising in 13 starts down the stretch in 2015. They’re hoping he’s their future ace.

Charlie Morton from Pittsburgh is another one of those ‘bridge’ guys they dealt for over the winter. He’s 45-70 over his career with a 4.54 ERA and 1.44 WHiP in eight seasons.

Jerad Eickhoff — 25 y/o RH was part of the Hamels deal last summer (though wasn’t the main bait in that trade). Made 8 ML starts following his August call-up.

Vince Velaquez (former 2nd round pick by Houston acquired in a trade) and Adam Morgan (the only LH) are battling for the 5th spot. Both made debuts in mid-2015
I assume they’ll have a bullpen this season too although I have no idea who’ll be in it and at this point I'm not sure they do either.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Vince Velasquez was just getting started.

CG shutout, sixteen whiffs, today vs. San Diego.

[Frayed Knot]

KTE Update for series Apr 18-20


Phils: 6-7 record (4-6 in non-NYM games) so far in 2016 while being both out-scored 33-52 and DFL in the NL in runs scored at 2.61/G (Mets = 2nd worst but at 3.36)

After leaving CitiField the Phils went home for their opening week and took 3 out of 4 low-scoring games from SD
They then got blown-out twice by the Nats before a 2-run/10th inning comeback vs ex-closer Papelbon to win on Sunday afternoon.

But they have pitched surprisingly well (5th best at 4.17 RA/G) and we’ll face the same starting trio we saw in week one:

Monday, 7:05. Syndergaard vs Jerad Eickhoff
Eickhoff allowed 3 run (2 ER) on 5 hits over 5 innings in the game vs us - the game where we smacked around their pen and won 7-2.
Since then he shut-out the Padres on 4 hits over 7 innings.

Tuesday, 7:05. Verrett vs Vince Velasquez
Shut us out over 6 innings on 3 hits and 9 Ks in what became a 1-0 NYM loss.
He followed that up had what is probably the best game in MLB this year by tossing a CG 3-hit/16 K shut-out vs the Padres. So not only has he not lost yet but he hasn’t given up a run yet.

Wednesday, 7:05. Colon vs Jeremy Hellickson
This will be Hellickson’s 4th start of the year. Since his OK start vs us (2 runs/5.1) he got thumped for 5 runs in the 1st inning by the Nats (6 ER / 3 IP) in what went on to be a 9-1 loss.


It’s still early to draw conclusions, but what the hell:

1st base:
Ryan Howard has started 11 of their 13 games at 1st despite hitting under .200 (w/4 HRs)
Daren Ruf has started only twice at 1st (both vs LHP which they won’t see here). Plus they crossed their fingers and tried him once so far out in LF on account of their de facto corner OFs (Bourjos & Hunter) hitting so poorly.

Catcher:
Cameron Rupp (7 starts) & Carlos Ruiz (6) are splitting the catching duties although not quite on a strict alternating basis.


Corner OF:
Codie Aschie still on DL
LF Cedric Hunter is hitting a whopping .091/.143/.182. and RF Peter Bourjos had two hits on Sunday to rocket his BA to .189


Bullpen:
LHR Daniel Stumpf, seen briefly in the earlier series, has since been hit with an 80 game PED suspension.
As a result, 6’ 7”/275 lb Venezuelan Elvis Araujo has been called up. He pitched in 80 games last year including 6 vs the Mets although I somehow have no memory of a dude that size.
He now combines with James Russell (who we saw twice last week) and Brett Oberholtzer (who we didn’t see at all) to give the Phils 3 LHRs out in the pen

[Frayed Knot]

So first I do the initial 'Phils in '16' thread, then did the first week's KTE, and then spent last night updating the KTE for this series, only to find that the Phils made a roster move this afternoon and stuck someone in tonight's lineup who I've yet to mention. I'm convinced they did it just to make me look ridiculous and, as Jack Woltz once reminded Tom Hagen, a man in my position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous!!!

[fimg=350]http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/godfather/images/3/34/Vlcsnap-2010-06-29-18h14m34s69.png/revision/latest?cb=20110304193834[/fimg]

So anyway, David Lough (pronounced LOW, as in Derek Lowe) was brought up from AAA and non-hitting career minor leaguer Cedric Hunter swapped out.
Lough had two partial seasons with KC in 2012 & 13 then two more w/Baltimore in '14-15. I saw him occasionally with the O's where the now 30 y/o lefty swinger/thrower never really hit enough to snag a full-time position [.255/.295/.377 over 4 seasons and 750 PA] but, IIRC, he runs well and plays a decent OF. Just another one of the low budget FA signings that these Phils made over the winter which has helped their payroll plummet from $183 million two seasons ago down (3rd highest in MLB) to $88 mil as of the start of 2016.

[TransMonk]

[youtube:vnthu717]gYdlqjiQPAc[/youtube:vnthu717]

[Zvon]

Frayed Knot wrote: a man in my position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous!!!

HAha, your KTEs are the best FK.
Thanks.

[Frayed Knot]

Second half gets started with our nearest rival but one we haven't seen since losing on an 11th inning walk-off infield single back on April 20th.

They've been an erratic team this season, at first surprising everyone with a 14-10 April thanks mainly to a ton of one-run wins (they're still 20-9 in 1-run games). But their negative run differential caught up with them eventually sending them plummeting to 19-35 in May/June.
They then turned that around again just prior to the break going 10-3 although against mostly weaker competition: ARZ, KC, ATL, COL


Changes since we last saw them:
- Cody Aschie is off the DL and back in LF where he occasionally swaps with Eric's brother Tyler Goeddel in what could be our first Goeddel-v-Goeddel matchup
- Tommy Joseph has replaced Darin Ruf as the RH-hitting platoon at 1st base and already has 11 HRs since his mid-May debut. The 24 y/o Joseph is a former 2nd round pick by SF who was sent to Philly back in the Hunter Pence deal. He'll play 1B most days with Ryan Howard down to about a twice a week guy these days.


Friday, 7:05 -- Jeremy Hellickson [6-6; 3.92; 1.20] vs Colon
Saturday, 7:05 -- Jerad Eickhoff [6-10; 3.80; 1.26] vs Verrett
Sunday, 1:35 -- Zach Elfin [2-2; 4.08; 1.22 - in 6 ML starts] vs deGrom

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Come see the Lunch Family at Sunday's deGromination.

[Frayed Knot]

Homecoming/Home Stretch Series -- Aug 26-28

Friday 7:10 -- Adam Morgan vs Colon
Morgan = Not very good. 26 y/o, 2nd year lefty;
16 games/14 starts in 2016; 6.21 ERA, 1.58 WHiP. Hasn't faced us this season; faced him once last August where we put a whoopin' on him

Saturday 7:10 -- Jeremy Hellickson vs Syndergaard
Hellickson has probably been the Phils best starter all year. 25 starts, 10-7; 3.60; 1.14
Faced him three times this season and lost two of those games, mainly we wore him out with high pitch counts and forced short outings: 10 ER over 16 innings overall.

Sunday 1:10 -- Vince Velasquez vs Gsellman
Velasquez is probably their most dynamic pitcher (owns an 16-K / three-hitter this year and beat us 1-0 back in April) but also less consistent than Hellickson: 4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Got bombed in his last three starts (19 runs in 16 innings vs LAD, LAD, & StL)


What's new?

Mainly that Carlos 'Chooch' Ruiz has been traded. After signing with them as a teenager 18 years ago and then 11 seasons with the big club, he was dealt on Thursday to the Dodgers for their backup backstop AJ Ellis plus some minor bodies and money going one way or the other. Seemed like an odd trade from LA's side and 'Cooch' was all but gone in a few weeks anyway. Ellis is only 2 years younger and can't hit either.

Aaron Altherr is the German-born uber-athletic looking OF who we saw a bit of in 2015 but was on the DL during all our meetings earlier this year. So he's back now, mainly in LF, as Cody Asche is back on the DL

Other than that, pretty much the same as before:
1B - Tommy Joseph or Ryan Howard
2B - Cesar Hernandez
SS - Freddy Galvis
3B - Mikael Franco
LF - Altherr and/or Tyler Goeddel
CF - Odubel Herrerea
RF - Peter Bourjos
C - Cameron Rupp backed by AJ Ellis instead of Ruiz


Still might get to witness the first Goeddel-v-Goeddel meeting.

And while I know we're looking in front of us much more than in back, the Phils are only 5 games behind.

[Edgy MD]

Erik Goeddel went down yesterday with the recall of Gilmartin. There seems to be some kind of law of conservation that won't allow two Goeddels to appear in one series. But Altherr and Goeddel certainly make for a pretty Teutonic platoon.

It's interesting that LA continues to be the place old Phillies go to die. It seemed like just yesterday it was the final stop for old Red Sox.

Justin Turner has really turned (NPI) his season around since we last saw this team, and he's not got a stat line in step with his last two seasons and has really turned on the powa. Strange how Murphy and Turner were once a meh platoon for the Mets and now they're each swinging thundersticks and terrorizing the league.

[Edgy MD]

Tonight's starter, Adam Morgan, besides being a fun place to drink in Washington, DC, is a left-handed second-year guy with a 6.21 ERA. So Flores, Ruggiano, Rivera, and especially Céspedes can be expected to be licking their chops.

He's a control specialist with a rebuilt rotator cuff, whose best pitch is called a "Bugs Bunny change up." So don't lick your chops too much, guys.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We'll have to watch closely to see how much saliva is on their chops.

[Lefty Specialist]

No more screwing around, Mets. These guys need to be swept.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Tonight's starter, Adam Morgan, besides being a fun place to drink in Washington, DC, is a left-handed second-year guy with a 6.21 ERA. So Flores, Ruggiano, Rivera, and especially Céspedes can be expected to be licking their chops. He's a control specialist with a rebuilt rotator cuff, whose best pitch is called a "Bugs Bunny change up." So don't lick your chops too much, guys.

Y'mean like the RHBs in his one game vs NYM last August (one year and two days ago to be exact): Cuddyer - 2 doubles; Wright - HR; Flores - HR; d'Arnaud - HR; Lagares - HR
Then later in the game, although off different pitchers, Cuddyer HR'd, as did Cespdes, Murphy, and Flores for a second time as the Mets set a club record of eight in a game.

In keeping with the present, it was also one of those awful days for deGrom like we've be seeing lately. He lasted only 2-2/3 giving up 7 runs on 8 hits including 3 HRs of his own (Ryan Howard, Domonic Brown, Cameron Rupp) before moving aside for Gilmartin (W), Robles, O'Flaherty, and Carlos Torres to finish up the 16-7 win.

Not surprisingly, this game was in Philly.

http://www.leaptoad.com/mets/gamedetail.php?gameno=8652&tabno=D

Morgan actually entered the 4th inning of that game up 7-2 but when the Mets half of the 4th started: Single, HR, HR, Double he wasn't around for the end of it.

[Edgy MD]

Your new Phillies hitting coach is Canadian puckhead and former fat guy journeyman* outfielder Matt Stairs. He replaces the recently discharged Steve Henderson.

Wait a minute ... Steve Henderson is available?

* 14 teams, counting the Chunichi Dragons

[Benjamin Grimm]

Wasn't he in their broadcast booth this year?

[Edgy MD]

He was.

Stairs goes downstairs.

[Edgy MD]

Mets have a PR nightmare in Jeurys Familia.

The Phillies have one in Pistachio Girl.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Revolting.