Jason Bay for John Lackey

[Gwreck]

Great solution or perfect solution to the 2012 season?

(Maybe Boston needs to kick in $5 million to make it work). Who blinks first?

[Vic Sage]

Lackey is signed at $15.25m/yr for next 3 years, with an option on 2015 ($46m total). He's 33, coming off a disastrous year, which followed a mediocre one. He's had a steadily declining K/9 rate since his peak on `05, with a rising BB/9 rate.

Bay is signed for $16m/yr for next 2 years, with a $3m buyout for 2014 ($35m total). He's the same age, with the same type of decline over the past 2 years, though not as bad as Lackey. And for all his offensive woes, he had an OPS+ of 105 last year, which put him over league average. He is also a pretty decent outfielder and baserunner and, by all accounts, a good guy in the clubhouse. With the Mets planning to move in the fence next year, i'd sooner bet on Bay having a better year than Lackey.

And even if he doesn't improve, there's more to be gotten from an OFer who can still hit LHP, run a bit, catch and throw pretty well, than from a SP who has lost his fastball and hasn't figured out how to get guys out anymore. never mind the extra $11m he costs.

I don't like it. pass.

[Frayed Knot]

I'm w/Vic. (NTTAWWT)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Just speculatin' here, but Carl Crawford is probably amenable to a change of address too. No way is his contract worth it, but blah blah blah Reyes out blah blah speed and defense yada yada yada

[Frayed Knot]

Crawford's been a GG-quality LFer who somehow managed to look like shit defensively down the stretch, costing them at least two games including that final one.
Normally you don't think of defense as something that slumps in the way hitting does but it's tough to explain this year for him in any capacity.

[Edgy MD]

Keith always insisted that defense slumps. If so, I imagine that it's just not as obvious as batting because the chances don't come on you so regularly. And the odds remain on your side even at your Butch Hobson-y worst.

I guess we're going to be spending a lot of the offseason talking about potentially still-useful pitchers who have prohibitive contracts. Here's a few of the obviousies. Please add any I've missed.

Player	Team	2011	2012	2013	2014	Other
Matsuzaka	BOS	3-3, 5.30	$10 million			Tommy John surgery in June.
Zito	SF	3-4, 5.87	$19 million	$20 million	$18 million or 7 million buyout	Option vests with 400 IP in 2012-2013 or 600 IP in 2012-2014.
Zambrano	CHN	9-7, 4.82	$18 million	$19.25 million option		Option vests if CZ finishes in top four in 2012 CYA voiting. Also put up an .848 OPS in 48 PA. (.646 career.) Mercurial and volcanic temper.*

Amazing how much of the burden of Zito's contract is still to come.

* Yes, it takes comparisons to two gods to describe Carlos' temper.

[ashie62]

Frayed Knot wrote: Crawford's been a GG-quality LFer who somehow managed to look like shit defensively down the stretch, costing them at least two games including that final one. Normally you don't think of defense as something that slumps in the way hitting does but it's tough to explain this year for him in any capacity.

It would be kinda funny if Fred brought in Carl Crawford money.

[Guest attgig]

agree with Vic. Bay is overpaid, but not has horribly as Lackey. plus, i don't know if lackey's really any better than pelfrey.

The only reason I'd trade bay is to get someone who's contract ends EARLIER, not later.

If you're looking for pitching, I'd think someone like Derek Lowe would be more of a trading deal. overpaid, but one year left. atl could use some OF help. that said, not likely to happen.
If ryan braun wasn't in LF, maybe randy wolf could've worked too.

[Edgy MD]

Player	Team	2011	2012	2013	2014	Other
Matsuzaka	BOS	3-3, 5.30	$10 million			Tommy John surgery in June.
Zito	SF	3-4, 5.87	$19 million	$20 million	$18 million or 7 million buyout	Option vests with 400 IP in 2012-2013 or 600 IP in 2012-2014.
Zambrano	CHN	9-7, 4.82	$18 million	$19.25 million option		Option vests if CZ finishes in top four in 2012 CYA voiting. Also put up an .848 OPS in 48 PA. (.646 career.) Mercurial and volcanic temper.*
Lowe	ATL	9-17, 5.05	$15 million			Tacky wedding after tacky affair. Drag-racing and charged with DUI after declining to take a breathalyzer test.

[Ceetar]

attgig wrote: agree with Vic. Bay is overpaid, but not has horribly as Lackey. plus, i don't know if lackey's really any better than pelfrey. The only reason I'd trade bay is to get someone who's contract ends EARLIER, not later. If you're looking for pitching, I'd think someone like Derek Lowe would be more of a trading deal. overpaid, but one year left. atl could use some OF help. that said, not likely to happen. If ryan braun wasn't in LF, maybe randy wolf could've worked too.

L
The Mets don't need offense. Their offense is actually quite good. You can live with a *hopefully* league averageish year from Bay.(which in the worst cases you can probably augment your LF productivity by bringing in a bench guy that hits righties well, and sitting Bay against the tougher ones) Bringing in ackey to suck in the rotation puts pressure on the other four guys to step it up if the Mets are going to be good.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

So happy we dodged that Zito bullet. I know I was calling for Omar to sign him.

[Edgy MD]

So, Ceets, you vote to hold 'em --- at least regarding Bay --- and try to get better?

Player	Team	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	Other
Bay	NYM	.245/.329/.374//.703	$16 million	$16 million	$17 million or $3 million buyout
Matsuzaka	BOS	3-3, 5.30	$10 million						Tommy John surgery in June.
Zito	SF	3-4, 5.87	$19 million	$20 million	$18 million or 7 million buyout				Option vests with 400 IP in 2012-2013 or 600 IP in 2012-2014.
Zambrano	CHN	9-7, 4.82	$18 million	$19.25 million option					Option vests if CZ finishes in top four in 2012 CYA voiting. Also put up an .848 OPS in 48 PA. (.646 career.) Mercurial and volcanic temper.*
Lowe	ATL	9-17, 5.05	$15 million						Tacky wedding after tacky affair. Drag-racing and charged with DUI after declining to take a breathalyzer test.
Crawford	BOS	.255/.289/.405//.694	$19.5 million	$20 million	$20.25 million	$20.5 million	$20.75 million	$21 million

Boston would have to add a lot of sweetener to get me to swallow that Crawford contract. Hopefully Francona reminds the media that he's not the guy who handed out that deal.

[Ceetar]

Yeah. I'd keep Jason Bay. If I traded him, I'd be looking for pitching, but prospect level/young 'stud' reliever. Don't know that you get that.

Duda is still a ?, though I like what he's suggesting he can do so far. Personally I think Pagan stays and is valuable, but Bay is almost the most solid spot out there, so it's probably too much to expect Sandy to worry about him as well.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Let's give Bay a year to see how he responds to the new fences.

[metirish]

I'm sitting on the fence with this one, at least until they are moved anyway.

[Ceetar]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: Let's give Bay a year to see how he responds to the new fences.

Irrelevant. If he hits 8 more home runs but still has a .700 OPS and goes 0-30 on a whim, I still want him traded.

[Edgy MD]

I'm always for solving problems through development, rather than dealing on the market.

On the other hand, baseball-reference compares Bay's career to that of Geoff Jenkins, and Jenkins fell of a cliff at 32.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jenkige01.shtml

[Benjamin Grimm]

My guess is that Sandy will try to trade Bay, but won't be able to close a deal.

I don't see where else he can shed a big chunk of salary, if he's so inclined. Nobody's going to take on Santana's salary until they see that he can pitch. I don't think Wright is going anywhere.

[Frayed Knot]

metirish wrote: I'm sitting on the fence with this one, at least until they are moved anyway.

Sitting on the fence while they move it sounds like it could be painful.
Of course it would be worse were it a picket fence.

[Guest attgig]

according to espn rumors, colorado is looking for a full time LF'er. he could be a bounce back candidate for colorado. after their new contract with Tulo, not sure how much money they'd want to put into bay (though they are getting rid of helton's contract).
problem is, all their pitching is young and cheap. they won't really have much pressure to throw someone that may be overpaid.

[MFS62]

Any word on the recovery/ progress of Chris Young?
Is he still under the control of the Mets? Baseball-reference doesn't tell us the length of the contract he signed with the Mets.
If healthy, he might be the best option of all.
Then again, "if healthy" has been mentioned in the same sentence as his name for years.

Later.

[Edgy MD]

Chris Young signed a one-year contract and is a free agent.

[Gwreck]

Young will not be ready for opening day given the typical 1 year recovery time from the surgery he had.

[Edgy MD]

Plus he'll need a new agent, now that Lon Babby is the president of the Phoenix Suns.

[smg58]

The Rockies were willing to pay half of Michael Young's salary in the spring, and probably now wish they were more generous. Perhaps they'd be more amenable this time around. They also offered Eric Young Jr. as bait. Young still has upside, and could fill any one of a number of roles. Worth at least looking into.

Taking Lackey or Zito would be taking worse contracts. But I'd consider dealing Bay for Zambrano or Dice-K if the numbers work.

[Guest sharpie]

I usually don't like trading hitting for pitching. I especially don't like trading hitting for lousy pitching.

No.

Give Bay a year with the new fences. Hope he isn't Jeff Geonkins.

[Guest attgig]

from Doc Gooden:

An American League team with a small park would take Bay... How about the @Yankees? I think Bay 4 Burnett... I would do that in a heartbeat

http://twitter.com/#!/DocGooden16


that's a possible suggestion. though i think the consensus around here is keep bay.

[metirish]

The thought of having to root for Burnett is not a pleasant one.

[Edgy MD]

I'm guessing Doc isn't operating from a comprehensive knowledge of the league at large.

I don't know if it's still like this, but I seem to remember when all WFAN caller trade proposals called on the Mets to trade for:

[list:24ft0app][*:24ft0app]All-Stars[/*:m:24ft0app]
[*:24ft0app]Yankees[/*:m:24ft0app]
[*:24ft0app]Former All-Stars[/*:m:24ft0app]
[*:24ft0app]Former Yankees[/*:m:24ft0app]
[*:24ft0app]Former Mets[/*:m:24ft0app][/list:u:24ft0app]

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: The thought of having to root for Burnett is not a pleasant one.

he makes more. He's older.

I'd consider it... if the Yankees paid most of his salary to the extent that the Mets could just release him in June if he wasn't performing. Also if the Mets had enough outfielders to comfortably play out there, which they don't. They'd have to sign someone. if you tell me you're signing Beltran and Duda will play left, sure.

No way they do this anyway though. It's much much easier to extract limited value from Bay via platoons and pinch hitting. What are you going to do with Burnett? long relief? The roster spot for a pitcher is much more valuable to the Mets than the LF spot.