In-Draft Thread - 2011

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy DC wrote: Is there a page running in and out of the negotiating room fetching water and canapes and giving the pressmen updates?

There used to be, but Congress just cut the funding for all pages.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The room is in the SD hotel, so... ahi tacos, maybe?

Mmm... little fish tacos!

[Frayed Knot]

Keith Law: Mets sign Brandon Nimmo for $2.1MM

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

And Logan Verrett gets 425 K worth of sausages

[Guest Edgy DC]

Double-plus good.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Sweet haul this year, it seems.

$2.1M's not much above slot.

Edited August 15, 2011 by Guest

[Guest Edgy DC]

Pick	Signed
Rd. 1 (13th overall), Brandon Nimmo, Cheyenne East HS (Wy.)	X
Rd. 1A (44th overall), Michael Fulmer, Deer Creek HS (Ok.)	X - Gulf Coast
Rd. 2 (71st overall), Cory Mazzoni, RHP, N.C. State	X - St. Lucie
Rd. 3 (101), Logan Verrett, RHP, Baylor	X
Rd. 4 (132), Tyler Pill, RHP, Cal State Fullerton	X - Brooklyn
Rd. 5 (162), Jack Leathersich, LHP, UMass Lowell	X - Brooklyn
Rd. 6 (192), Joe Tuschak, CF, Northern (Dillsburg, Pa.) HS	X - Gulf Coast
Rd. 7 (222), Cole Frenzel, 1B, Arizona	X - Brooklyn
Rd. 8 (252), Danny Muno, SS, Fresno State	X - Brooklyn
Rd. 9 (282), Alex Panteliodis, LHP, Florida	X - Gulf Coast (inactive)
Rd. 10 (312), Matthew Budgell, RHP, Woodbridge (Calif.) HS	X - Gulf Coast
Rd. 11 (342), Chris Montgomery, RHP, Lawrence Central (Ind.) HS	X
Rd. 12 (372), Kenny Mathews, LHP, Diamond Bar (Calif.) HS	=#FF0000]Cal State-Fullerton
Rd. 13 (402), Robert Gsellman, RHP, Westchester (Calif.) HS	X - Gulf Coast
Rd. 14 (432), Xorge Carrillo, C, Arizona State	X - Brooklyn
Rd. 15 (462), Phillip Evans, SS, La Costa Canyon (Calif.) HS	X
Rd. 16 (492), [crossout]Brandon[/crossout] Bradley Marquez, CF, Odessa (Texas) HS	X
Rd. 17 (522), Jonathan Clark, CF, Lee University	X
Rd. 18 (552), Travis Taijeron, CF, Cal Poly Pomona	X
Rd. 19 (582), Dustin Lawley, CF, Univ. of West Florida	X
Rd. 20 (612), Mason Robbins, CF, George County (Miss.) HS	=#FF0000]Southern Miss
Rd. 21 (642), [crossout]Jonathan[/crossout] John Gant, RHP, Wiregrass Ranch (Fla.) HS	X - Gulf Coast
Rd. 22 (672), Casey Turgeon, SS, Dunedin (Fla.) HS	=#FF0000]Florida
Rd. 23 (702), Jeffrey Diehl, C, Cranton (R.I.) HS West	X
Rd. 24 (732), Tant Shepherd, 1B, Texas	X - Kingsport
Rd. 25 (762), Andrew Reed, LHP, Terre Haute (Ind.) South Vigo HS	=#FF0000]Kentucky
Rd. 26 (792), Casey Hauptman, RHP, Nebraska	X
Rd. 27 (822), Randy Fontanez, RHP, South Florida	X
Rd. 28 (852), Jharel Cotton, RHP, Miami Dade CC South	=#FF0000]East Carolina
Rd. 29 (882), Joshua Ake, SS, Hunterdon Central (NJ) Regional HS	=#FF0000]Cal State-Fullerton
Rd. 30 (912), Jacob Hansen, LHP, F.P. Walshe HS (Fort Macleod, Alberta)
Rd. 31 (942); Chad Zurcher, SS, Memphis, Tenn.	X
Rd. 32 (972); Carlos Leyva, SS, Cal State Dominguez Hills, Calif.	X - Brooklyn
Rd. 33 (1,002); Tyson Seng, RHP, Oklahoma, Okla.	X
Rd. 34 (1,032); Jacob Lugo, RHP, Centenary, N.J.	X
Rd. 35 (1,062); Chase Bradford, RHP, Central Florida, Fla.	X
Rd. 36 (1,092); Ryan Hutson, 1B, Texas-San Antonio, Texas	X
Rd. 37 (1,122); Craig Missigman, RHP, Olympic HS, Charlotte, N.C.	X
Rd. 38 (1,152); Dustin Emmons, RHP, UC RIverside, Calif.	X
Rd. 39 (1,182); Charley Thurber, OF, Tennessee, Tenn.	X
Rd. 40 (1,212); Alexis Mercado, C, Otay Ranch HS, Chula Vista, Calif
Rd. 41 (1,242); Mark Picca, LHP, Texas-Arlington, Texas	X
Rd. 42 (1,272); Gregory Pron, OF, West Florida, Fla.	X
Rd. 43 (1,302); Jacob Decker, SS, Piedmont (Okla.) HS, Okla.
Rd. 44 (1,332); Clint Sharp, RHP, Howard (Texas) JC, Texas
Rd. 45 (1,362); Andrew Marra, RHP, St. Thomas of Villanova, LaSalle, Ont.
Rd. 46 (1,392); Richard Ruff, RHP, Quincy (Ill.), Ill.	X
Rd. 47 (1,422); Cole Limbaugh, RHP, Childersburg (Ala.) HS, Ala.	=#FF0000]Samford
Rd. 48 (1,452); Malcolm Clapsaddle, RHP, Santa Fe (Fla.) JC, Fla.	=#FF0000]Georgia
Rd. 49 (1,482); Sean Buckle, LHP, Wilson HS, Long Beach, Calif.	=#FF0000]Loyola-Marymount, neck injury
Rd. 50 (1,512); Eddie Rohan, C, Winthrop, S.C.	X

[Frayed Knot]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: $2.1M's not much above slot.

Yeah, and Nimmo's father indicating that $2.5M was "a nice starting point for discussion" didn't exactly work out too well either.

[MFS62]

It came down to the last minute.
I was getting worried that he might sign with the Eagles instead.

Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

It's good that the Mets signed Nimmo but I didn't get worked up over last night's 11th hour drama. As a Mets fan, I hope for a future where Nimmo is elected to MLB's Hall of Fame -- a NY Met cap engraved on his plaque.

But if Nimmo ever gets into a major league game, even if for just one defensive play, he'll have accomplished more than most overall 13th picks: because most overall 13th picks never ever get out of the minor leagues.

[Guest Edgy DC]

You've got to get your players from somewhere. It's a better bet than most.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Sweet haul this year, it seems. $2.1M's not much above slot.

obviously this means Sandy is a disaster right? toeing the Wilpon line? something?

Looks like most of the top guys signed. they seem to have missed the 12th round pick, a lefty pitcher.

[ashie62]

The Mets now own the best baseball player in Wyoming history's ass..

[Guest Edgy DC]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: It's good that the Mets signed Nimmo but I didn't get worked up over last night's 11th hour drama. As a Mets fan, I hope for a future where Nimmo is elected to MLB's Hall of Fame -- a NY Met cap engraved on his plaque. But if Nimmo ever gets into a major league game, even if for just one defensive play, he'll have accomplished more than most overall 13th picks: because most overall 13th picks never ever get out of the minor leagues.

I show 25/46 such picks (54.3%) from the history of the June draft have made it out of the minors. If you're willing to discount the three recent picks who are still at play in the fields of the Lord, then it's 25/43 (58.1%).

Interestingly, 2010's number 13 pick, Chris Sale of the White Sox is the first and so far only pick from that round to appear.

[Frayed Knot]

BA's database shows #s 11 & 13 as signed.
The rest of the list seems to be correct on the above chart. Of the top 25 only #s 12, 20, 22 & 25 did not sign.

[Frayed Knot]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: It's good that the Mets signed Nimmo but I didn't get worked up over last night's 11th hour drama. As a Mets fan, I hope for a future where Nimmo is elected to MLB's Hall of Fame -- a NY Met cap engraved on his plaque. But if Nimmo ever gets into a major league game, even if for just one defensive play, he'll have accomplished more than most overall 13th picks: because most overall 13th picks never ever get out of the minor leagues.

And then there's the likes of Aaron Hill, Casey Kotchman, Paul Konerko, Manny Ramirez, Bill Spiers, Gary Templeton, Frank Tanana, & Gary Nolan from the 13th slot in the draft.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: It's good that the Mets signed Nimmo but I didn't get worked up over last night's 11th hour drama. As a Mets fan, I hope for a future where Nimmo is elected to MLB's Hall of Fame -- a NY Met cap engraved on his plaque. But if Nimmo ever gets into a major league game, even if for just one defensive play, he'll have accomplished more than most overall 13th picks: because most overall 13th picks never ever get out of the minor leagues. And then there's the likes of Aaron Hill, Casey Kotchman, Paul Konerko, Manny Ramirez, Bill Spiers, Gary Templeton, Frank Tanana, & Gary Nolan from the 13th slot in the draft.

And Keith Hernandez was drafted after dozens of rounds. So what? I didn't say that the Mets should forfeit their picks. I'm just saying that the odds are very long -- so long that right now Nimmo doesn't do anything for me. Hey, six or so years ago, credible people were saying that the Mets were poised to soon field one of baseball's best young homegrown outfields (Milledge, Gomez & F-Mart).

[Guest Edgy DC]

The odds are long with everybody. They're far shorter there. This seems obvious.

And you're apparently wrong about the more-than-most account, so I don't know why you're grinding this axe.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy DC wrote: And you're apparently wrong about the more-than-most account, so I don't know why you're grinding this axe.

So 25 out of 46 made it to the majors instead of 22 out of 46. Picky picky. What axe am I grinding?

[Guest Edgy DC]

So 25 out of 46 made it to the majors...

So, no, you're apparently not willing to discount the three players still in the minors.

You mis-state the facts, for whatever reason. I don't think it's bad on me to get it right.

What axe? This is the second time we've been down this road, facts be damned.

Jose Reyes goes up to the plate. Most of the time, he makes out rather than reaching base.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy DC wrote: So 25 out of 46 made it to the majors... So, no, you're apparently not willing to discount the three players still in the minors. You mis-state the facts, for whatever reason. I don't think it's bad on me to get it right. What axe? This is the second time we've been down this road, facts be damned.

Fair enough. 25 out of 43 instead of 25 out of 46. It wasn't my intent to ignore your numbers. I skimmed your post and overlooked that 25/43 part..

Like that's gonna change anything. We're both talking about historical odds of a thirteener merely playing in the majors --slim--, without even then considering whether he's gonna be a Manny Ramirez or a Lute Barnes.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't consider a 58% chance of appearing slim at all --- certainly not when compared to the general population of professional minor league prospects.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy DC wrote: I don't consider a 58% chance of appearing slim at all --- certainly not when compared to the general population of professional minor league prospects.

That's a logical rebuttal. The part about axing grinds, not so much.

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy DC wrote: I don't consider a 58% chance of appearing slim at all --- certainly not when compared to the general population of professional minor league prospects. That's a logical rebuttal. The part about axing grinds, not so much.

* But you still gotta consider whether Nimmo's gonna be a star or a scrub and that it's not just about getting there.

[ashie62]

You pay for the draft pick and hope for the best.

2000 1st Round Picks Rick Asadoorian of the Red Sox and B.J. Garbe of the Twins never got one MLB plate appearance.

There is no formula.

[Vic Sage]

i remember that, years ago (feels like a century), both I and FKnot did some research (independent of each other) on 1st round draft picks and what % of them made it (1) for a cup of coffee, (2) as short-career starters or career reserves, (3) as starters with solid careers, (4) as all-stars, or (5) not at all. i wish i remembered our conclusions, but i think there was a surprisingly small % of types 3 and 4, which bolstered my position as president of TiTTS.

all these years later, i still think Batmags' overall point, albeit overstated, is sound in that getting excited about particular draft picks in baseball isn't a particularly useful expenditure of time and energy for fans, seeing how few of them ultimately make a significant impact on your team.

Its a hard lesson to learn sometimes. i call it the "Leary Lesson".

[bmfc1]

The future--Nimmo and Wheeler today at Port St. Luice:

[Frayed Knot]

Vic Sage wrote: i remember that, years ago (feels like a century), both I and FKnot did some research (independent of each other) on 1st round draft picks and what % of them made it (1) for a cup of coffee, (2) as short-career starters or career reserves, (3) as starters with solid careers, (4) as all-stars, or (5) not at all. i wish i remembered our conclusions, but i think there was a surprisingly small % of types 3 and 4, which bolstered my position as president of TiTTS. all these years later, i still think Batmags' overall point, albeit overstated, is sound in that getting excited about particular draft picks in baseball isn't a particularly useful expenditure of time and energy for fans, seeing how few of them ultimately make a significant impact on your team. Its a hard lesson to learn sometimes. i call it the "Leary Lesson".

Some of that was probably from a BA 'study' which tracked about 10 years of draft picks and assigned them into various categories.
And, yes, the odds of a player becoming a star a lot smaller than one failing to make the majors entirely and considerably smaller than most fans think.

On the other hand, the odds on 1st round picks eventually contributing is a lot higher than those in later rounds and in the top half of round 1 it becomes higher still. Plus the control you get from young players who do make it makes it one of the most cost effective ways of finding good players even as the price of these picks continues to rise.
The other thing that increases your odds of striking gold is to identify those players who you suspect could be top draft picks later on and go "over slot" to buy them out of potential scholarships. That is one thing recent NYM regimes have not been doing but which this front office seems to have embraced.

It's also, you know, like fun to see players grow up in your system and eventually find the big club. Those who advocate not signing this FA or trading for that one because they're already penciling Nimmo into the starting lineup for 2013 or 2014 or whenever deserve whatever disappointment they get, but getting a guy like that under contract is certainly better than not having him.

[Guest Edgy DC]

And getting 10 is better still. And when you're rooting for a healthy, well performing organization, you prefer to see them drop another half million on draftees when you know how little (and how little risk protection) a half million buys you on the free agency market. The Nats doubled down and doubled down again on the draft this year, dropping $16.5 million on five players, going over slot several times, signing two guys to major league contracts. Risky? Maybe, but the risk is spread out over a bunch of players over years and years of service, and if they hit on half of them, they score big. And it's all for about what they're paying their underperforming free-agent rightfielder for a season.

Risk: it's everywhere. But it's also relative.

[Frayed Knot]

If everything breaks well for the Nats they going to have a very nice core in a year or two.
- first they not only get the top overall pick two years running but do so in years where there's a clear-cut #1 choice
- then in this year they picked 6th but got the pre-season overall favorite (Anthony Rendon who most touts claimed they'd take over Harper) who fell due to some injury concerns
- and their 3rd round pick (Matt Purke) was considered top 5 material but also had injury concerns plus was a sophmore eligible player who wasn't expected to sign.

No guarantees of course and it cost them a ton of cash to sign all those guys but that's two pitchers and two hitters three of which (all but Purke) might rate a top-5 pick even if one were to combine the last half-dozen drafts.