You Make the Call: Ruben Tejada

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I could be wrong but I already detect a strain of the unintended consequences of the organizational belt-tightening in the stick up Terry's ass when it comes to Ruben Tejada.

I think he's worried that the Mets so brazenly letting Reyes walk with the intention of sliding Tejada in there might go to his head. He must know the Mets barely have a Plan B to speak of, he's young and probably dumb, and so he needs to feel pressure from something. I think Terry feels he's gotta be that Thing.

Who can say what he'll do this year? The little I've seen of him at SS demonstrates he doesn't have a arm like Reyes, although it looks as though he can pick it. How will his range compare? At the plate, not bad OBP at all, let's hope that keeps up too but not much of a track record to go on either way.

In conclusion, he should end up either being a pretty good player or a scrub in Terry's doghouse, or something else. What do you say?

[Ceetar]

He needs to improve, but he's 21, so that's not unreasonable. His OBP seemed BABIP/luck benefited last year, and I'm worried he's going to be just another averagish SS, which isn't the end of the world but my brain still autocompletes "Now Batting for the New York Mets, the Shortstop, " with Jose Reyes and it's going to be a while before Tejada isn't a let down just because of that. I'm going to try real hard to judge Tejada for Tejada and not as a comparison, but I'm really hoping his OBP is above Reyes' AVG from last year.

Defensively my thoughts are he's probably got range, and his arm is passable, but he doesn't seem all that smooth around the bag and with the DP. Of course, he's still young too. Reyes wasn't a great SS when he started, but I really dug the way he worked at it and got better.

.260/.350/.350 15 SB. I'm not even going to bother with Runs/RBI because while I don't think he should bat at the top of the order, he still might so I don't know if he's going to be scoring runs, or driving them in.

[Edgy MD]

His walk rate was .076. The previous year, it was .083. I like the sound of that music.

[TransMonk]

I think Ceetar's .260 BA and .350 OBP look good. I don't think get up to a .350 SLG, though. And I'll put him at under 10 SB.

I think his performance will vary depending on where he ends up in the lineup and how comfortable he is there as well as how long his offensive leash is near the top of the order.

[Ceetar]

yeah, .350 SLG was optimistic, I'm hoping with a little more experience he slaps some more into gaps. I read somewhere that he's been working on the SB thing, and it feels like the team is planning to be aggressive this year. 15 probably only happens if he bats up in the order though. I'd put him 8th and he's more apt to be bunted over there.

[MFS62]

In the not too distant future, Fonzie Part Deux (maybe a little less power) with a shortstop's glove.
This year?
.285 - 5 HR - 55RBI - 10 SB. and a .375 OBP.
Yes, I think he can be something special.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

He doesn't walk NEARLY enough to sustain a .375 OBP with the power he's got. (And you dishonor Fonzie with the comparison, frankly.)

I think the glove is for real, and he's a smart (if not swift) runner, but he's one of the players-- Thole being another strong possibility-- who actually suffers from a smaller CitiField, batting-stat-wise.

522 PAs, .261/.332/.343, 2 HRs (maybe), 58 R, 53 RBI

[MFS62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: He doesn't walk NEARLY enough to sustain a .375 OBP with the power he's got.

1) What's power got to do with OBP? - its on-base percentage. OPS combines on-base + slugging.
2) I said I think he can develop into a Fonzie-lite player in the future. Not this year.
I think its a compliment to both of them - one for his potential, the other as a measure to which someone else is compared.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

MFS62 wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: He doesn't walk NEARLY enough to sustain a .375 OBP with the power he's got. 1) What's power got to do with OBP? - its on-base percentage. OPS combines on-base + slugging.

Power (whether it's line-drive or booming-home-run variety) and contact skills lead to a consistently-high BA; having just the contact skills tends to lead to a highly-variable, BABIP-dependent BA. Since his BA will likely be going up and down a lot, he'll need superlative walk numbers to sustain a plus-OBP... and he doesn't walk THAT much.

[smg58]

.270/.350/.335, with a glove on the good side of average.

[Edgy MD]

I'm a little confused. When the notion was introduced that BABiP was highly variable, it was made clear that this was highly true of pitchers, but hardly so of batters. Ergo, Rey Ord��ez and Tony Gwynn could consistently put the ball in play at similar rates but consistently have very different results. It seems that the adherence to this notion is fading.

Tejada, to his credit, was pretty consistently hitting the ball on the nose last year, and not merely finding the hole with poorly struck grounders. (That's my impression, anywick, and I'm bracing for somebody to slap down his line drive rate to show me different.)

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: I'm a little confused. When the notion was introduced that BABiP was highly variable, it was made clear that this was highly true of pitchers, but hardly so of batters. Ergo, Rey Ord��ez and Tony Gwynn could consistently put the ball in play at similar rates but consistently have very different results. It seems that the adherence to this notion is fading.

You're rightish. BABiP tells part of the story for both hitters and pitchers... and less of a part for hitters; things like batted-ball numbers (LD%, e.g.) help fill in the blanks.

Tejada, to his credit, was pretty consistently hitting the ball on the nose last year, and not merely finding the hole with poorly struck grounders. (That's my impression, anywick, and I'm bracing for somebody to slap down his line drive rate to show me different.)

You're righter on this, actually (to my surprise). Tejada hit 22.5% and 25.7% line drives over each of the last two seasons, respectively. Major-league averages hovered at 18.2% and 19.6% during those two years, and tend to hang around 20%. Maybe he IS more of a gapper than I gave him credit for being. And maybe the walks will come.

I still think Slow Castillo is more likely than Anything Alfonzo. But that's something to shoot for, too.

[Ceetar]

25.7% Line drives, 7.2% infield hits.both up 3% or so from the year before.

I don't know what league average is.(actually, i do, 19.6%) .295 BABIP.

That seems high for a line drive percentage for Tejada. Reyes is a career 20% 21.1 last season. Guys like Pujols have more fly balls. I read someone that they are/did/are going to institute a LD/FB stat to distinguish hard hit home runs/doubles off wall versus soft fly outs.

Tejada had a .333 BABIP. That's not particularly high, particularly for 25% line drives. Yet all of Fangraphs predictive stats for 2012 have Tejada having a lower batting average. (not that I trust those) Citi Field seemed to create higher BABIP, given that there was more ground to hit, but presumably that'll come down.


edit: beat to the punch. But yeah. I'll take Slow Castillo (prime) or Almost Alfonzo from Tejada for sure.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I thought from the beginning that Tejada carried himself like he belonged in the big leagues, but this biz with Terry up his ass has me worried a little.

I will predict an exact replica of his 2011: 284/360/335

[Frayed Knot]

Maybe I'm the only one, but I'm not sold on him as an everyday SS defensively.
He was not without flaws last year and now he's switching positions where his weaker arm strength can be exposed.

[Theoldmole]

I like .260 BA and .350 OBP. I'll give him 18 SB, 10 CS.

[ashie62]

.300 BA Gold Glove

[metirish]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I thought from the beginning that Tejada carried himself like he belonged in the big leagues, but this biz with Terry up his ass has me worried a little. I will predict an exact replica of his 2011: 284/360/335

Yeah, he looks like he can be a major league player and acted as such previously , this thing with Collins is so predictable from him, needs to show the young player what it means to be in the bigs yyybbb, and probably feels that being on his case all year will make him a better player. Straight out of the "Old school" handbook.

I think if he handles the glove well and gains confidence he'll be fine...also straight out of that book...geeze

[Vic Sage]

sub .700 OPS (with no discernible impact from SBs or HRs) from a SS with less than spectacular range and arm = nice utility guy, being asked to do more than he can as an everyday starting SS.

Valdespin will hit himself into the job by August.

[ashie62]

Vic Sage wrote: sub .700 OPS (with no discernible impact from SBs or HRs) from a SS with less than spectacular range and arm = nice utility guy, being asked to do more than he can as an everyday starting SS. Valdespin will hit himself into the job by August.

Wanna bet?

[Edgy MD]

Yes! Yes! Bet, bet, bet!

[Vic Sage]

"One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider." -- Sky Masterson

Because i think these Prediction threads tend toward ridiculous excercises in Ceetardian puffery, i offer contrary predictions as a form of parody, and to show less optimistic potential outcomes are likely to be just as accurate as pie-in-the-sky optimism.

I'm not surprised you don't get it Ashie, but no, i don't wanna bet.
Now if you'd like to bet on the color of your bowtie...

[ashie62]

I was just gonna make it a donation to website costs..

Do you really think Valdespin could steal that job in 2012?

I just don't see it.

[ashie62]

Edgy DC wrote: Yes! Yes! Bet, bet, bet!

I thought you were the wise one...hrumpf

[Edgy MD]

Wise one? Maybe. That's why I'm encouraging Norrin to bet while I enjoy the action from the sidelines.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: Because i think these Prediction threads tend toward ridiculous excercises in Ceetardian puffery, i offer contrary predictions as a form of parody, and to show less optimistic potential outcomes are likely to be just as accurate as pie-in-the-sky optimism.

of course, I don't think I've posted the most optimistic projections in any of these threads.

[ashie62]

Name one!

[Vic Sage]

oh ok, i'll name one. i'll name the 3rd one from the left "Fred". I've always liked Fred. or how about "Melvin"? I like Melvin, too.

[Edgy MD]

I like how Terry's principle about not wanting to put too much pressure on Ruben Tejada by making him leadoff hitter in addition to it being his first season entering the year as the team's fulltime shortstop... lasted all of one game. I guess the principle doesn't apply in an emergency, like Torres going down with an injury.

If things work out, he may find just enough logic to make the emergency exception last all season long.