Let's talk about Andrelton Simmons

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'm thinking that any "talk" they had with the Mets on this was along the lines of, "The price is $1 million... but for YOU, old friend, we'll knock that down to $6 million."

Newcomb's a good arm and all, and a former first rounder with elite K numbers... but he's posting 6 BB/9 numbers at AA at age 22, with similar numbers at every level. And he's the centerpiece.

[Ceetar]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Yeah, so I guess he was available. Simmons to the Angels for Aybar and 3 kiddos (2 pitchers and a catcher). Those were Anaheim's top 2 pitchers apparently, so our equivalent of that is probably goes Flores + Matz and maybe more. I'm cool skipping that one.

yup. mea culpa I guess. But it definitely seems like he wasn't really available to the Mets. So this is probably good for the Mets, at least in 2016. More holes to shoot singles by in the Atlanta infield.

[Centerfield]

I have to tell you. I'm still just amazed by this deal. I don't think I've ever underestimated a player's value as much as this.

To me, Andrelton Simmons is nearly a clone of Juan Lagares. Both elite defenders. Both suck at the plate (OPS in the mid .600's). Both have the ability to put up nice WAR numbers because of their defense, but really create a hole in the lineup. Of course, SS is a more elite position than CF, but CF is still pretty fucking important.

So if Simmons has this much value, should we make Lagares available and ask for Jose Fernandez?

I mean, think about this. Tejada and Simmons are nearly identical at the plate. Tejada plays excellent defense. Simmons plays All-World defense. Simmons is a "steal" at 5 years, 53 million. Tejada is a non-tender risk at $2.5 million.

This is crazy.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I think part of the issue is defensive valuation.

In this particular case, that may start with Ruben, who's only excellent with the glove relative to our other options there. He's more "solid" than "excellent," near as I can figure.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: I mean, think about this. Tejada and Simmons are nearly identical at the plate. Tejada plays excellent defense. Simmons plays All-World defense. Simmons is a "steal" at 5 years, 53 million. Tejada is a non-tender risk at $2.5 million. This is crazy.

Well, Tejada is actually better at the plate. Fangraphs has him at wRC+ of 95 (same as Flores) for 2015. Simmons is 82. League average for SS is 85. Tejada's averagish, maybe a tick above, with the glove. Simmons is tops, but hell, if you can't score any runs it doesn't matter how many you prevent.

Seems crazy to me too.

fwiw, checkout the inside edge defense numbers for Simmons vs Tejada and Flores. Surprises me how fast Tejada drops off, range wise.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld≶=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=10847,5519,5827

There were 1359 balls deemed routine, that over 90% of them are turned into outs. Simmons made them into outs roughly 1350 of them. Of all the plays over the entire season, roughly once a month Simmons might miss a routine play. That's of all the weird hops and quick runners.

[Frayed Knot]

Not knowing much about the prospects involved I'm not really sure what to think of this deal other than the obvious of it being another deal where the Braves are looking forward to a payoff about when their new suburban stadium is ready in two years.

John Sickels weighs in here
And, as always, do remember that prospects are simply prospects so that just because the Braves got some potentially good ones doesn't make them the equivalent of Jose Fernandez.
Some of the reader comments (after Sickels' piece) think this is a decidedly BAD trade for Los Bravos.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Simmons is tops, but hell, if you can't score any runs it doesn't matter how many you prevent.

Well, sure it does, accepting for the moment that we're exaggerating on both sides of the equation.

The guy is pretty consistently a 3-bWAR man on defense. In fact, in his four seasons, he's put up 2.4 (in 49 games), 5.4 (in 157), 3.9 (146), and 3.5 (147). Not only are those numbers not seen since Rey's heyday, Ord��ez was much more volatile from season to season. You'd need eight years of healthy Rey-O to get four seasons like that, and the Mets never had no eight years of healthy Rey-O.

Depending on how much faith you have in baseball-reference's defensive numbers, that's exactly the guy you run out there even if he's given you a zero-win, replacement-level bat. And as wanting as his offense has been, he been giving them more than a zero.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: Simmons is tops, but hell, if you can't score any runs it doesn't matter how many you prevent. Well, sure it does, accepting for the moment that we're exaggerating on both sides of the equation. The guy is pretty consistently a 3-bWAR man on defense. In fact, in his four seasons, he's put up 2.4 (in 49 games), 5.4 (in 157), 3.9 (146), and 3.5 (147). Not only are those numbers not seen since Rey's heyday, Ord��ez was much more volatile from season to season. You'd need eight years of healthy Rey-O to get four seasons like that, and the Mets never had no eight years of healthy Rey-O. Depending on how much faith you have in baseball-reference's defensive numbers, that's exactly the guy you run out there even if he's given you a zero-win, replacement level bat. And as wanting as his offense has been, he been giving them more than a zero.

Well yeah, exaggeration. Actually his bat is like, 18% lower than average and below replacement level. A lot depends on how much stock you make in defensive metrics and the related valuation of those metrics. He's certainly a vacuum, but does is that really worth 3 wins? maybe.

It's certainly not break the bank though, imo, and from a Mets standpoint I'd rather the scales be a little more on the offense side given their high K pitchers.