IGT 7/22/2013: ATL @ NYM -- The Spirit Is Dillon

[metirish]

Worst loss of the season? , probably not but it sure as hell sucked......

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Edgy MD wrote: Bad game for us, but great baseball. All of Terrys moves were working out fine. Got the ball to Parnell with a lead. Parnell was due, I guess. I don't buy into this "Parnell has finally become a real closer" club. Its the big games where he has to be the most effective. Its not a back breaking loss. But it would have been a wonderful win, and should have been. Score more runs True enough. With regards to all Terry's moves, forgetting for a moment that Justin Turner ripped the ball against a clearly gassed Kimbrel, was it the right move to pinch-run Brown and end up with a fresh-off-the-DL Turner as your last hope, instead of going the other way? Not that Turner is even particuarly fast, but infielder standards, and maybe coming off the intercostal strain, he's even less of a weapon on the bases, but Brown is there to hit, and Turner is there to do the utility stuff. Second question: Was Heyward even correct to dive there? If that ball splits the outfielders, Quintanilla scores from first with the walkoff winner. On the other hand, maybe that ball hits the wet turf and dies. Did it look like Johnson had the play backed up?

Live, Turner's ball didn't look ripped - more of a medium fly that seemed to be headed for trouble - but that's not really the issue. The move I question is using Lagares to hit for Nooey in the seventh. It meant one less chip for the very late innings, plus it removes your second-best defensive outfielder from a 1-0 game. If he lets Nooey take his swings he could have run Lagares for Buck, which is a real speed upgrade, and then had Nooey up against Kimbrel in the ninth and Brown and Turner available to PH.

And yes, Johnson was heading behind Hayward full speed. You never know where the ball ends up when a guy dives like that, but Johnson was where he was supposed to be.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I had no prob with the Lagares pinch-hit there. Terry has zero faith in Niuewy vs. LHP, and it got our best defensive CF into the last innings of a 1-0 game.

[Zvon]

I liked the Laggy move. If you are gonna go with a platoon, stick with it. Esp when you get a chance to get the better hitting of the two into the game. The early moves worked out for Terry because the guys all did what they were supposed to do. And they almost continued to do it in the 9th. I think Collins made all the right moves in this one.

Bucks passed ball was big, but what was the story there? Crossed up?

On Heyward the diving catch: I didn't think he was going to close the gap between him and the ball. Knowing how he fields, and that he was in center this time, I didn't think it possible. And when he went into the dive, maybe because of earlier events in the game, I expected it to get by him. There was no way he was gonna catch it. When it landed in his glove and stayed there- I even waited a few heartbeats because I was sure the ball would fall from his glove- I was in shock.
The play was well backed up. That's not to say that it might not still have rolled to the wall, because the left fielder was by Jason and the play and would have had to circle back (iirc). One run would have scored with ease.
When you say "should he have dived?", not knowing the outcome- yes, he had to make that catch and he knew it. And he made it.

[Frayed Knot]

When Heyward caught that ball I'm thinking that not only did the substitute CFer catch it, but one who happened to be 6' 5" and left-handed.
You never know where a different CF might have been on that play, but if Heyward is neither that tall nor playing with a glove on his right hand he doesn't snag it.
Then again, in those type of one-run games you can drive yourself nuts doing what-if.

[Edgy MD]

It's also worth noting that the brand of baseball played in the ninth was very different from your standard game, and a ton of X-factors are at play.

[Ceetar]

Swan Swan H wrote: Live, Turner's ball didn't look ripped - more of a medium fly that seemed to be headed for trouble - but that's not really the issue. The move I question is using Lagares to hit for Nooey in the seventh. It meant one less chip for the very late innings, plus it removes your second-best defensive outfielder from a 1-0 game. If he lets Nooey take his swings he could have run Lagares for Buck, which is a real speed upgrade, and then had Nooey up against Kimbrel in the ninth and Brown and Turner available to PH. And yes, Johnson was heading behind Hayward full speed. You never know where the ball ends up when a guy dives like that, but Johnson was where he was supposed to be.

It was hard hit but was clearly hit in the air so there was going to be hang time. Turner just generally doesn't have the power to flick it to the wall, Brown takes that same swing it's to the track and down. Heyward was shifted the other way, so he ran real far to get there. I didn't see a replay but I'm sure the winning run ran just as far and was around third by that time. 2-outs and all, gotta dive.

I agree on pinch-hitting Lagares there. I hate the idea of the platoon out there because I'd like to see both guys, Kirk more than Juan personally, as much as possible no matter how well Young and Byrd are doing. I almost want them to trade Byrd for literally nothing just to open up that spot. (And Duda will probably be back in a couple of weeks too.) It seemed like Terry was confident in the one run (And fine, it's Parnell, but Hawkins hadn't pitched yet) and wanted to take his shot there, in the 7th, never knowing what else could happen. But it led to the lesser matchup in the 9th against a struggling, wet closer in a key situation. He blew his managerial load in the 7th and was unloaded in the 9th.

[Edgy MD]

The platoon is working. It hopefully won't be necessary forever, but those two guys, outside of platoon protection, ain't working.

[list:2p39w8i2]Lagares vs Righties: .243 /.253 /.324 // .578
Lagares vs Lefties: .278 / .305 / .456 // .761
Nieuwenhuis vs. Righties: .222 / .312 / .395 // .707
Nieuwenhuis vs Lefties: .000 / .111 / .000 // .111[/list:u:2p39w8i2]

Let's not confuse Terry with anything else. Even if Byrd disappeared tomorrow, the platoon would/should likely/hopefully stay mostly intact, with Brown and Duda taking most of his time.

[Ceetar]

• Lagares vs Righties: .243 /.253 /.324 // .578
  Lagares vs Lefties: .278 / .305 / .456 // .761
  Nieuwenhuis vs. Righties: .222 / .312 / .395 // .707
  Nieuwenhuis vs Lefties: .000 / .111 / .000 // .111

Let's not confuse Terry with anything else. Even if Byrd disappeared tomorrow, the platoon would/should likely/hopefully stay mostly intact, with Brown and Duda taking most of his time.

Edgy MD wrote: The platoon is working. It hopefully won't be necessary forever, but those two guys, outside of platoon protection, ain't working.

sample size sample size sample size.

[Edgy MD]

Nieuwie couldn't touch lefties last season either.

There's a long precedent for working young players in by initially placing them in situations where they are most likely to perform, and then expanding their role as they demonstrate their ability.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Nieuwie couldn't touch lefties last season either. There's a long precedent for working young players in by initially placing them in situations where they are most likely to perform, and then expanding their role as they demonstrate their ability.

Is there a long precedent? Suggestive results? Or is it just one of those things baseball managers do? Maybe the best way to get Nieuwenhuis to his lefties is to play him against lefties. repetition after all.. Or is the best time for him to learn to hit them after months of not seeing them at all? I remain unconvinced that 82 PA across two years means anything useful.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Edgy MD wrote: Nieuwie couldn't touch lefties last season either. There's a long precedent for working young players in by initially placing them in situations where they are most likely to perform, and then expanding their role as they demonstrate their ability.

Not disagreeing with the concept, I just think Terry was a bit short-sighted and when he had to play catch-up in the ninth he ate the shit end of the stick.

Lagares is a better CF than Nooey. Nooey is a better LF than EY, with a much better arm. The gain of Lagares over Nooey in a one-out, none-on situation is less, to my mind, than potentially having Lagares around for defense, or pinch-running, and having Nooey in the game to replace EY in left and face the righties that would follow Avilan.

So, we ended up with Lagares facing Kimbrel. If we're talking about putting guys in situations where they are most likely to perform, that ain't it.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Is there a long precedent?

Yes.

Ceetar wrote: Suggestive results?

As New Order says, I'm not sure what this could mean.

Ceetar wrote: Or is it just one of those things baseball managers do?

Ergo, a long precedent.

Ceetar wrote: Maybe the best way to get Nieuwenhuis to his lefties is to play him against lefties. repetition after all..

Maybe it is. And maybe you burn a few years trying that.

Or alternatively, you play guys in situations where they succeed and try to work guys into situations that they've failed in when you find low-leverage opportunities --- blowouts and late in the season. This was neither.

Ceetar wrote: Or is the best time for him to learn to hit them...

I understand that you contend that he doesn't have to learn to do it. That he certainly can, current evidence be damned.

Ceetar wrote: ...after months of not seeing them at all?

He's seen plenty in the minors, and he'll see more.

Ceetar wrote: I remain unconvinced that 82 PA across two years means anything useful.

Terry's been in this organization for four years and probably has seen and considered more than 82 plate appearances. And now, he's got games to win.

[Edgy MD]

I just think Terry was a bit short-sighted and when he had to play catch-up in the ninth he ate the shit end of the stick.

You've got a choice. Nieuwie vs. a lefty (a minus) plus the chance that he may face a righty later versus Lagares vs. a lefty (a plus) plus the bump in defense, minus the chance that he may face a righty later, minus the bench shortened by one guy.

The Let's Make a Deal test seems to fall to Terry here.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Edgy MD wrote: I just think Terry was a bit short-sighted and when he had to play catch-up in the ninth he ate the shit end of the stick. You've got a choice. Nieuwie vs. a lefty (a minus) plus the chance that he may face a righty later versus Lagares vs. a lefty (a plus) plus the bump in defense, minus the chance that he may face a righty later, minus the bench shortened by one guy. The Let's Make a Deal test seems to fall to Terry here.

It's all in how you value each piece. I still wouldn't do it, and I said so to my son when I saw Lagares walking toward the plate last night. I'd have let Nooey hit, then if they still had the lead in the ninth put Lagares in CF and moved Nooey to LF. That's two bumps in defense, and even without the Lagares AB v. Kimbrel it makes sense to me.

[Zvon]

Looks like the left fielder was not past Hayward and in better position than I thought. Smaller chance of it getting past him to the wall, and like Ed said, not sure how that ball would have bounced if Hayward doesn't touch it. Man, if he deflected that into left.....
Well, datsAbaseball.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I just think Terry was a bit short-sighted and when he had to play catch-up in the ninth he ate the shit end of the stick. You've got a choice. Nieuwie vs. a lefty (a minus) plus the chance that he may face a righty later versus Lagares vs. a lefty (a plus) plus the bump in defense, minus the chance that he may face a righty later, minus the bench shortened by one guy. The Let's Make a Deal test seems to fall to Terry here.

Lagares in that spot may help you lengthen the lead, and I'd understand if it was a RBI spot or something, but it was bases empty. the nature of the game at that time was already strongly leading towards the platoon advantage being more important in the 9th (or if it wasn't, it's because the Mets held the lead) But then again, you could've used Andrew Brown to pinch hit instead if you cared about that, and had Recker or Hefner pinch run.

If you let Kirk hit, and he manages to get on, you can use Lagares in the pitcher's spot and perhaps make them make a move and use Satin anyway, or if he doesn't you can lead off the next inning with Satin or Lagares to maximize the platoon split that way in a bases empty no-out situation.

[Frayed Knot]

If that ball hit - but didn't stick - in Heyward's glove, there's no doubt in my mind that the Mets score twice there and win the game because there are all sorts of places for the deflection to go.
Missing it completely may have allowed Johnson to field it on a bounce and hold them to just one run.