Bleeding Off

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Not a whole lot to debate this spring but there is some question as to who bats lead off for the Mets this year. The Mets appear to want it to be Lagares, but as discussed in the Lagares thread there's reason to doubt whether he'll be any good there. Strictly by the track record I'd probably select Granderson, but the drawback there is that he's the only real choice to break up all the righties in the middle of the lineup. A controversial blog floated the idea of Travis d'Arnaud getting a shot. He probably isn't cut out for the role either, although I'd argue that right now he's better suited for it than Lagares. The drawback of a catcher in that slot is the off-days, and it messing up the whole lineup too often. The other idea is Dilson, and benching or trading Muffy.

Who?

[metirish]

I don't know but I'll go with Dar Know

[Ceetar]

wOBA of the guys still here, in order, from last year

Carlyle, Familia, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Murphy, Granderson, Herrera, d'Arnaud, Lagares, Wright, den Dekker, Campbell, Tejada, Flores, Recker

[TransMonk]

I would give Lagares first shot and make OBP his focus at the plate. I would think the team is wanting Lagares not because he is the best leadoff guy, but because all of the other options make more sense at other spots in the lineup.

If the Mets are going to contend this year, there is going to have to be continued offensive improvement from Laggy, Travis and whoever plays SS. If I'm Terry, I'm pushing Laggy by making the leadoff spot his to lose.

Kirk can be an option on the days he plays, too.

[Frayed Knot]

TransMonk wrote: If I'm Terry, I'm pushing Laggy by making the leadoff spot his to lose.

Terry has pretty much stated that this is going to be his MO this spring.

[Edgy MD]

I'm cool with the plan to work Lagares in there, but part of me doesn't want him set up to fail, so maybe I open the season with Granderson and work Lagares into the leadoff slot two days a week (perhaps against lefties) and increase his time there as merited, until he wins the slot outright.

[metsmarathon]

lagares seems to be the potential future solution, and in fact since 2011 his numbers in the minors seem to suggest that he has it in him to get on base at a good clip, but i'm not sure that it's sustainable.

i don't think i want to put the pressure on either of the young'uns flores and d'arnaud.

that leaves me with granderson, wright, cuddy, duda, and murphy.

granderson might be ok there, as he can draw a walk, but his average is so low that his obp is going to be suboptimal. batting him leadoff might be the trick to get him to display more plate discipline, but at this point, i think that he is what he is, and that is a 5- or 6-hitter.

cuddy throws up some good OBP numbers, with some less-than-zero speed on hte basepaths. he wouldn't be awful, but he would be better batting lower in teh lineup, at whichever 5-or 6-spot granderson isn't occupying, and pending of course what hte kids do.

wright and duda, well, i think we all know where they should be batting. 3 & 4.

that leaves me with murphy. yeah, i'm going to nominate him for hte job. he's more of an ideal 2-hitter, but i feel like he does have the obp tool in his kit, he just needs to dust it off.

[Edgy MD]

One factor in my mind is that with a seeming better solution (Herrera) on the horizon, and a seeming far better solution (Nimmo) just across the valley, the Mets don't need to turn him into the leadoff dude of the future. To me, he's either the answer right now or he isn't the answer at all.

[Frayed Knot]

metsmarathon wrote: lagares seems to be the potential future solution, and in fact since 2011 his numbers in the minors seem to suggest that he has it in him to get on base at a good clip, but i'm not sure that it's sustainable.

Yeah, the sustainability is the biggest question.
He had merely OK OBP numbers in the minors (.322 over pieces of 9 seasons across every level) and did it with walk rates barely better than half of what you'd prefer to see.
That means his OBP was -- and has been at the ML level also -- very BA-dependant. So if those 2-strike pokes to RF stop finding holes ...

[Theoldmole]

I went with Grandy.

[Vic Sage]

that leaves me with murphy. yeah, i'm going to nominate him for hte job. he's more of an ideal 2-hitter, but i feel like he does have the obp tool in his kit, he just needs to dust it off.

i suggested this in another thread and was met by a less than enthusiastic response. But his lifetime OB% of .333 (it was .332 last year) is higher than the league average for OB% among leadoff hitters (.327) and is in the .330-.340 range that Terry was quoted as looking for. Is he ideal? Of course not. But better suited than Lagares, at least at this point in their careers. I would bat Lagares 9th and move everybody up a slot (more or less). I also don't think it makes a huge difference one way or the other.

1) Murphy
2) Cuddyer
3) Wright
4) duda
5) D'arnaud
6) granderson
7) Flores
8) [pitcher]
9) Lagares

[TransMonk]

Vic Sage wrote: 1) Murphy 2) Cuddyer 3) Wright 4) duda 5) D'arnaud 6) granderson 7) Flores 8) [pitcher] 9) Lagares

I could get behind this lineup.

[metsmarathon]

i'd like to look at one of the kids in the 2-hole, but otherwise, i'm pretty OK with vic's lineup. especially the double-leadoff thingy that it presents.

[Ceetar]

metsmarathon wrote: i'd like to look at one of the kids in the 2-hole, but otherwise, i'm pretty OK with vic's lineup. especially the double-leadoff thingy that it presents.

especially helpful if we swap out the P for a DH.

[Frayed Knot]

Muffy is in a similar boat as Lagares in that his OBA is also mostly tied up in his BA (walk rates for both about 40 pts.) but the difference is that he has a longer track record of sustaining and therefore repeating it.
I suspect Terry favors Lagares due to his better speed although that would be unfortunate if Juan can't show that he can get his OBA up. My problem with Murphy up top isn't the average-ness of his foot speed as much as it is the dunderheadedness of his running choices.

But, unless and until a better option comes along, I'm with Vic's lineup as well.
That said there was an article over the weekend somewhere that talked about new hitting coach Kevin Long's predictions for a "monster year" from Murph (including increased power output) but let's wait on that before we take it to the bank.

[Edgy MD]

My problem with Murphy is we've likely seen his ceiling, although Kevin Long is thinking bigger.

�Murphy,�� he said. �A batting title is not out of his grasp. �He�s got a lot of pop and a lot of potential. There is more ability in there and we are going to try to draw it out.��

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

MARK IT DOWN, DUDE: Come midyear, Everybody's Talkin' about Dilson Shmilson.