Following an Angel (split from Prospect Lists of 2011-2012)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Hmmm... maybe the Mets can bring in a veteran retread to compete for the job in the spring with Nieuwenhuis. If Nieuwenhuis wins the job, the vet stays as a reserve outfielder. And if not, Nieuwenhuis goes back to Buffalo.

I can see "Nieuwenhuis" being the trickiest Schaefer name since Mientkiewicz.

[Ceetar]

The Mets have mentioned Nieuwenhuis. Specifically, D3PO implied we'd probably have seen him in September had he not gotten hurt. That suggests to me that if it's May 15th and Pagan ain't cutting it..

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think they hafta let Pagan go and aim higher in CF.

I think Pagan could be a fine bench player but prolly not for us anymore.

[Edgy MD]

I think they let him go and aim cheaper right now and higher down the road. That could mean [crossout]Niewewnehieuees[/crossout] Newey. It's potentially not a big dropoff up front and it feeds the Reyes fund.

I still have this notion of Carlos Gomez.

[Frayed Knot]

Even if his bat is or soon will be ready (a question unto itself) the jury seems to be out on whether Nieuwenhuis can be a legit ML CF.
Opinions seem to vary from 'Passable' to 'get him to a corner'

[Farmer Ted]

They could always trade for an infielder and convert him to a centerfielder. It worked with Juan Samuel. Right?

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I think they hafta let Pagan go and aim higher in CF. I think Pagan could be a fine bench player but prolly not for us anymore.

unless you're swinging some huge trade, I'm not sure there is anyone within the Mets reach to aim at. The prospects may ultimately be destined for the corner, but let's not preemptively force them there by locking up CF. Pagan is actually reasonably cheap, probably provides the best defense/offense combo the Mets can reasonably hope for, and doesn't block any of the prospects.

Actually, they haven't tried Murphy in CF yet..

[ashie62]

Edgy DC wrote: I think they let him go and aim cheaper right now and higher down the road. That could mean [crossout]Niewewnehieuees[/crossout] Newey. It's potentially not a big dropoff up front and it feeds the Reyes fund. I still have this notion of Carlos Gomez.

Cody Ross? type B

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Geez, Ceetar the Mets can't reasonably hope for anyone better than Pagan? I'd accuse you of a lack of imagination were it not for that Murphy remark.

I'll go on record here and say there are lots of possibilities. Lots and lots of them.

[Edgy MD]

I think Ross is good thinking, but I think is pretty comparable to Pagan. Never as good a defender as Pagan in 2010 but not as bad as Pagan was in 2011. (And I insist he was.). But I can't see him coming in for fewer $ or years.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

That the front office has lost faith in Pagan is palpable, and I'd guess something that would come into play if/when they consider otherwise comparable players.

[Edgy MD]

I can see the folks that brought Castillo and Ollie Perez to camp maybe still sticking with him, lost faith and all, setting him up to have the job taken from him.

But man, I'm starting to get all irrational about this Gomez notion. Somebody redirect me.

Coco? McLouth?

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: I think Ross is good thinking, but I think is pretty comparable to Pagan. Never as good a defender as Pagan in 2010 but not as bad as Pagan was in 2011. (And I insist he was.). But I can't see him coming in for fewer $ or years.

Ross doesn't rate real well as a CFer either. and it's not like Pagan was bad before 2010. the defensive numbers are heavily in his favor. I wouldn't be against a guy like Ross taking AB against lefties, but you'd have to pay him more than Pagan anyway so if you're going to play him as a regular, it's probably really an upgrade, and it's definitely not if Pagan even plays average defense. Platoon wise..Hairston's practically free and hits lefties just as well.

who else is better than Pagan, appreciably, that is worth spending money on?

Nate McLouth? nah..
Coco Crisp? Not great, but an upgrade defensively..made about ~5 million a year and had a bad 2011..
David DeJesus could be intriguing, down 2011 and injured 2010, but actually a pretty good player. Don't know if recent history keeps his price down, but he's type B.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Nate McLouth? nah.. Coco Crisp? Not great, but an upgrade defensively..made about ~5 million a year and had a bad 2011.. David DeJesus could be intriguing, down 2011 and injured 2010, but actually a pretty good player. Don't know if recent history keeps his price down, but he's type B.

I hear you about McLooty, but I'm not thinking just about getting batter in center, but getting cheaper and maybe getting more value for less munnny and hoping to re-invest elsewhere.

And I suspect that, maybe, once-good players coming off debilitating injuries are the new undervalued resources in the marketplace --- even as I understand an athletic position like center may not be the place to play that card.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: I hear you about McLooty, but I'm not thinking just about getting batter in center, but getting cheaper and maybe getting more value for less munnny and hoping to re-invest elsewhere. And I suspect that, maybe, once-good players coming off debilitating injuries are the new undervalued resources in the marketplace --- even as I understand an athletic position like center may not be the place to play that card.

perhaps. Does 4 million mean we get a better bet SP? From the sounds of it Alderson has budgeted out what he wants to spend on each 'hole' but presumably an extra 4 million might help get a 'better' guy at one of the spots. If you could find a good defensive specialist type guy, or maybe someone with a high OBP that doesn't necessarily hit that much? Everytime I think about it I keep coming back to Pagan being the best all-around option.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Edgy DC wrote: I hear you about McLooty, but I'm not thinking just about getting batter in center, but getting cheaper and maybe getting more value for less munnny and hoping to re-invest elsewhere. And I suspect that, maybe, once-good players coming off debilitating injuries are the new undervalued resources in the marketplace --- even as I understand an athletic position like center may not be the place to play that card. perhaps. Does 4 million mean we get a better bet SP? From the sounds of it Alderson has budgeted out what he wants to spend on each 'hole' but presumably an extra 4 million might help get a 'better' guy at one of the spots. If you could find a good defensive specialist type guy, or maybe someone with a high OBP that doesn't necessarily hit that much? Everytime I think about it I keep coming back to Pagan being the best all-around option.

By those terms (def. spec.), I think about Carlos Gomez, but don't know his availability. But he'll get $3 million or so this year while Pagan will likely get $5-6. The Moneyball A's went with a chump-change-making Terrence Long.

[Ceetar]

I think Pagan's getting closer to 4 in arbitration, but my guess is the Mets and him agree to something before that anyway right around that much.

Gomez could be interesting, but I'd like someone with a higher career OBP than .291.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Maybe. But every vibe I'm getting (not that I have an infallible vibe meter) says that the Mets have little to no interest in bringing Pagan back next year.

[Edgy MD]

Part of that is that Adam Rubin writes as much every chance he gets.

He could be working from overwhelming evidence, but he could be just amplifying himself as he continues. Beat writers have been so prone.

[Edgy MD]

I think Pagan's getting closer to 4 in arbitration, but my guess is the Mets and him agree to something before that anyway right around that much. Gomez could be interesting, but I'd like someone with a higher career OBP than .291.

So would everybody, but he has the potential to make his team's pitchers better everyday, is young enough that a new batting coach and approach might coax some offensive life from him, and can share the position until things solidify.

But I think we're all thinking short-term solution until Nieuwenheis gets his shot. Or part of a shot. And Den Dekker behind him.

(Only other Met with a space in his surname: Paul Lo Duca.)

[smg58]

Pagan is projected to command something like $4.7M in arbitration. He was worth far more than that in 09 and 10. He's been a better player than Grady Sizemore in each of the past three seasons. Hell, he's been a better player than Jason Bay in the past two. If you think he was dealing with nagging injuries all year, and I'm inclined to think he was, then simply dropping him would be silly. You're not likely to upgrade the position while simultaneously saving money. Thinking of him as a fourth outfielder would require having three outfielders who are better, and right now the Mets don't have any.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I'm inclined to think Duda Duck is better --- wooden defense and constipated face and all --- but your point generally holds.

[smg58]

Duda certainly has the potential to be better, if his bat turns out to be legit and more consistent playing time in the OF improves his defense.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

What kind of injury do you have that makes you throw the ball to the wrong base every time there's a play to be made?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Maybe a fly flew up his nose and is sitting on his brain.

[metirish]

In other Pagan news his designer beard still looks sharp.

[TransMonk]

I haven't heard anything out of Milwaukee suggesting that they will breakup the platoon of Morgan and Gomez in center. Having Braun and Hart in left and right allows them to play the hot hand and focus on defense and speed in center.

I think the Brewers will spend some money this offseason, but I think it will be on upgrades to the infield rather than center.

[smg58]

This conversation is eerily similar to one I had when the Mets traded Jay Payton in 2002, which ended with me saying something to the effect of: "I didn't say he doesn't have rocks in his head, I just said he was our best outfielder."

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Doncha think there's something to the notion that as long as we know what Pagan is likely to prove on the upside and down, it might be better to gamble with someone else's up & down?

I like good Pagan quite a bit but even if you argue he's our best OF, a player who does his job as poorly as Pagan did last year is not going to help anyone.

[seawolf17]

I'm upset we didn't trade Pagan last year when we had the chance.