There's a 5% chance

[Zvon]

The price isn't going up. The only way the Rockies get anything for Tulo other than a hole in their pocket is to give us a pile of money to take him. We presumably have the prospects they need: How many others do? That's something worth finding out. Bingo. IMO. I liked that article in one of the NY rags today about the Pads eating 29% of his contract, and how if the Rockies did the same we'd be paying Tulo around 15mill a season (82total), which is a great deal. I don't imagine they do that for Montero or down, so it could mean Noah or Wheeler. I'm very leery about that, cuz if we go into 'win now' mode, and Tulo gets hurt and we don't win, it'll be a devastating downer. A devastating downer as opposed to what? The last six seasons.

To my expectations.
My expectations for 2015 are pretty high w/o Tulo. With him, they go thru the roof. If the Mets get him, he's out for a month and the team tanks, that to me would be kinda devastating. Ed has a good point but it all depends on who will be on the bench when the season starts.

If we did get Tulo, who would be his backup? Tejada or Flores?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Honestly, I think Flores looks better to me as a supersub with OR without Tulo.

[Guest d'Kong76]

during last week�s Winter Meetings, the Rockies wanted three or four top players � some current major leaguers, some prospects still in the minors � and also wanted the Mets to assume the entire $118 million that Tulowitzki has guaranteed through 2020.

When I said the price was going up it was in response
to this.

[Zvon]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Honestly, I think Flores looks better to me as a supersub with OR without Tulo.

But as far as short goes (if we got Tulo, which more than likely we are not going to) aren't we looking for a glove off the bench as a late inning replacement? I don't think of Flores when I think of that role. And that's not saying that Flores would have no role on this team. Just not that one.

[Edgy MD]

The Mets have a good season but fail to get over the top because of an injury, I can live with that. Been there plenty.

If it's an effective move, it's an effective move, whether the team is otherwise expected to win 100 games or 50.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Zvon wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Honestly, I think Flores looks better to me as a supersub with OR without Tulo. But as far as short goes (if we got Tulo, which more than likely we are not going to) aren't we looking for a glove off the bench as a late inning replacement? I don't think of Flores when I think of that role. And that's not saying that Flores would have no role on this team. Just not that one.

If you have a defensively-strong starter-- which we can obtain in Tulo OR, more cheaply, say... Stephen Drew?-- why would you need a late-innings-defense-first guy on your bench? A guy with a bat (ostensibly) who can fake a bunch of positions is SO much more useful.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I don't know how he's going to come out on the other side of surgery, but Tulowitzki has generally been highly regarded as a shortstop.

[Zvon]

Edgy MD wrote: The Mets have a good season but fail to get over the top because of an injury, I can live with that. Been there plenty. If it's an effective move, it's an effective move, whether the team is otherwise expected to win 100 games or 50.

I can live with that too. We all could live w/it...we've all been Mets fans for 20-50 years. So we will persevere.
I'm talking about getting asses in the seats. Selling tickets. Filling up Citi every weekend. But I suppose if we have a good season, that will follow.

I'm almost sold. Depends on who is involved and I might be tempted to go above the Montero Line. But only for Gee, Colon, or Noah(being nice by including Gee & Colon in the talks).

[MFS62]

If you plot the odds on a typical bell shaped curve, it might look something like this:

Probable: 2%
Likely Probable 9%
Probably probable 13%
Somewhat Probable 27%
Sort of Unlikely 29%
Kind of Unlikely 11%
Probably Unlikely 7%
Unlikely 3%

Which means I chalk it up as a definite maybe.

Later

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Wrong side of 30, injured, Denver numbers, owed a lot of money? Seems like Troy Tulowitzki's Mets' career has a high chance of going down in history alongside Jim Fregosi, George Foster, Bobby Bonilla, Roberto Alomar, and Tom Glavine. I vote no.

[Edgy MD]

Most of those guys didn't come in owed a particularly large amount of money. Some signed with the Mets themselves for a nice chunk. Alomar had a solid contract, but not out of whack with where his career was.

The Mets have done a mostly good job of not taking on other teams' bloated contracts at full freight. Most notable exceptions I can think of are Mo Vaughn and Jeromy Burnitz. Carlos Delgado too.

I mostly doubt this deal goes down at all. If it does, I feel confident that it won't be at full freight.

[Frayed Knot]

If you plot the odds on a typical bell shaped curve, it might look something like this:

As long as it doesn't resemble a Heath Bell curve - cuz man that would be one odd looking graph!

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I mostly doubt this deal goes down at all. If it does, I feel confident that it won't be at full freight.

I suspect those are related. It's not going to go down because Colorado is asking for the moon and isn't going to back down.