2013 HoF Ballot (Split, as It Were)

[Valadius]

Well, the moment's arrived - the beginning of the discussion of the clusterfuck that is the 2013 (and subsequent) Hall of Fame ballot(s).

For 2013, the ballot will include:

Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Steve Finley
Julio Franco
Shawn Green
Roberto Hernandez
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jose Mesa
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
David Wells
Bernie Williams

See the problem here? The ballot is loaded, and likely to produce a result similar to Lou Whitaker falling off the ballot in his first attempt.

My ballot next year would be:

Bagwell
Biggio
Bonds
Clemens
Martinez
Piazza
Raines
Schilling
Trammell
Walker

But I also believe there are four or five other names on the ballot that deserve induction - McGwire, Morris, Palmeiro, Sosa, maybe McGriff. With far too many voters limiting themselves in their choices, some eminently deserving names are going to fall off the ballot entirely.

2014 and 2015 will bring a glut of all-time pitchers.

2014:

Tom Glavine
Jeff Kent
Greg Maddux
Mike Mussina
Frank Thomas

2015:

Carlos Delgado
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Gary Sheffield
John Smoltz

Look, unless the voters get over the aversion to large Hall classes, we're going to see a bunch of players get screwed.

[Vic Sage]

[u:yx2pvcf9]My ballot:[/u:yx2pvcf9]
Bagwell
Biggio
Raines
Piazza
E.Martinez
Trammell

[u:yx2pvcf9]Predictions:[/u:yx2pvcf9]
HOFers - Craig Biggio, Tim Raines

[u:yx2pvcf9]why these guys will fall short:[/u:yx2pvcf9]
Edgar Martinez - a DH
Larry Walker - played in pre-humidor Colorado
Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza - totally unsubstantiated PEDs suspicions
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa - substantiated PED usage

[u:yx2pvcf9]these guys are (rightly or wrongly) viewed as borderline:[/u:yx2pvcf9]
Alan Trammell
Jack Morris
Lee Smith
Fred McGriff
Curt Schilling
Dale Murphy

[u:yx2pvcf9]Bye-bye:[/u:yx2pvcf9]
Steve Finley
Julio Franco
Shawn Green
Roberto Hernandez
Kenny Lofton
Don Mattingly
Jose Mesa
David Wells
Bernie Williams

[metirish]

the talk about Piazza was quite fervent on MLB Network the other night , some expert claiming he'd only get 50% of the vote but would get in eventually, obscene. A lot of these same eegits used to refer to him as the " best hitting catcher ever" in his prime.

[Edgy MD]

Hard to turn my back on Schilling. His wins cold be higher, but he pitched for a lot of crappy-hitting Phillies teams. (Pitched for some good-hitting D'Backs teams and great-hitting Sox teams, too, of course.)

[Vic Sage]

and he's got the legend of the bloody sock going for him. He's a "winnner", you know. But i still think he's a borderline candidate.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I'm not so interested in his categorization as a borderline candidate, but that you place him on the dark side of the border.

I neutralized his stats and his W-L stats didn't really change, taking him from 216-146, .597, 3.46 to 212-139 .604, 3.30.

Make of the bloody sock what you will, but the statistical representation of that hosiery is an 11-2 record and a 2.23 ERA in the post-season.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Yeah, I'm not so interested in his categorization as a borderline candidate, but that you place him on the dark side of the border. I neutralized his stats and his W-L stats didn't really change, taking him from 216-146, .597, 3.46 to 212-139 .604, 3.30. Make of the bloody sock what you will, but the statistical representation of that hosiery is an 11-2 record and a 2.23 ERA in the post-season.

I think Schilling could be one of the ones they string along for 10 years while inducting all those other guys. I expect angry rants from Schilling as it happens not helping.

[Edgy MD]

Jack Morris: 7-4, 3.80 in 13 post-season starts.
Curt Schilling: 11-2, 2.23 in 19 p0st-season starts.

Obviously, if you neutralized for era, that ERA difference might be even more striking.

[Frayed Knot]

My problem with Schilling is that, in between his 5 or 6 truly great years, were an awful lot of seasons that were injury-tainted, or where he was merely so-so and at times not even that good. I wouldn't vote for him but I know that his "big moment" style career is going to appeal to a lot of voters.

I'd start with both Biggio, Bagwell -- I don't think either will get in this year (although both do eventually) but if it does happen it'll be a nice day for Houston even as the year itself is going to suck and then end up with them being kicked out of the National League. Their season might peak in June/July with the #1 pick in the draft and the HoF ceremonies.
- and then my yearly call for Raines -- he got closer this year although Morris (who I wouldn't put in) was closer still and probably gets in first
- and Piazza -- no [u:34s8oj4r]REAL[/u:34s8oj4r] reason why he shouldn't other than unfounded suspicions and stupid 'no 1st year' mottos.
- and probably Trammel -- which doesn't seem to have a prayer of happening

As far as the 'Known' steroid crowd (Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGwire, Palmiero): I'm not saying never, but at least not now. Someday maybe we'll sort this stuff out but for now you're gonna have to live with it.

[Valadius]

What always gets me about Schilling are his completely insane K/BB numbers. He posts the all-time best career mark of 4.38 K/BB among pitchers with more than 10 seasons, with Pedro Martinez right behind him at 4.15.

In looking that stat up, I also found that Bret Saberhagen's 1994 Mets season ranks as the greatest of all time in this statistic, at a remarkable 11 K's per BB.

[ashie62]

I dont understand the Piazza/PED connection. I didn't even see any rumors in print.

[Gwreck]

Check out the similarities between Schilling and Bob Gibson.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Murray Chass frets a bit about his bacne.

I have next to no doubt that Piazza, like many of his peers, was as juicy as they came but that's how they played the game then.

[Edgy MD]

The case against Piazza:

• He had bacne.
  
• He played in an era where large numbers of his superstar peers turned out to be juicing.
  
• "He was an unathletic guy drafted in a round so low it doesn't exist anymore, as a favor to a family friend, but became the best hitter at his position ever.
  
• He supposedly fessed up to at least one reporter off the record, as per Pearlman.
  
• Reggie Jefferson, who I believer never played with or against Piazza, said, "He's a guy who did it, and everybody knows it,"

As Lionel Hutz might say, "I have rumors and hearsay... and those are... types of evidence!"

Nonetheless, folks are entitled to their suspicions. The thing is, if all these writers did their job.

Look, I'll help. Here's a list of 460 players Mike Piazza played with. Eighty are still active. Three are in the Hall of Fame.

Kurt Abbott
Jon Adkins
Benny Agbayani
Manny Alexander
Antonio Alfonseca
Edgardo Alfonzo
Jermaine Allensworth
Edwin Almonte
Roberto Alomar
Dave Anderson
Marlon Anderson
Jason Anderson
Eric Anthony
Kevin Appier
Billy Ashley
Pedro Astacio
Manny Aybar
Mike Bacsik
Carlos Baerga
James Baldwin
Willie Banks
Josh Bard
Josh Barfield
Brian Barnes
Manuel Barrios
Daric Barton
Rich Becker
Derek Bell
Jay Bell
Heath Bell
Mark Bellhorn
Carlos Beltran
Rigo Beltran
Adrian Beltre
Armando Benitez
Gary Bennett
Kris Benson
Todd Benzinger
Dave Berg
Willie Blair
Henry Blanco
Joe Blanton
Jerry Blevins
Mike Blowers
Geoff Blum
Hiram Bocachica
Brian Bohanon
Bobby Bonilla
Josh Booty
Mike Bordick
Ricky Bottalico
Rafael Bournigal
Rob Bowen
Dallas Braden
Milton Bradley
Darren Bragg
Russell Branyan
Craig Brazell
Dewon Brazelton
Doug Brocail
Jerry Brooks
Jim Brower
Andrew Brown
Dee Brown
Will Brunson
Jim Bruske
Brian Buchanan
Travis Buck
Jeromy Burnitz
Mike Busch
Brett Butler
Miguel Cairo
Kiko Calero
Mike Cameron
Eric Cammack
John Candelaria
Tom Candiotti
John Cangelosi
Santiago Casilla
Scott Cassidy
Vinny Castilla
Luis Castillo
Alberto Castillo
Juan Castro
Ramon Castro
Roger Cedeno
Jaime Cerda
Eric Chavez
Bruce Chen
McKay Christensen
Brady Clark
Tony Clark
Dave Clark
Brad Clontz
David Cone
Dennis Cook
Alex Cora
Mark Corey
Craig Counsell
Tim Crews
Tripp Cromer
Bobby Crosby
John Cummings
Chad Curtis
Jack Cust
Omar Daal
Jeff D'Amico
Kal Daniels
Vic Darensbourg
Brian Daubach
Jeff DaVanon
Eric Davis
Kane Davis
Mike DeJean
Wilson Delgado
Ryan Dempster
Joe Depastino
Delino DeShields
John DeSilva
Mike Devereaux
Victor Diaz
Mike Difelice
Lenny DiNardo
Octavio Dotel
Darren Dreifort
Justin Duchscherer
Jeff Duncan
Shawon Dunston
Todd Dunwoody
Brian Edmondson
Joey Eischen
Jim Eisenreich
Mark Ellis
Alan Embree
Scott Erickson
Alex Escobar
Shawn Estes
Jorge Fabregas
Pedro Feliciano
Ron Flores
Cliff Floyd
Joe Fontenot
Chad Fonville
Bartolome Fortunato
Matt Franco
John Franco
J.J. Furmaniak
Greg Gagne
Daniel Garcia
Karim Garcia
Chad Gaudin
Shawn Gilbert
Brian Giles
Bernard Gilkey
Matt Ginter
Tom Glavine
Mike Glavine
Adrian Gonzalez
Dicky Gonzalez
Gabe Gonzalez
Alex Gonzalez
Raul Gonzalez
Tom Goodwin
Rick Gorecki
Jim Gott
Danny Graves
Khalil Greene
Jeremy Griffiths
Kip Gross
Kevin Gross
Mark Grudzielanek
Wilton Guerrero
Mark Guthrie
Ricky Gutierrez
Chris Gwynn
Chip Hale
Darren Hall
Shane Halter
Darryl Hamilton
Chris Hammond
Mike Hampton
Tim Hamulack
Todd Haney
Jack Hannahan
Greg Hansell
Dave Hansen
Rich Harden
Dan Haren
Mike Harkey
Lenny Harris
Aaron Heilman
Rickey Henderson
Oscar Henriquez
Clay Hensley
Felix Heredia
Roberto Hernandez
Carlos Hernandez
Anderson Hernandez
Livan Hernandez
Orel Hershiser
Richard Hidalgo
Joe Hietpas
Brett Hinchliffe
Chan Ho
Trevor Hoffman
Todd Hollandsworth
Damon Hollins
Thomas Howard
Jay Howell
Trent Hubbard
John Hudek
Todd Hundley
Butch Huskey
Garey Ingram
Kazuhisa Ishii
Jason Isringhausen
Ryan Jackson
Mike Jacobs
Stan Javier
Dan Johnson
Mark Johnson
Ben Johnson
Charles Johnson
Bobby Jones
Bobby Jones
Mike Judd
Eric Karros
Roberto Kelly
Jason Kendall
Joe Kennedy
Jeff Keppinger
Bobby Kielty
Mike Kinkade
Wayne Kirby
Ryan Klesko
Randy Knorr
Jon Knott
Shane Komine
Satoru Komiyama
Paul Konerko
Dae-Sung Koo
Mark Kotsay
Jeff Kubenka
David Lamb
Ryan Langerhans
Frank Lankford
Andy Larkin
Matt Lawton
Derrek Lee
Al Leiter
Justin Leone
Colby Lewis
Darren Lewis
Scott Linebrink
Nelson Liriano
Mark Little
Graeme Lloyd
Paul Lo
Esteban Loaiza
Terrence Long
Braden Looper
Luis Lopez
Eric Ludwick
Ruddy Lugo
Matt Luke
Pat Mahomes
Sean Maloney
Jim Mann
Matt Mantei
Josias Manzanillo
Oreste Marrero
Jay Marshall
Tom Martin
Ramon Martinez
Pedro Martinez
Kazuo Matsui
Gary Matthews
Mike Matthews
Paul McAnulty
Roger McDowell
Chuck McElroy
Joe McEwing
Ryan McGuire
Greg McMichael
Brian McRae
Brian Meadows
Rafael Medina
Adam Melhuse
Kevin Melillo
Cla Meredith
Mike Metcalfe
Dan Meyer
Jason Middlebrook
Doug Mientkiewicz
Kevin Millar
Ralph Milliard
Doug Mirabelli
Dave Mlicki
Raul Mondesi
Melvin Mora
Orber Moreno
Noe Munoz
Donnie Murphy
Rob Murphy
Dan Murray
Eddie Murray
Rod Nichols
C.J. Nitkowski
Otis Nixon
Hideo Nomo
Jon Nunnally
Jose Offerman
Kirt Ojala
Bob Ojeda
John Olerud
Rey Ordonez
Kevin Orie
Antonio Osuna
Al Osuna
Juan Padilla
Donn Pall
Craig Paquette
Rick Parker
Jose Parra
Jay Payton
Jake Peavy
Angel Pena
Timo Perez
Carlos Perez
Jason Phillips
Tony Phillips
Jay Powell
Todd Pratt
Tom Prince
Bill Pulsipher
Danny Putnam
Eddie Pye
Scott Radinsky
Erasmo Ramirez
Gary Rath
Prentice Redman
Mike Redmond
Steve Reed
Jody Reed
Rick Reed
Desi Relaford
Edgar Renteria
Dennys Reyes
Jose Reyes
Armando Reynoso
Jerrod Riggan
Adam Riggs
Royce Ring
Jason Roach
Grant Roberts
Dave Roberts
Connor Robertson
Rich Rodriguez
Henry Rodriguez
Felix Rodriguez
Kenny Rogers
Mel Rojas
Brian Rose
John Roskos
Glendon Rusch
Juan Samuel
Rey Sanchez
Jesus Sanchez
Jose Santiago
Dick Schofield
Mike Scioscia
Marco Scutaro
Rudy Seanez
Mike Sharperson
Jeff Shaw
Gary Sheffield
Tsuyoshi Shinjo
Brian Sikorski
Terrmel Sledge
Esix Snead
Chris Snelling
Cory Snyder
Tim Spehr
Justin Speier
Shane Spencer
Dennis Springer
Rob Stanifer
Mike Stanton
Tim Stauffer
Shannon Stewart
Pat Strange
Darryl Strawberry
Huston Street
Scott Strickland
Kurt Suzuki
Brian Sweeney
Nick Swisher
Shingo Takatsu
Jeff Tam
Kevin Tapani
Tony Tarasco
Jim Tatum
Billy Taylor
Milt Thompson
Mike Thompson
Kevin Thompson
John Thomson
Jorge Toca
Steve Trachsel
Bubba Trammell
Jeff Treadway
Ricky Trlicek
Jason Tyner
Ismael Valdez
Eric Valent
John Valentin
Mo Vaughn
Jorge Velandia
Robin Ventura
Jose Vizcaino
Todd Walker
Pete Walker
Tyler Walker
Donne Wall
Tim Wallach
Allen Watson
Matt Watson
Gary Wayne
David Weathers
Eric Weaver
Mitch Webster
John Wehner
David Wells
Turk Wendell
Jae Weong
Dan Wheeler
Rick White
Ty Wigginton
Rick Wilkins
Todd Williams
Eddie Williams
Gerald Williams
Reggie Williams
Woody Williams
Scott Williamson
Steve Wilson
Preston Wilson
Tom Wilson
Vance Wilson
Jay Witasick
Chris Woodward
Todd Worrell
David Wright
Tyler Yates
Masato Yoshii
Eric Young
Chris Young
Victor Zambrano
Gregg Zaun
Todd Zeile

Start making some calls.

[Ceetar]

he better get in next year. How much fun will it be to celebrate him at home at the All-Star Game and then a week and a half later go up to Cooperstown and celebrate him there?

[MFS62]

I'd vote for:
Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Alan Trammell
for now.

I'll have to think about the pros and cons of the others before officially casting my ballot.

Later

[ashie62]

I can't believe edgy typed 460 names or was it the magic of cut and paste.

[dgwphotography]

Bagwell, Biggio, Piazza, Raines. That's it. Fuck the rest...

[Edgy MD]

In Rotterdam, NY, not far from the town of Cooperstown, sits the Hall of the Fucked. Every year, dozens of baseball fans flock to this hamlet to pay tribute to the their favorite players, enshrined forever by fuckedness. Hodges, Minoso, Herman, Cardenal, Tiant, O'Neil, Munson. Come, bring your kids, and relive these great legacies as they rot away in Rotterdam.

As fun as these pilgrimages are is the debate about who will join these immortals. Trammel? Schilling? Whose gonna get fucked next? Bring your family and see. Make special plans for each July when the ranks of the buggered grow in the annual Fucking Ceremony. Don't miss it!

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: In Rotterdam, NY, not far from the town of Cooperstown, sits the Hall of the Fucked. Every year, dozens of baseball fans flock to this hamlet to pay tribute to the their favorite players, enshrined forever by fuckedness. Hodges, Minoso, Herman, Cardenal, Tiant, O'Neil, Munson. Come, bring your kids, and relive these great legacies as they rot away in Rotterdam. As fun as these pilgrimages are is the debate about who will join these immortals. Trammel? Schilling? Whose gonna get fucked next? Bring your family and see. Make special plans for each July when the ranks of the buggered grow in the annual Fucking Ceremony. Don't miss it!

Oh, I assumed those guys just went down the road to Ommegang and were drinking heavily.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ceetar wrote: Edgy DC wrote: In Rotterdam, NY, not far from the town of Cooperstown, sits the Hall of the Fucked. Every year, dozens of baseball fans flock to this hamlet to pay tribute to the their favorite players, enshrined forever by fuckedness. Hodges, Minoso, Herman, Cardenal, Tiant, O'Neil, Munson. Come, bring your kids, and relive these great legacies as they rot away in Rotterdam. As fun as these pilgrimages are is the debate about who will join these immortals. Trammel? Schilling? Whose gonna get fucked next? Bring your family and see. Make special plans for each July when the ranks of the buggered grow in the annual Fucking Ceremony. Don't miss it! Oh, I assumed those guys just went down the road to Ommegang and were drinking heavily.

Well, the bus from the inns sets out for Ommegang, but ends up a half-mile away from Cooperstown Brewery and a stale-cider-donut stand. Hall of the Fucked and all.

[Frayed Knot]

Lengthy piece in BP which makes the case against a Jack Morris C-Town enshrinement.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

http://bigbadbaseball.blogspot.com/2012/01/jim-jack-and-lash-of-back-baseballs.html

This guy argues that the "Morris deoesn't belong" movement is having the same effect the "Blyleven does belong" movement did. That is, it is getting both guys to the HoF.

[Edgy MD]

That's a great article.

The BBWAA draws a lot of lightning, but the process is designed well enough that they've historically delivered far fewer unworthy candidates than any other process.

In other words, they aren't the ones that should be on the defensive. And them acting defensively can only hurt the process.

[Edgy MD]

There's a really good big world analogy. Reformer John the XXIII was beatified in September 2000 amidst heavy pressure and agitation to honor him as a symbol of progress and the church's engagement with the world and history. Reform advocates gave a great cheer for the symbolism of the moment when they suddenly realized the church simultaneously beatified Pius IX, symbol of dogma and anti-nationalism. Italian outrage had squelched his candidacy a hundred years before. He was so reviled that his body had to be moved at night, and even then a street gang nearly succeeded in intercepting the cortege, seizing the body, and throwing it in the Tiber.

In short, few people beyond the future Benedict XVI were agitating for his beatification. But it was the medicine that the reformers had to take along with the much desired advancement of John XXII. The bear bites back.

I guess my point is that it becomes important to make these cases strictly on their own merits, instead of as symbolic campaigns in the waging of a higher war against the powers that be.

[MFS62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Ceetar wrote: Edgy DC wrote: In Rotterdam, NY, not far from the town of Cooperstown, sits the Hall of the Fucked. Every year, dozens of baseball fans flock to this hamlet to pay tribute to the their favorite players, enshrined forever by fuckedness. Hodges, Minoso, Herman, Cardenal, Tiant, O'Neil, Munson. July when the ranks of the buggered grow in the annual Fucking Ceremony. Don't miss it! Oh, I assumed those guys just went down the road to Ommegang and were drinking heavily. Well, the bus from the inns sets out for Ommegang, but ends up a half-mile away from Cooperstown Brewery and a stale-cider-donut stand. Hall of the Fucked and all.

Those guys (except O'Neil) are all welcome to join us in the loser's lounge. We don't have enough of a light bulb and water cooler budget to let him in.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: http://bigbadbaseball.blogspot.com/2012/01/jim-jack-and-lash-of-back-baseballs.html This guy argues that the "Morris deoesn't belong" movement is having the same effect the "Blyleven does belong" movement did. That is, it is getting both guys to the HoF.

The difference being that the Blyleven & Morris groups were almost directly opposite each other in my experience.
IOW, the pro-Bert guys tend to be anti-Morris and verse-vica; roughly translating to the Blyleven guys being the stats crowd while the Morris-ites stuck with more old-skool benchmarks.

[Edgy MD]

MFS62 wrote: Those guys (except O'Neil) are all welcome to join us in the loser's lounge. We don't have enough of a light bulb and water cooler budget to let him in.

Still figuring this one out. Do I wanna know?

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: http://bigbadbaseball.blogspot.com/2012/01/jim-jack-and-lash-of-back-baseballs.html This guy argues that the "Morris deoesn't belong" movement is having the same effect the "Blyleven does belong" movement did. That is, it is getting both guys to the HoF. The difference being that the Blyleven & Morris groups were almost directly opposite each other in my experience. IOW, the pro-Bert guys tend to be anti-Morris and verse-vica; roughly translating to the Blyleven guys being the stats crowd while the Morris-ites stuck with more old-skool benchmarks.

Which is sort of the point of the article.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yes, he is saying that the Mom's-Basement-Dwelling, Slide-Rule-Using, Never-Saw-A-Game Stat Geeks are effective when advocating for a player (Blyleven) but have the opposite effect when arguing against guys (Morris) because they insult the Old Schoolers and encourage backlash.