Rosenthal and Gonzalez

[Edgy MD]

Apparently, Ken Rosenthal set the Twitters on fire late last night with a tweet.

@Ken_RosenthalKen Rosenthal Sources: #Mets, Mariners now among teams on #Athletics' Gio Gonzalez. #Marlins remain persistent. #Reds, #RedSox, #Rangers remain in. #MLB

A young cheapish lefty star and a possible future ace, Gonzalez is the type of guy 30 teams want, so the asking price is going to be driven up by an aggressive market. Naturally, the snarkosphere, already hard at work on their Jack Wilson jokes, laughed silly at the Mets being linked to the name of a real dude. It's like Rosenthal was throwing out catnip.

What's forgotten in the laughter is that, while the Mets are indeed cash poor, they are not necessarily poor in the talent that it takes to make a trade. They have some redundancies: first base and AA-level starting pitching, to name two.

Naturally, the environment is so toxic that any deal is going to get broadly derided. But what do you open with there? Could Murphy plus Beato plus Familia get it done? Would it be close? (There is precedent for trading Santa Claus.)

I get the idea the stadium would get burned down if they offered Davis.

[Edgy MD]

The Ladies Call Me Puma says the talk starts at Davis and Niese. Ouch.

[Ceetar]

My first thought is that Beane does this all the time, floating guys he's not really going to trade, trying to provoke someone into giving him a ransom. And Alderson, being a GM looking to improve his team (really, he's not just here to sell guys and reduce payroll) is obviously going to be interested in a good player.

But the derision this was treated with was pathetic "What, no, the Mets don't get good players. That goes against the narrative! Blah blah the Mets are sellers didn't you see they tried to trade Niese?"

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

The title should real be "Rosenthal and Gonzalez are Dead".

[smg58]

I like Gonzalez. He'd be under control for four years, he's a reasonable bet to improve at his age (26), and he should be able to post sub-3 ERAs in an NL pitcher's park. (Fangraphs thinks he's overrated because his FIP has exceeded his real ERA by half a run in each of the last two seasons, but I work under the assumption that it's not a fluke if it happens twice.)

Do I like him enough to satisfy Beane? I like Davis just as much, so unless it were Davis alone, I'd oppose including him. Our pitching prospects might not improve on what Gonzalez is now, so I'd have no problem at all including one. Any of our hitting prospects should be on the table too, as should our other first base options.

Beane got a quantity of prospects for Dan Haren a few years back, and that's probably what he's aiming for here. I've seen people gush over his haul in that deal, but the only guy worth several seasons of Haren was Carlos Gonzalez, whom the great genius dealt for half a season of Matt Holliday.

[seawolf17]

smg58 wrote: I like Gonzalez. He'd be under control for four years, he's a reasonable bet to improve at his age (26)

And in a couple of years, he has a chance to be 30.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'd hate to see the Mets fumble away a guy who looks like a legit powa hitta like Davis but in a general sense, I'm open to anything.

Really I am. More than ever I am.

Let's go do some crazy shit.

[metirish]

As a general rule I am not all that enamored about giving up a good young hitter for a pitcher, not even sure why.

[Edgy MD]

I'd bet it's because of a sense that quality pitching is more ephemeral than quality hitting.

[Frayed Knot]

No, I think quality pitchers are just as masculine.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm not either, but maybe Doodoo instead? or Muffy? Who knows. It's not as though Alderson & DePodesta are gonna get robbed blind by anyone, it's only a matter of how it turns out. I couldn't say the same about Omar, and I think that's why he stopped making trades after a while, even when we needed them.

[soupcan]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm not either, but maybe Doodoo instead? or Muffy? Who knows. It's not as though Alderson & DePodesta are gonna get robbed blind by anyone, it's only a matter of how it turns out. I couldn't say the same about Omar, and I think that's why he stopped making trades after a while, even when we needed them.

Excellent, excellent analysis.

[Vic Sage]

Let's go do some crazy shit.

hey, are you that kid that lived down the street from me when i was in high school?

[metirish]

@JonHeymanCBS: mets told a's they wont include niese, ike, harvey, wheeler, mejia or familia. trying for gio, as @Ken_Rosenthal said"

[Edgy MD]

But Chuck James is definitely on the table. Totally.

[HahnSolo]

metirish wrote: @JonHeymanCBS: mets told a's they wont include niese, ike, harvey, wheeler, mejia or familia. trying for gio, as @Ken_Rosenthal said"

I can interest you in this delicious half-eaten tuna sandwich, however.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Good for the Mets, but seriously, what are the top trade commodities after that? Sounds like they'd move Duda. Parnell? Havens? Fartinez??

On Niese, I just read this by Mets blogger Patrick Flood and what do yall make of this head-scratcher at the end?

Of the 1,719 pitchers who have thrown at least 350 innings since the end of World War II, Jon Niese has the the 4th highest BABIP. He�s ranked number 4 out of 1,719. I�m not sure if it�s the kind of thing that can be written off as bad luck and poor defenders. While I believe Niese�s career ERA is going to come down, I don�t think it�s going to come down that far.

4th unluckiest SOB in 60 years? Or just not all that great at pitching baseballs?

[Edgy MD]

I guess we can combine that with "...and it just got that much harder to keep it in the park."

But also, the Met dee was awful this season.

[smg58]

Niese is tough to figure. He has actually been pretty solid up to the All-Star Break in each of the past two seasons, but then the wheels came off. There's nothing really wrong with his basic peripherals after the break this past year (46 K and 9 BB in 46 IP, 5 HR allowed), but he gave up 62 hits and had a 5.67 ERA. The extra base hits did go up, though, so you can argue he was getting hit harder. It may just be a question of building up stamina, or being paced better in the early months. His pitch counts were generally reasonable, but perhaps the few games where he was pushed were a few too many -- and perhaps that ultimately compromises his value.

The bottom line? He has enough talent and upside that teams have asked about him, and enough question marks to justify at least returning the calls. He could be a fourth or fifth starter on a good team, but I think the error bars are bigger with him than with most pitchers. I'd want a player/prospect I like in return, but he's too risky to be untouchable.

[ashie62]

Gio Gonzalez for Ike Davis..read it, learn it, live it.

[Frayed Knot]

Latest rumor has the Natinals going hard after Gio Gonzalez, talking about a 4-for-1 swap including minor league pitcher Brad Peacock (they're very proud of him) and catcher Derek Norris. Both are well regarded prospects, others would presumably be lesser lights.
Peacock: 15-3; 2.39 in AA/AAA in 2011, got a call-up at the end of the year and should be just about ready
Norris: low BA but lots of walks & power [.210/.367/.446 at AA this year] with an improving defensive rep - maybe a year away

The article on MLB.com suggests a trade is probably close and also mentions the BoSox and the Jays but not the Mets as pursuers.