Standing for something

[Edgy MD]

Strange to realize after all the team has been through (and put themselves and yourselves through) in recent weeks ---

• the slogfest at Philly,
  
• the double sweeps, including one to the Cubs,
  
• the bigshot catching prospect playing himself back to the farm,
  
• the bigshot pitching prospect being wilder than a jungle movie,
  
• the star thirdbaseman enjoying the mother of all slumps,
  
• two leadoff hitters in a row getting disabled, and
  
• two old and overweight Venezuelans who you thought a year ago were out of baseball emerging as, for now, the team's two most reliable players ---

the Mets could still find themselves four and a half games out of first tonight if the Angels do their angelic duty and hang on for the win over Atlanta (Anaheim currently up 3-0).

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Atlanta	35	32	.522	�	�
Miami	35	33	.515	0.5	0.5
Washington	35	33	.515	0.5	0.5
YOUR New York Mets	31	38	.449	5.0	14.0
Philadelphia	29	38	.433	6.0	18.0

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
St. Louis	37	32	.536	-1.0	-1.0
Los Angeles	37	34	.521	�	�
Miami	35	33	.515	0.5	0.5
Washington	35	33	.515	0.5	0.5
Colorado	34	35	.493	2.0	5.0
Pittsburgh	34	35	.493	2.0	5.0
Cincinnati	33	35	.485	2.5	7.5
YOUR New York Mets	31	38	.449	5.0	22.5
Philadelphia	29	38	.433	6.0	29.5
San Diego	29	40	.420	7.0	37.5
Chicago	28	39	.418	7.0	37.5
Arizona	30	42	.417	7.5	42.5

[metirish]

Wow, I would never have thought that, as bad as they have been, a run of sorts is what is needed

[Frayed Knot]

Will be a three-way tie for the top of the division if LAA holds on to their current lead (although it's slipping away as I type).

[Edgy MD]

Stupid Angels.

[Edgy MD]

Squeezing one or both those Ozuna runners home would have certainly meant something. Nonethless, the team remains in a position to make a move. It's just that (1) it's increasingly hard to picture what that run would look like, and (2) they remain closer to the dog on their tails than to to the gate out of the yard.

Enjoy your days off, men. Oakland will be a new test, as little impact as the games may have on the standings.

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Washington	39	35	.527	�	�
Atlanta	38	37	.507	1.5	1.5
Miami	37	38	.493	2.5	3.5
YOUR New York Mets	35	41	.461	5.0	11.0
Philadelphia	34	40	.459	5.0	11.0

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Los Angeles	42	35	.545	-0.5	-0.5
St. Louis	41	35	.539	�	�
Atlanta	38	37	.507	2.5	2.5
Cincinnati	37	37	.500	3.0	3.5
Miami	37	38	.493	3.5	5.0
Pittsburgh	37	38	.493	3.5	5.0
YOUR New York Mets	35	41	.461	6.0	17.5
Philadelphia	34	40	.459	6.0	17.5
Colorado	34	41	.453	6.5	21.0
Chicago	31	42	.425	8.5	37.0
San Diego	32	44	.421	9.0	41.5
Arizona	32	47	.405	10.5	56.5

[Frayed Knot]

A look at the NL East standings through Run Differential - with actual records and projected (pythagorean) records based on RS/RA

TEAM	RS/RA	ACTUAL	PROJ
WASH	+40	39 - 35	42 - 32 (1st)
ATL	-14	38 - 37	36 - 39 (4th)
MIA	+1	37 - 38	38 - 37 (2nd)
PHIL	-26	34 - 40	34 - 40 (5th)
NYM	-2	35 - 41	38 - 38 (3rd)

[Edgy MD]

A split with a very tough team and they lose a hair in the division and wild card standings. At least they squeak ahead of Philadelphia.

Pack seems to be hovering about three wins ahead of them right now. That would be a nice place to get to. The neext team immediately ahead of them is Ike Davis' Buccos, who they now go and visit.

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Washington	41	36	.532	�	�
Atlanta	40	37	.519	1.0	1.0
Miami	39	39	.500	2.5	4.0
YOUR New York Mets	36	42	.462	5.5	13.0
Philadelphia	35	42	.455	6.0	15.0

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Los Angeles	44	36	.550	-0.5	-0.5
St. Louis	43	36	.544	�	�
Atlanta	40	37	.519	2.0	2.0
Cincinnati	39	38	.506	3.0	4.0
Miami	39	39	.500	3.5	5.5
Pittsburgh	39	39	.500	3.5	5.5
YOUR New York Mets	36	42	.462	6.5	20.5
Philadelphia	35	42	.455	7.0	23.5
Colorado	35	43	.449	7.5	27.0
San Diego	34	45	.430	9.0	39.0
Chicago	32	44	.421	9.5	43.5
Arizona	33	48	.407	11.0	58.5

[batmagadanleadoff]

So the Mets are in last place, but only 5 and a half games out in a division that no one apparently wants to win and is starting to look more and more like the 1973 NL East. You could say the Mets are in it. Or you can say that even at only 5.5 games out, they're still on pace to finish close to 15 games out by season's end.

My vote for most interesting 2014 Met to watch goes to Bartolo Colon. He might pitch a no-hitter, or just as likely, explode like an over-inflated balloon.

[Frayed Knot]

By all rights--and especially by the sacred word of both Pythagoras of Samos and Bill Jamesoras of Kansas--the NY East should be a division more spread out than it is, with a clear leader, a clear bottom-feeder, and a three-way scrum for the best of the middle that'll have trouble producing a Wild Card candidate.
I suspect it'll eventually wind up that way: Washington is now (mostly) healthy and has such a clear runs lead that I think they'll pull away and make this not very close by September; I'm not impressed at all with Atlanta as I don't see where an increase in their runs scored are going to come from; Miami is supposedly in a 'Go For It' mode but I'm not sure what that means realistically; and the Phils are more likely to shed parts than take new ones on.


Below show each team's up to date RS/RA, their current spot and GB in the standings, and where they would be if everyone were obedient to Greeks and geeks.

TEAM	RS/RA	POS	PROJ
WASH	+56	T1 --	1st ---
ATL	+5	T1 --	2nd -6
MIA	-4	3rd -5.5	4th -7.5
NYM	+4	4th -8.0	3rd -7.0
PHI	-42	5th -9.0	5th -12.0

[Edgy MD]

Atlanta has a bullpen that can shorten games. That's got to frustrate Pythagoras at least a little.

[Edgy MD]

It's not just the division that's tight, but the whole league, with basement dwellers like Philly and San Diego getting hot, things just tightened up a little more, with everybody within 13-ish games of each other. Thanks to Philly's run, the Mets success against Atlanta has been as much about staying out of last as it has been about closing ground on the division leaders.

Anyjuice, they skidded out after my last update in this thread, and even taking three of four from Atlanta, they still haven't recovered.

Within long-range striking distance of Miami, though. Let's have a big weekend.

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Washington	49	41	.544	�	�
Atlanta	50	42	.543	0.0	0.0
Miami	44	47	.484	5.5	11.0
YOUR New York Mets	42	50	.457	8.0	18.5
Philadelphia	41	51	.446	9.0	22.5

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Atlanta	50	42	.543	�	�
San Francisco	50	42	.543	�	�
St. Louis	50	43	.538	0.5	0.5
Cincinnati	49	43	.533	1.0	1.5
Pittsburgh	48	44	.522	2.0	4.5
Miami	44	47	.484	5.5	18.5
YOUR New York Mets	42	50	.457	8.0	31.0
Philadelphia	41	51	.446	9.0	37.0
San Diego	40	52	.435	10.0	44.0
Chicago	39	52	.429	10.5	48.0
Colorado	39	53	.424	11.0	52.5
Arizona	39	54	.419	11.5	57.5

[Centerfield]

I can't believe how bad Colorado is. They looked unbeatable when we saw them.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: I can't believe how bad Colorado is. They looked unbeatable when we saw them.

Lots of teams look unbeatable against the Mets ... and then suddenly, they're not.
Funny how that happens.


But, yeah, there is seemingly a huge disconnect between the Rox early and now, as posed to say the Cubs who, despite sweeping us, looked barely competent while doing so.
And even with Atlanta, who the Mets have effectively played to a standstill (6-7; dead even in RS/RA) this season no matter how much the reputation continues that we're their beyotches, seem lucky to be as close to the top as they are.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Atlanta has a bullpen that can shorten games. That's got to frustrate Pythagoras at least a little.

Yeah, but no better than Washington who are busy frustrating Pythagaras in the other direction.

ATL Relievers-Against: .237/.312/.328; ERA = 3.17; WHiP = 1.28
WAS Relievers-Against: .229/.300/.332; ERA = 2.68; WHiP = 1.19

And Soriano is having every bit the season Kimbrel is - shade better statistically in fact.
Wonder if the differences in rep there (amongst fans, media, ASG votes) is another example of the surly (or at least the impression of being so), black, non-English speaker vs white guy gap.



The bullpen angle is one that folks usually first look to when finding variations from Pythagorean predictions, but I wonder how often that argument actually holds up.

[Edgy MD]

It's one thing. And there's the bullpen and the bullpen. I don't know if it matters in this case, but a bullpen can have a middling ERA because the back end has coughed up runs in blowouts, while the best two or three are still impenetrable with leads.

Obviously, the extent is speculative. Another thing I guess (and yeah, I'm speculating) can help a team outperform Pythagorean projections is a solid defense, which Atlanta has most of the way around the diamond.

[Edgy MD]

Pretty glorious night. Not only did the Mets win, but every team ahead of them in the division standings lost, knocking a game off their deficit and three off their net deficit.

In the Wild Card race, three of six teams ahead of them lost, knocking three games off their 31-game net deficit.

[Edgy MD]

Unfortunately, Philadelphia hasn't been cooperating with the Mets recent surge, losing the last two to Washington, so while the Mets have knocked four and a half games off their deficit in the Net column since our update before this series, they've only gained a single game in the Games Back Column.

Next team to set your sights on is Pittsburgh, four games ahead in the Wild Card. They, like the Mets, open after the break against a bottom-feeder --- the Rockies. Hope that Colorado finds themselves.

The Marlins, now a hair behind the Mets, open against the Giants, current Wild Card co-leaders, on Friday. Root Miami!

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Washington	51	42	.548	�	�
Atlanta	52	43	.547	0.0	0.0
YOUR New York Mets	45	50	.474	7.0	14.0
Miami	44	50	.468	7.5	15.5
Philadelphia	42	53	.442	10.0	25.5

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Atlanta	52	43	.547	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	52	43	.547	�	�
St. Louis	52	44	.542	0.5	0.5
Cincinnati	51	44	.537	1.0	1.5
Pittsburgh	49	46	.516	3.0	7.5
YOUR New York Mets	45	50	.474	7.0	23.5
Miami	44	50	.468	7.5	26.0
Philadelphia	42	53	.442	10.0	41.0
San Diego	41	54	.432	11.0	48.0
Chicago	40	54	.426	11.5	52.0
Colorado	40	55	.421	12.0	56.5
Arizona	40	56	.417	12.5	61.5

[Edgy MD]

Notes on standings:

• Los Angeles has ceded first place in the West to the San Franciscos, who don't look so hot on paper and deserve a lot of credit, so they are now your Wild Card co-leaders along with the Braves.
  
  
  
• The Pirates, who were directly in front of the Mets when we last updated, have come out of the break swinging their cutlasses, leapfrogging a lot of red seas in the last week, passing St. Louis and Cincinnati.
  
  
  
• The Reds are now what the Mets and their supporters need to fix their gaze on. Those very same Redlegs have lost six in a row, including three to these division-leading Brewers we're about to up against. They take their scarlet hosery back home next to host the Nats. So if we TCB against the Brewers (no small task), we'll gain in one race or the other.
  
  
  
• The Roxx, who we could do almost nothing against when we visited them earlier in the season, opened the second half by dropping five straight, allowing Philadelphia, Chicago, and Arizona to all pass them. They now have the worst record in the league, and you can hardly blame rival GMs hoping to pick some meat off of their corpse. Rumors speak of bitter philosophical differences between manager Walt Weiss and the suits over him. Something's likely to give soon in the leadership, and one wonders if playing personnel could follow any leadership change.
  
  
  
• Mets have lost one game (but only one game net) in the Eastern Division standings since the new season started. Tough time to be going up against a hot division leader like Milwaukee as they fight for their continued existence, but it's a competitive business. The good news is that they've treaded water in the GB column and gained an invisible but very real game and a half in the NGB column in Wild Card standings. Hopefully Sandy notes that.

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Washington	55	44	.556	�	�
Atlanta	55	46	.545	1.0	1.0
YOUR New York Mets	48	53	.475	8.0	15.0
Miami	47	53	.470	8.5	16.5
Philadelphia	43	58	.426	13.0	34.5

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Atlanta	55	46	.545	�	�
Los Angeles	56	47	.544	�	�
Pittsburgh	54	47	.535	1.0	1.0
St. Louis	54	47	.535	1.0	1.0
Cincinnati	51	50	.505	4.0	10.0
YOUR New York Mets	48	53	.475	7.0	22.0
Miami	47	53	.470	7.5	24.5
San Diego	44	56	.440	10.5	42.5
Arizona	44	58	.431	11.5	49.5
Philadelphia	43	58	.426	12.0	53.5
Chicago	41	58	.414	13.0	62.5
Colorado	41	60	.406	14.0	72.5

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Tulowitzski onto the DL for the Rockies too. Smell them later.

To my way of thinking, Mets (and SHaMs) have twice been on the brink of completely falling out of it -- when they began that last series vs. Bravos at home, and just yesterday where they were staring at 2-4 vs. so-so competition out of the ASB and they've come through both times.

No question they can't afford fewer than 2 wins this weekend.

[Frayed Knot]

The Reds have been sub-.500 in each month this year except for June when they somehow turned in an 18-10. Now they find themselves missing both Votto & Brandon Phillips which obviously blows a big whole in their lineup.
But even beyond that, they just plain look awful all around. I saw maybe 4 innings of them in the last week or so but it was enough to witness Chapman blow a game and their D drop at least three pop-ups.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

6 in a row dropped for the Chili-Scarfers-- including the last three to a not-so-hot-of-late Brew Crew-- and, yeah, they haven't looked at all competitive in doing so.

[TransMonk]

I think the Reds have the best pitching in the NL Central, but they have to find a way to get all the pieces in their lineup active at the same time in order to make a run.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Eff the Reds, by the way. They're becoming to me like some half-assed version of the Cardinals.

[Frayed Knot]

Nothing to do with the NL, but do you know who else suxx? ... the Rangers! They just scored a whopping total of EIGHT runs vs the Yanx while losing three times in a four-game series.
Yeah they were shorted four innings there by Wednesday's rain-out (which inconveniently came during a Darvish start) but they still suck and are now in last place three games behind Houston (who would have called THAT prior to the season?)

[Edgy MD]

First the bad news: While we may be happy to get away with a split against the top team that is Milwaukee, the Marlins were beating the snot out of the Astros, so they took this happy time to pull a game and a half ahead of the Mets. Even Philadelphia, who I fully expect to struggle for the next several years, has been closing ground. Time to put a stop to that.

Then the not-so-bad news: The Mets have held steady in the Wild Card race, maintaining their seven-game defecit, while losing only one game of ground in the NGB column. Still not heading in the right direction, though.

A glorious time to be free right now. Let's express that joyous freedom with a romp over Philadelphia. Miami heads to Washington, so if the Mets TCB, they'll gain on somebody.

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Washington	57	45	.559	�	�
Atlanta	57	48	.543	1.5	1.5
Miami	51	53	.490	7.0	12.5
YOUR New York Mets	50	55	.476	8.5	17.0
Philadelphia	46	59	.438	12.5	33.0

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
San Francisco	57	48	.543	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	57	48	.543	�	�
St. Louis	56	48	.538	0.5	0.5
Pittsburgh	55	49	.529	1.5	2.5
Cincinnati	52	52	.500	4.5	11.5
Miami	51	53	.490	5.5	15.5
YOUR New York Mets	50	55	.476	7.0	23.0
San Diego	46	58	.442	10.5	44.0
Philadelphia	46	59	.438	11.0	47.5
Arizona	45	60	.429	12.0	55.5
Colorado	53	61	.465	8.5	24.0
Chicago	52	61	.460	9.0	29.0

[Edgy MD]

Marlins keep pace with the Mets as both win their series, but they both gain a game on Washington and Atlanta. Two games shaved off in the net column.

On the Wild side, the Mets move up one in the GB column and a giddy 3.5 in the NGB column. Hard to see if this a more realistic dream than the division. But Pittsburgh, who was just within striking distance of the Mets coming out the break, is now within a half a game of WC leaders San Francisco and Atlanta. If they can do it, so can the Mets, who, you may have heard, have the current advantage at first base.

Jockeying among the pack behind Mets, but nobody gains on them. We should basically be root-root-rooting for the Padres/Diamondbacks/Phillies/Cubs/Rockies at this point, because if any of them were to actually challenge the Mets in the standings, the jig would be up. So consider them allies in picking off frontrunners.

As the Mets follow an off-day with a three game tilt against Wild Card leaders San Fran, the Marlins lock up starting today for four games against the Reds. As both sit a game and a half in front of the Mets, at least one will be available for the picking. Again, that's IF the Mets TCB. I find myself forced to tell you to suck it up and root for the Reds here, as Miami sits in front of us in two races. And the Marlins are young and talented, but green. Can't let a team like that keep building up cahnfidence.

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Washington	58	47	.552	�	�
Atlanta	58	50	.537	1.5	1.5
Miami	53	54	.495	6.0	10.5
YOUR New York Mets	52	56	.481	7.5	15.0
Philadelphia	47	61	.435	12.5	35.0

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
San Francisco	58	50	.537	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	58	50	.537	�	�
Pittsburgh	57	50	.533	0.5	0.5
St. Louis	56	50	.528	1.0	1.5
Cincinnati	53	54	.495	4.5	12.0
Miami	53	54	.495	4.5	12.0
YOUR New York Mets	52	56	.481	6.0	19.5
San Diego	48	59	.449	9.5	40.5
Arizona	47	61	.435	11.0	51.0
Philadelphia	47	61	.435	11.0	51.0
Chicago	44	62	.415	13.0	69.0
Colorado	44	63	.411	13.5	74.0

[Frayed Knot]

Lost weekend, hell, lost WEEK, for the Braves out in SoCal as they first got themselves swept out of LA and then got swept out of SD, scoring a total of just 13 runs in the process.
Three of the six losses came via extra-inning walk-offs (like there's any other way to lose an extra-inning game on the road).

Marlins lost 3 of 4 to Cincy.
Nats and Phils split their four-game series.


Rest of the division gets the day off tomorrow while we finish things off w/San Fran, with the exception of the Nats hosting a one-game make-up with the Orioles.

[Edgy MD]

Hesitant to post a standings update after a lousy series, but it's modestly heartening to find the team still in control of their fates --- just with, you know, four fewer games to control it.

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
Washington	60	50	.545	�	�
Atlanta	58	54	.518	3.0	3.0
Miami	54	57	.486	6.5	10.0
YOUR New York Mets	53	59	.473	8.0	14.5
Philadelphia	49	63	.438	12.0	30.5

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	NGB
San Francisco	61	51	.545	-1.0	-1.0
St. Louis	59	51	.536	�	�
Pittsburgh	59	52	.532	0.5	0.5
Atlanta	58	54	.518	2.0	3.5
Cincinnati	56	56	.500	4.0	9.5
Miami	54	57	.486	5.5	15.5
YOUR New York Mets	53	59	.473	7.0	23.0
San Diego	51	60	.459	8.5	32.0
Arizona	49	63	.438	11.0	49.5
Philadelphia	49	63	.438	11.0	49.5
Chicago	47	63	.427	12.0	58.5
Colorado	44	67	.396	15.5	93.5

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Hesitant to post a standings update after a lousy series, but it's modestly heartening to find the team still in control of their fates

It's only August 5th. Why wouldn't the Mets still control their destiny?

Even the '62 Mets were still alive mathematically on August 5th.

[Edgy MD]

Because I wasn't speaking merely literally, Se�or Literal.