2013 OF options

[Ceetar]

yes, but WAR is a figurative stat. And I question it's precise value defensively anyway, and suspect that it's overrating good defense, and also overexaggerating Bourn's defense this year and it doesn't seem to have any predictive value on his defensive value next year. Plus Bourn gets a (.5 I think) weight for being a center fielder. That, in general, equates in wins in that sense that the replacement level for center fielders is lower and you'd probably be stuck with someone much less valuable than you would if you were to subtract out a RFer, but it's not actually production per-say.

Yes, ultimately Alderson's quote of "we need an influx of productive players" is simple and to the point. What i'm suggesting though, is that adding a 5 WAR slugger to the Mets is going to create more runs than a 5 WAR all around player. 5 oWAR anyway, because the Mets need some offense in the outfield, and defense is definitely important, but as we've seen this past week, preventing runs doesn't help you win if you don't score any.

WAR is about league average, but I think the Mets generally have more guys on base than league average, so whereas a home run is equated to ~1.95 runs scored, on the Mets maybe it eclipses 2. Obviously, singles will increase in value too, but you need to bunch them up more. If you take a seasons worth of singles and toss them on the board, you are going to end up with a lot of 2 singles in a row, first and third, no one scores. mix in some home runs to clear the bases. I think that's important here. The Mets this year played a lot of games where they did things like get a couple of hits and walk and only scored one or none. When one guy slumped because the hits weren't falling they didn't score. The Mets had so many games recently, and all season, where slumps and bad luck ran together and they only managed a couple of baserunners. if you traded a couple of those singles for home runs, they win a couple more games. Look at what Ike Davis has done for the Mets this past two weeks. (granted he has a 1.143 OPS over the last two weeks. that's productive no matter how you slice it) He was able to take advantage of a pitchers mistake, but instead of it being a hard single or double, and needing the other productive players on the team to line up hits next to his to score, it left the yard and won the game. That's how you beat good pitchers when they're pitching good, which is sort of required to be successful in this league.




I don't think Bourn is a good fit, in part for this reason. But it's easy to over compensate too. Davis might hit thirty home runs this year anyway. If the Mets believe Duda is going to take a step forward, and Nieuwenhuis can contribute, they probably do get enough power there. Maybe Tejada does grow into a little power. Maybe the Mets keep Shoppach around, or get Doumit or someone else with a little back up/platoon pop.

[metsmarathon]

the chief offensive problem for the mets this year has been that there were too many offensive black holes, and not that too much offensive production came in the form of singles vice home runs.

while, yes, you need to score runs to win games, you also have to prevent the other team from scoring runs, and defense does that. we've had more than enough games where our defense lost the game for us.

taken in hte context of a single at bat in the last frame of a tied game, with no runners on base, yes, a home run is preferable to any other outcome.

taken over the course of a full season, a whole lot of singles and doubles is preferable to a whole lot of nothing, with a bunch of home runs mixed in.

the mets have had some power this season. the problem is that hte hitters who should be able to provide it have not stepped up the rest of their game, and weren't able to then hit enough to hit enough homers. lucas duda had a HR/FB% of 9.8%. that's pretty good - dan uggla, miguel montero, ryan zimmerman range. power hitter! captain kirk, despite his struggles, is at 8.2%, better than league average, and a shade behind wright's 8.8%.

the problem with those guys was that they weren't hitting enough fly balls, nor enough in general, for their power to amount to much of anything.

18% of valdespin's fly balls go out of hte yard. but he's hitting 0.242.

by the way. michael bourn gets a 2run positional adjustment. murphy, 1 run. the difference is not position, but production.

at 26, bourn had 3.5 oWAR, at 27 he had 2.1, and followed that with 3.2 and this year's 3.4

at 26, murphy had 1.9 (injury shortened sure, but it still prorates up to maybe 3.0) at 27, he may well match bourn's 2.1 - he's on track. at this point, i'm more confident that bourn will notch another 3.3ish oWAR season than i am that murphy will. but i hope to be surprised.

last year, bourn was replacement level defenisvely, on teh whole. it was the only season his defense was not a plus. you could probably count on him to be worth 1-1.5 wins on defense, conservatively. murphy was a positive defensive contributor late year as well, but thata was on teh strength of his firtbase game. at second, he is not a positive contributer, defenisvely. i think he can still improve, but i don't think he will get up to even close to the level that bourn is at.

by every way i can look at it, bourn is more productive than murphy.

the giants have no power, with 78 homers on the year. 30 fewer than the mets. they've scored 15 more runs. how? higher batting average, higher on base percentage. oh, and they lead tehir league (for now) there's more thaan one way to produce offensive value. a team does not need to hit a lot of hime runs to be successful, though it rarely hurts. though if you listen to the local media, and i'm not saying you should, one of hte biggest knocks agains the mfy's is that they hit too many home runs.

and that's ridiculous, too.

[Ceetar]

the chief offensive problem for the mets this year has been that there were too many offensive black holes, and not that too much offensive production came in the form of singles vice home runs.

The Mets have not been no-hit this year. But they've been shut out plenty. What if some of those 3-singles games were 2 singles and a home run? Hell, what if it were two singles and a roaring double off the wall, one of those that you have no doubt isn't going to be caught and allows you to score from first even if you're slow?

Especially on a young team that's constantly adjusting and learning, as the Mets were and will be next year too, there is value in having that sudden run-scoring ability. When various members of the team go into offensive black holes, they can still occasionally score runs. Doing more with less. When guys are slumping the chances of stringing together hits for multiple runs is tough, but if all it takes is the one swing you might be able to steal 2 or 3 runs. Look at how the Mets performed with Davis being a disaster, compared to how they did with Duda being a disaster. Davis was occasionally putting one over the fence. Obviously it's not the only difference, but it's a factor. There were games Davis won 'by himself' when he was slumping. Duda did not, leaving runners on and if he did occasionally get a walk or a single that fell in, he didn't score because he's slow and he had singles hitters behind him.

You could see it early on the season as well, when the Mets were being outscored because they'd score a lot and win games, or they'd score only a few and lose. Randomness suggests that if you've got more well rounded production spread out like that, sometimes it'll fall together and you'll get runs, and sometimes you'll strand a runner an inning. Whereas if you have bigger strikes of production, it puts runs up on the board and strands less. Every non-home run strands a runner. It dictates bullpen usage as well, which played into the run differential early. The Mets didn't score runs, so despite the game being close, lesser pitchers were brought in, putting the game out of reach. Many games where the pitching faltered put the Mets far enough behind that a run or two here and there wasn't catching them up, and Collins would use the back end of the bullpen instead of the front end. He'd take out starters early for offense.

This is all without mentioning the ancillary affects of a pitcher's approach to you, even when you're slumping, if they know if they screw up you'll still crush it. Or allowing the opposing manager to keep in a righty reliever and squeak past Thole or Murphy and save the bullpen because even if they singled, they'd get the next guy. Valdespin sucks, but the value of power late in the game can't be more evident. Sometimes these quality relievers only give you one or two hittable pitches an inning.

Again, I'm not advocating a one-dimensional Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn, but I think it's important to get a guy that can put up a better than average slugging percentage, and Bourn doesn't impress me.

I wouldn't hesitate to predict Murphy to have a better OPS next year over Bourn either. I really, really doubt Bourn will be worth a double digit per year 4+ year deal, and I don't want the Mets to pay him that if it's going to be a tight budget.

[Edgy MD]

This is way too complicated. The Mets lack production. The place they could probably use more of it is in the outfield, particularly left, where it's lack has been most acute.

[metsmarathon]

i don't have the split for the exact day he was sent down, but at the end of hte first half, duda had 12 homers and 44 rbi, davis 12 and 49. at the end of the first half, duda had a higher SLG and OPS than davis.

how was duda hurting hte team and davis helping? they were both hitting some homers and not much of anything else.

when all your hitters are slumping, all you can do is hit the ball over hte fence, and get one run. when your hitters are good hitters, and tehy get on base and get hits, there are more of them on base to get driven in to score, be it via a home run or another lesser hit.

if, htis year, the mets had been able to magically wave a wand and turn jason bay into a 5 WAR hitter, and he was able to attain those 5 WAR solely by hitting singles, the mets would likely gain 5 wins in teh standings. if hte mets were able to wave their magic wand a different way and turn jason bay into a hitter who was able to generate those 5 WAR by only hitting home runs, the mets would likely gain 5 wins in teh standings. it would take a lot more singles than home runs to total 5 wins, sure, but for a guy to net 5 WAR solely through home runs, he's going to have to set some records.

my thesis remains, production, no matter how it comes, is good. one home run here and there is every bit as good as a few more singles here and there. some games the home run makes the difference. some games, the extra singles and doubles make the difference. and some games, teh run saved on defense makes teh difference. the mets need to improve. and if michael bourn is indeed a 5 WAR player, like he' is this year, then i hope hte mets do not turn a blind eye to him simply because they think they need to hit more home runs. over the course of a season, a 5 war player is going to make a difference of about 5 wins. it may not be as easy to pin down as a walk-off homer in a game where he was the only offensive production, but ove rhte course of a long season, the difference will be made, in the form of bases gained and outs avoided and runs prevented.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think that the fact that the Mets showed more patience with Davis than they did with Duda hints at the team's relative regard for the two players.

I'm very curious to see what they'll do for the 2013 outfield. My guess is that Bay remains, at least for a while, as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him released late in spring training. They'll probably cobble together a starting outfield out of three of the following: Hairston, Baxter, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Valdespin, den Dekker and one offseason acquisition.

I have to wonder who is tradeable on the Mets. Their depth seems to be with young pitching, but I suspect they won't want to part with Harvey or Wheeler. Gee would have been a good trade chip if not for that out-of-nowhere shoulder problem. Would they trade Niese? Maybe. Does Francisco have any trade value? Given how teams overvalue closers, I suppose it's possible. Murphy? I would think not as much as he did three months ago. I saw someone speculating that the Mets could trade Pelfrey, but if the Mets tender him his contract would likely be too high for a pitcher who hasn't pitched since April. Some teams may want to give Valdespin a try, but none of these guys seem like anyone who will bring back real quality.

[metirish]

I guess if the Mets paid most of Francisco's salary they might be able to trade him.....owed $6 million something....so many questions going into next season. The young starting pitching that seems to be in the org makes me hopeful.

[HahnSolo]

Poking around with my fantasy roster and I caught this tidbit:

(Shin-Soo) Choo is unlikely to agree to a contract extension with the Indians and will likely be shopped during the offseason, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports.

Any interest?

[Benjamin Grimm]

How did he get that name? And what's his wife's name, and what's she like?

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: How did he get that name? And what's his wife's name, and what's she like?

He got it from his parents. His wife's name is Mrs. Choo, and she likes him, Bub.

[ashie62]

I was thinking Godzilla in left, Mothra in center for speed and Rodan in right.

Now thats production.

[Edgy MD]

Andy Martino, wet blanket.

Mets will not pursue Upton, Bourn, other top OF this winter BY ANDY MARTINO Let's do this once, to save us a winter of speculation: B.J. Upton? No. Michael Bourn? No. Shane Victorino? No. None of these players will be a Met in 2013, according to two high-ranking team insiders. The Mets - who lost 10-6 to Pittsburgh on Tuesday, done in by the seven runs Collin McHugh allowed in 1-1/3 innings - do not view this offseason as the time to commit significant money to outfielders, so they do not expect to pursue those high-profile players. Although the front office has not finalized its offseason strategy, one source said that it was unlikely the Mets will offer any outfielder even a two-year contract. The reluctance to enter the free agent market does not preclude an offseason busy with trading. Operating on a budget that, according to sources, has not been finalized - but will be only marginally higher than this year�s approximately $90 million - GM Sandy Alderson is ready to build an outfield via the trade market. It has long been clear that nearly every Met will be a trade candidate. The outfield, along perhaps with catching, is the team�s greatest need. Neither Jason Bay nor Lucas Duda nor Mike Baxter has proven himself to be an everyday player. Andres Torres will likely be non-tendered. The Mets see Jordany Valdespin as a versatile utility player, and would like to retain free agent Scott Hairston. In the minor leagues, the club hopes that Matt den Dekker, Juan Lagares and Cesar Puello will develop into major leaguers, but expects none of those players to be ready by the spring. So the Mets will have to construct an outfield somehow this winter - but that project will require creativity, and will not include any of the hot stove�s biggest names.

[metirish]

So, if the Mets are not likely according to tracksuits sources give out even two year deals for outfielders but are willing to trade for outfield help I am going guess that those players will not be on long term contracts either......it hardly inspires does it?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I still think they can get Upton.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'll betcha a Blue Smoke fried bologna sandwich and some fries to go with that that the Mets don't get Upton. I don't need Martino to tell me that ain't happening.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I'll betcha a Blue Smoke fried bologna sandwich and some fries to go with that that the Mets don't get Upton. I don't need Martino to tell me that ain't happening.

You're on. The upshot is, if you win, you have to come to CitiField in 2013 to claim your prize.

[Edgy MD]

Hard to see the relative downside of offering a projected starter a two-year deal. That's not a particularly common length, but they're frequently favorable to clubs.

[HahnSolo]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: I'll betcha a Blue Smoke fried bologna sandwich and some fries to go with that that the Mets don't get Upton. I don't need Martino to tell me that ain't happening. You're on. The upshot is, if you win, you have to come to CitiField in 2013 to claim your prize.

And, you have to meet in the Rotunda.

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: I'll betcha a Blue Smoke fried bologna sandwich and some fries to go with that that the Mets don't get Upton. I don't need Martino to tell me that ain't happening. You're on. The upshot is, if you win, you have to come to CitiField in 2013 to claim your prize.