Possible 2012 Outfield

[Edgy MD]

Emotion aside, I go find a useful past-time.

[Ceetar]

this is just off the top of my head, but give me the Mets 8 hitters over the Phillies. It's less obvious without Reyes, but still.

[Benjamin Grimm]

And I suppose you'd take the Mets pitchers over the Phillies too?

[Lefty Specialist]

TheOldMole wrote: Krakatoa was actually west of Java.

Well, sure, NOW it is.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: And I suppose you'd take the Mets pitchers over the Phillies too?

The Phillies pitchers are what got them to 100 wins. The Mets scored more runs than them last year, and had a higher OBP. (That's without adjusting for park factor btw)

Although they do seem to turn seemingly crappy relievers into contributors, which seems surprising given the stadium.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

So, apart from the dominant rotation, superior 'pen, and the fact that Reyes and Beltran don't live here anymore... you'll take the Mets, right?

The Phils, by my estimation, have the better player at 5 of the 8 positions (C, 2B, SS, CF, RF), at least... and I think I'm being generous when I say "at least." [And "this guy says things that I perceive as wrong or negative" doesn't constitute "bias."]

[Ceetar]

So, apart from the dominant rotation, superior 'pen, and the fact that Reyes and Beltran don't live here anymore... you'll take the Mets, right? The Phils, by my estimation, have the better player at 5 of the 8 positions (C, 2B, SS, CF, RF), at least... and I think I'm being generous when I say "at least." [And "this guy says things that I perceive as wrong or negative" doesn't constitute "bias."]

calling it writing to the narrative if you want, instead of bias. The inconsistency of it for instance. Steven Strasburg has been here 5 minutes. He's thrown less than 100 innings in his career. He's better than Johan Santana? Oh, you're factoring in injury? Josh Johnson was injured almost all of last season. Here's an injury report from August.

Since the end of last season, Johnson has been dealing with the effects of some sort of muscular or capsular issue at the back of his shoulder. Even the full offseason didn't help, as Johnson said it's been sore since spring training. Johnson's heavy workload in the two years since he returned from elbow reconstruction are both positive and negative. The Marlins have to figure out how to heal the issue and to keep it from recurring under a normal workload. Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/will_carroll/07/01/injury.report/index.html#ixzz1jlHIrfgr

Capsular issue? That's what Johan had repaired. It's certainly not out of the question for me to say Johan, who's already had the injury repaired, could very easily be 'better than' Johnson. whatever that means. Johnson hasn't pitched healthy since late 2010 either. I'll obviously give you Hudson and Halladay.

The Mets offense has taken a clear hit, but they're also basically adding a healed-back Wright, Ike Davis and a full season of Lucas Duda. The Phillies have Dominick Brown to look at for improvement on their end, but many of the rest of guys are trending downwards and aging. Especially given the state of the two teams right now, I absolutely would rather take the Mets offense. That's the question I was answering. It certainly seems to have more growth potential.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I feel like I'm arguing with a billboard-- I keep arguing different things, and yelling louder, and it just says what it says.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I feel like I'm arguing with a billboard-- I keep arguing different things, and yelling louder, and it just says what it says.

sorry, why are we changing the argument again? Maybe stop putting words in my mouth and pretend I'm arguing something different?

You asked which lineup I wouldn't trade for the Mets. I gave you one. I think the reasons I laid out were pretty fair.

[smg58]

The Mets offense really is better than a lot of people think, the absence of a leadoff hitter notwithstanding. They outscored the Phillies last year in spite of the park, losing Davis for most of the year, another off year from Wright, and getting basically nothing from Bay.

Pitching and defense are other matters entirely, however. I fear that bringing in the walls will expose our pitchers more than it helps our hitters. You would have to think the park is the only reason Wright and Bay have underproduced to think this will work in our favor with the team as it's currently structured, and I just don't see it.

I'm not expecting miracles from Murphy at second, but I'm not expecting anything biblical in the other direction either. He'll be below average, but we haven't been above average at second since Valentin in 06 and Murphy can at least hit. I'm much more worried about Duda.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Really, it's more my fault. I shouldn't ask-- much less expect-- something I know you can't provide, and I shouldn't get frustrated when you can't provide it, much less go vaguely ad hominem.

Going point-by-point...

1) Strasburg pitched-- and pitched very, very well-- at the end of last season. He seems entirely in line to outperform-- or at least give a more predictable positive performance-- than Johan. Santana HAD a capsular issue, has spent more than a year recovering, and appears at this point to be unable to contribute from Day One (at least); Johnson MAY have a capsular issue, pitched into May last year, and pitched live BP a handful of times.

Impartial third parties look at the three and rank them without prejudice, and this strikes you as "writing to the narrative;" it strikes me as "a fair evaluation by an impartial third party."

2)

The Mets offense has taken a clear hit, but they're also basically adding a healed-back Wright, Ike Davis and a full season of Lucas Duda.

Wright has declined for three years running with both bat and glove. Davis may not come back 100 percent, and if he does, he almost definitely won't be quite the player he was at the beginning of last year. Duda has some room to grow as a batter, granted, but is kindasorta wretched with the glove and-- at best-- will match Hunter Pence's offensive value.

The Phillies have Dominick Brown to look at for improvement on their end, but many of the rest of guys are trending downwards and aging.

Mayberry. Full season of Pence. Wigginton instead of Rule 5 guys backing up the corners. A Jim Thome that OPSed .838 and slugged 15 HR in less than 300 AB. They're all likely better bets than, say, a 70-percent-of-prime Jason Bay or a Josh Thole that matches Ruiz with bat/glove.

Especially given the state of the two teams right now, I absolutely would rather take the Mets offense. That's the question I was answering. It certainly seems to have more growth potential.

The Mets were a pretty good offense last year; they have lost about 1/3 of what made them a good offense. I'll say this as politely as I can muster: your conclusion makes me think that you either are experiencing really boring hallucinations or have serious vision problems.

[batmagadanleadoff]

smg58 wrote: The Mets offense really is better than a lot of people think, the absence of a leadoff hitter notwithstanding. They outscored the Phillies last year in spite of the park, losing Davis for most of the year, another off year from Wright, and getting basically nothing from Bay. Pitching and defense are other matters entirely, however. I fear that bringing in the walls will expose our pitchers more than it helps our hitters. You would have to think the park is the only reason Wright and Bay have underproduced to think this will work in our favor with the team as it's currently structured, and I just don't see it. I'm not expecting miracles from Murphy at second, but I'm not expecting anything biblical in the other direction either. He'll be below average, but we haven't been above average at second since Valentin in 06 and Murphy can at least hit. I'm much more worried about Duda.

I.
The Mets are merely carving the cavern out of that cavernous ridiculousity they play in. They're not transforming Citi Field into a Little League-sized diamond, or even a modern Major League bandbox like Citizen's Bank Park. If Met pitchers can't pitch in CF II, that'll say more about their shortcomings than about the shorter dimensions.

II.
If it turns out that some Met batters altered their swings to combat Citi Field's daunting dimensions, then the new configuration should help the Mets more than their visitors, who were just passing through and, presumably, had no reason to screw around with their swings.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Guest

[Ceetar]

1. Strasburg threw 24 innings. That's practically nothing. Miguel Batista pitched to a 2.64 ERA in 30 IP with the Mets. Strasburg is of the same ilk as Tim Tebow, in terms of ESPNs opinion of him.

[indent:wh5ah5pl]btw, if we're going to annoint rookies on small sample sizes, Lucas Duda had a higher OPS than every Phillie except Pence and was only .002 behind Mayberry. He was better than Werth and Heyward. It's this sort of inconsistency in analysis that makes me reject it.[/indent:wh5ah5pl]

Santana does _not_ appear unable to contribute from day one. That's complete speculation.

"He's been throwing and doing his long-toss program," "By mid-month, he will be on the mound, making his progression, like our other pitchers. The shoulder strength is good. I think his spirits are good. Everything is pointing in the right direction. We can keep our fingers crossed that the injuries of last year are behind him, because we need him to lead our rotation."

"missed a majority of 2011 with right shoulder inflammation. The plan is for the pitcher to be at full speed, with no restrictions, when pitchers and catchers begin workouts in Fla."

Those quotes could easily be about Santana, but they're about Johnson. Yes, he pitched into May but he was shut down late the year before and says he was in pain throughout spring training and until he was shut down. But I'm sure he's fine. No red flags there, of course not.

2. I'll take my chances with Wright considering he played with a broken back for a good portion of last year. He did seem to be making some strides in the second half. There's also the "possible contract year" thing too.

I don't see any indication that Davis may not come back 100%. Roy Halladay could trip on his way to his car too and break his ankle. He's healthy. Why wouldn't he be quite the player he was at the beginning of last year? There's a lot unknown about Ike Davis, but I dont know that there's any reason to think he can't do it.

Duda has a .815 career OPS, Pence's is .828. Maybe the best he can do is improve .13, but considering he was at .852 last year, I wouldn't bet on it.

Thome hasn't played the field since 2004. He's 41. I'm sure he can probably still mash it a bit, but hard to know what the added load of playing the field will do to him. And I imagine even I could probably drag bunt for a hit with him there.

I'm willing to wager on this. The Mets will score more runs than the Phillies. Even ignoring park factor.

[smg58]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If Met pitchers can't pitch in CF II, that'll say more about their mediocrity than about the new dimensions.

I don't think the new dimensions will turn the place into a hitter's park, but what barely passed as mediocrity last year could look a lot worse this year.

[ashie62]

Johan Santana..128 million dollars of nothing but a hand job. I personally, will be shocked if he is on time or breaks 100 innings. Berry Berry bad signing.

[Guest attgig]

Ceetar wrote: I'm willing to wager on this. The Mets will score more runs than the Phillies. Even ignoring park factor.

$20 to the charity of the winner's choice? I'm in on that wager.

[Vic Sage]

count me in, too.

[ashie62]

attgig wrote: Ceetar wrote: I'm willing to wager on this. The Mets will score more runs than the Phillies. Even ignoring park factor. $20 to the charity of the winner's choice? I'm in on that wager.

You really think that, or is it from the heart?

[Ceetar]

I"m not sure how to make it a 3 or 4 way bet, but sounds good to me.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Just for support I will join #TeamCeetar, and will take on Vics call for action.

[Edgy MD]

Beyond the park advantage, the Phils' offense has the advantage of batting against the Mets' pitching staff, while the Mets' hitters choke up against the Phils' pitchers for 18 games.

The Mets' offense has the advantage of being awesome.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Beyond the park advantage, the Phils' offense has the advantage of batting against the Mets' pitching staff, while the Mets' hitters choke up against the Phils' pitchers for 18 games. The Mets' offense has the advantage of being awesome.

yeah, but Cole Hamels is basically Miguel Batista when he faces the Mets.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'm in, too. Who's for what, now?

[Guest attgig]

Ashie62 wrote: attgig wrote: Ceetar wrote: I'm willing to wager on this. The Mets will score more runs than the Phillies. Even ignoring park factor. $20 to the charity of the winner's choice? I'm in on that wager. You really think that, or is it from the heart?

think that? yes
from the heart? not sure what that means, but yes.