Let's talk Marlon Byrd and chew gum but run out of gum

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He's our guy!

[Guest d'Kong76]

Clearance rack special, right up Fred's alley!

[Frayed Knot]

Averaging 24 HRs/yr & 57 XBH/yr over the past 3 seasons -- that's right up MY alley.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Projections don't like Byrd a lot. But maybe after the Nats complete theor deal it finally falls to the Byrds of the wyrld.

[Frayed Knot]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Projections don't like Byrd a lot.

The projection line in BB-Ref still shows 49 XBH over 500 ABs. Rate stats aren't great [.255/.302] but fall-off is to be expected for a guy who's already 38 y/o
Now ideally he's not going to get 500 ABs w/the 2016 Mets but that's the good part, he, unlike Cespedes, isn't being signed to lead the offense or play every day. In a perfect world he swaps w/Conforto, fills in for Granderson, PH's, serves as injury insurance, and maybe even picks up a 1B mitt to give Duuduu a day off.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Now ideally he's not going to get 500 ABs w/the 2016 Mets but that's the good part, he, unlike Cespedes, isn't being signed to lead the offense or play every day.

Two questions:

1. What do you think it would take to get him? (Years and AAV)

2. He's averaged 543 AB's the last 3 years to go along with his average of 26 HR's. How can we be sure he's not looking to play every day?

To clarify, it would be great if we could get him, for cheap and have him agree to a part-time role, but when comparing over those three years you cite, he's been healthier and better than Curtis Granderson.

[Frayed Knot]

The trick with Byrd is that he's going to have to agree to a deal where he knows coming in that he's not going to be assigned a regular position. If he gets an offer that guarantees him regular playing time then he's probably going to take it.
Or maybe not. He's been pretty much a full-time guy the last three seasons but only in 2014 did he hang with one team the entire year (the 89-loss Phils) and guys turning 39 (August) who aren't signed yet as February approaches generally aren't any team's top choice to be a main cog in their lineup. So maybe he is gettable for the role we're thinking of particularly if he thinks a part-timer on a potentially winning club beats being a full-timer on an also-run. Cuddyer at least partially made a similar choice a year ago.

Years? -- I can't imagine the Mets would want to go above one. Maybe one plus an option that kicks in at some AB level but, again, he's already 38.
Value? -- I don't care. I've long stated here how I'm always more concerned with the length of deals than the dollar figures. Their accountants know what they can or can't afford, I don't.

[Centerfield]

Sure. If he agrees to a backup role and a 1 year deal, great. Just wondering why we think that this is in the cards considering his production of late.

[Edgy MD]

Well, he doesn't have a date yet, and the prom is right around the corner.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: Just wondering why we think that this is in the cards considering his production of late.

Cuz he'll turn 39 during the coming season and has bounced between seven clubs since 2012
Also don't ignore Byrd's .290 OBA this past year when declaring that he's been "better than Granderson" (.364); Marlon's going to make a lot more outs given equal time and the small difference in slugging is probably more stadium related (1,000 ABs in Cincy & Philly)


And if it's not in the cards because someone offers him a multi-year deal with vague promises of 100+ starts/year well then there's a decent chance he's not coming here.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I just think he'd be a good guy to have in that role we'd imagined Cuddyer would have had he not retired: Veteran RH hitter with power, corner OF and potential fill-in at first base. Who's that guy now? Flores except he's primary a 2b-SS-3B backup. Campbell? He kinda went Josh Satin on us. PLawecki/dArnaud if we carry a 3rd catcher.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It sounds like Ryan Raburn might be the guy they go to to fill that role.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Just wondering why we think that this is in the cards considering his production of late. Cuz he'll turn 39 during the coming season and has bounced between seven clubs since 2012 Also don't ignore Byrd's .290 OBA this past year when declaring that he's been "better than Granderson" (.364); Marlon's going to make a lot more outs given equal time and the small difference in slugging is probably more stadium related (1,000 ABs in Cincy & Philly) And if it's not in the cards because someone offers him a multi-year deal with vague promises of 100+ starts/year well then there's a decent chance he's not coming here.

Re: Granderson
I was referring to the three-year period you cited, where Marlon has a higher BA, more HRs, RBI, and higher OPS. Basically the only thing Curtis has on him is OBP.

Re: Byrd
But absolutely. I'm down with Marlon Byrd. I would love if we could get him. I just remember looking up his numbers a few weeks ago and writing him off thinking someone would give him either a multi-year deal or at least the chance to start.

[Frayed Knot]

OBA is a biggie though, and while the three year gap isn't as big as the one from just last year, it's still sizable and we know it's important to Sandy.
Tack on that plus a speed gap and four years of age difference ...

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: OBA is a biggie though, and while the three year gap isn't as big as the one from just last year, it's still sizable and we know it's important to Sandy. Tack on that plus a speed gap and four years of age difference ...

Understood. And agreed.

How strange is it that you cite to a great candidate, and one of the considerations has to be "Is he too good for us?"