After "Madoff's Curveball"

[metirish]

[youtube:1dncavp0]GiPe1OiKQuk[/youtube:1dncavp0]

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I don't see where Sandy says that the $100 million figure is untrue (which is what I was hoping to see) just that we shouldn't overreact to it. All I can say is, if the Wilpons can't afford to run a large-market team like a large-market team, they need to step aside. The sooner the better.

You're preaching to the choir, here. The even bigger insult will occur if the Mets intend to continue to charge fans close to $200 for an infield field level ticket to watch a mid-market payroll team.

[soupcan]

I don't know how many of you have read the S.I. article yet, but it sez that all the money coming off the books will not be going back into salary. It is to be reinvested in the club.

I took that to mean 'paying off debts'.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: I'm sure there's a limit, a budget, an idea. But Alderson has made that clear that ....

Alderson said this and Freddie said that. Between the fact that nobody in the Mets FO is ever bound by anything they tell you (Whaddya gonna do if they lied to you? Sue them? Root for the Phillies?) , the vast wiggle room that they enjoy from their purposely vague comments, and the changing-every-minute nature of the Madoff affair, what Alderson or Wilpon tell you today is absolutely meaningless. To hang your hat on their every word, parsing their comments to the ridiculous nth degree for some guidance that you think you're gonna discern is a waste of your time. You might as well have a conversation with your pet cat.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: I'm sure there's a limit, a budget, an idea. But Alderson has made that clear that .... Alderson said this and Freddie said that. Between the fact that nobody in the Mets FO is ever bound by anything they tell you (Whaddya gonna do if they lied to you? Sue them? Root for the Phillies?) , the vast wiggle room that they enjoy from their purposely vague comments, and the changing-every-minute nature of the Madoff affair, what Alderson or Wilpon say is absolutely meaningless. To hang your hat on their every word, parsing their comments to the ridiculous nth degree for some guidance that you think you're gonna discern is a waste of your time.

yes, and that includes "maybe it'll be 100million." I don't know when budget season is for MLB teams, when they put out numbers for 2012. (Presumably this is something they want to include in the pitch to the partial buyers) If the Mets get/stay healthy and win 85 games, i.e. if they remain competitive throughout, that estimated 70million loss could easily become 50. Of course, if they stay hurt, trade Reyes and Beltran, 70 can become 80.

More importantly, if the Mets remain competitive, people will buy in to the growth process, buy tickets for next year, and increase the base expected revenue for 2012, which allows the Mets to raise payroll (this is not inconsistant with stuff we've heard from Alderson).

so the bottom line is, the best way for the Mets to be good next year is to be good this year. Just win. Factor this in to the idea that if they trade Reyes, especially for non-ML talent that no one will even see, the despair and disappointment and the losing in August and September is going to sour potential buyers of season tickets and renewals.

Plenty of people are throwing out numbers and basically pulling them out of thin air. While the quotes of Alderson, and less so Wilpon, are basically meaningless, it's the only thing we have to go on because trying to guess based on what goes on with the trade deadline. Obviously if they sign players like Alderson has claimed they'll be able to do if they need/want to, that suggests one thing, and if the sell Beltran and Reyes and Frankie and Misch and the water cooler in the visitors dugout, it says another. We don't know anything. We never know anything. The Phillies looked tapped out and signed Cliff Lee. The Yankees last year didn't want to resign Matsui or Damon despite coming off a world series and seemed to infer they did have a budget.

I just refuse to be all doom and gloom and guess that they're going into a 3-year rebuilding process of suck when there are no more signs out of Flushing that they will than won't.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: I just refuse to be all doom and gloom and guess that they're going into a 3-year rebuilding process of suck when there are no more signs out of Flushing that they will than won't.

Well then look on the bright side. Josh Thole could develop into the next Johnny Bench; Miguel Tejada -- the next Ernie Banks. The Giants might give us Tim Lincecum for Jose Reyes. If Dillon Gee learns to pitch like Greg Maddux and Johan Santana has another Cy Young caliber season, the Mets should be competitive.

[metirish]

Do all those missing fans come back with a competitive 85 win team?, I don't think so , playoffs is what's needed to get the excitement and fans back IMO.

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: Do all those missing fans come back with a competitive 85 win team?, I don't think so , playoffs is what's needed to get the excitement and fans back IMO.

I dunno. I think that's very much up in the air, and I'm glad i'm not the one predicting it and budgeting for it. Johan coming back plays in too. I know regardless of standings if he returns I'm going to make a point to get to a game he pitches.

I do think 85ish wins gets some fans. If they're still "in the race" so to speak in August going into September, even if it's mostly a gutshot chance, fans will come. It might just be the difference between fans coming that were already buying tickets and picking up some deals on stub hub. But that's parking an concessions revenue. The park looks fuller, it seems better to prospective advertisers.

And more importantly, I think an above .500 season keeps the status quo at least for season tickets. Keeps more people from jumping ship. Just that mental step forward from last year as "progress" leaves a better feeling with the team, that they're getting better.

[metirish]

I don't think Santana has the personality to draw fans in numbers to a game.

[soupcan]

Well then look on the bright side. Josh Thole could develop into the next Johnny Bench; Miguel Tejada -- the next Ernie Banks. The Giants might give us Tim Lincecum for Jose Reyes. If Dillon Gee learns to pitch like Greg Maddux and Johan Santana has another Cy Young caliber season, the Mets should be competitive.

Uncanny. My mindset from 8th - 10th grade:


John Stearns could develop into the next Johnny Bench; Frank Taveras -- the next Ernie Banks. The Dodgers might give us Fernando Valenzuela for Hubie Brooks. If Tim Leary learns to pitch like Tom Seaver and Randy Jones/Mickey Lolich has another Cy Young caliber season, the Mets should be competitive.

[batmagadanleadoff]

metirish wrote: I don't think Santana has the personality to draw fans in numbers to a game.

If the Mets are irrelevant by the time he returns, I don't think Santana will improve Mets attendance meaningfully, if at all. And if the Mets are out of it and Santana struggles with a diminished repertoire, fugghedaboutit.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Well then look on the bright side. Josh Thole could develop into the next Johnny Bench; Miguel Tejada -- the next Ernie Banks. The Giants might give us Tim Lincecum for Jose Reyes. If Dillon Gee learns to pitch like Greg Maddux and Johan Santana has another Cy Young caliber season, the Mets should be competitive. Uncanny. My mindset from 8th - 10th grade: John Stearns could develop into the next Johnny Bench; Frank Taveras -- the next Ernie Banks. The Dodgers might give us Fernando Valenzuela for Hubie Brooks. If Tim Leary learns to pitch like Tom Seaver and Randy Jones/Mickey Lolich has another Cy Young caliber season, the Mets should be competitive.

Where's Doug Flynn? Wasn't he your favorite? You couldn't have thought that Flynn was gonna be the next Joe Morgan because then the Reds would've kept him. And Ryne Sandberg was still a teenager.

[metsmarathon]

metirish wrote: Do all those missing fans come back with a competitive 85 win team?, I don't think so , playoffs is what's needed to get the excitement and fans back IMO.

not for most of the summer, and probably not too much for the next year either unless there was something big and productive happening over the off season.

[soupcan]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Where's Doug Flynn? Wasn't he your favorite? You couldn't have thought that Flynn was gonna be the next Joe Morgan because then the Reds would've kept him. And Ryne Sandberg was still a teenager.

Correct! However as wide-eyed and Ceetar-ish as I was, I knew Flynn would never be much of a hitter. Loved him for that sweet, sweet golden glove and I would never have considered trading him.

The one solace I took from those lean years was that the Mets would either lead the league or be near the top in DPs turned. It was the ONE thing they did well and how could that continue without Flynn?!

Of course leading the league in DPs also meant that your team had to allow quite a lot of runners to reach base, which was...um, not really a good stat.

[batmagadanleadoff]

soupcan wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Where's Doug Flynn? Wasn't he your favorite? You couldn't have thought that Flynn was gonna be the next Joe Morgan because then the Reds would've kept him. And Ryne Sandberg was still a teenager. Correct! However as wide-eyed and Ceetar-ish as I was, I knew Flynn would never be much of a hitter. Loved him for that sweet, sweet golden glove and I would never have considered trading him. The one solace I took from those lean years was that the Mets would either lead the league or be near the top in DPs turned. It was the ONE thing they did well and how could that continue without Flynn?! Of course leading the league in DPs also meant that your team had to allow quite a lot of runners to reach base, which was...um, not really a good stat.

I'm gonna sign off the CPF for now. I'm probably the last Mets fan you'd wanna have an extended conversation with about Doug Flynn.

[Ceetar]

I don't know why we're making this team out to be a 65 win team again? Are we really that reactionary?

Is it really that wrong to think that everything won't fail? That Jason Bay won't hit .201 for his Mets career and that Johan will actually pitch again, and pretty well, in 2012? That Niese will get better or that Thole will look more like 2010 than 2011?

[soupcan]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I'm gonna sign off the CPF for now. I'm probably the last Mets fan you'd wanna have an extended conversation with about Doug Flynn.

It's cool, I'm long over it.

[soupcan]

Ceetar wrote: I don't know why we're making this team out to be a 65 win team again? Are we really that reactionary? Is it really that wrong to think that everything won't fail? That Jason Bay won't hit .201 for his Mets career and that Johan will actually pitch again, and pretty well, in 2012? That Niese will get better or that Thole will look more like 2010 than 2011?

Ceet - I appreciate the optimism but like I said, you sound like I did in the 70's man. Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'.

Thole? Really? And let's add a Bay - George Foster analogy to my previous post (which is really an insult to Foster).

[Ceetar]

soupcan wrote: Ceetar wrote: I don't know why we're making this team out to be a 65 win team again? Are we really that reactionary? Is it really that wrong to think that everything won't fail? That Jason Bay won't hit .201 for his Mets career and that Johan will actually pitch again, and pretty well, in 2012? That Niese will get better or that Thole will look more like 2010 than 2011? Ceet - I appreciate the optimism but like I said, you sound like I did in the 70's man. Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'. Thole? Really? And let's add a Bay - George Foster analogy to my previous post (which is really an insult to Foster).

Why not? Why can't Thole hit like he did previous to this year? or play defense like it? Why is Jason Bay's 140 or whatever games it's been more telling than his previous 1000? Players don't turn red when they're done.

[dgwphotography]

Well then look on the bright side. Josh Thole could develop into the next Johnny Bench; Miguel Tejada -- the next Ernie Banks. The Giants might give us Tim Lincecum for Jose Reyes. If Dillon Gee learns to pitch like Greg Maddux and Johan Santana has another Cy Young caliber season, the Mets should be competitive. Uncanny. My mindset from 8th - 10th grade: John Stearns could develop into the next Johnny Bench; Frank Taveras -- the next Ernie Banks. The Dodgers might give us Fernando Valenzuela for Hubie Brooks. If Tim Leary learns to pitch like Tom Seaver and Randy Jones/Mickey Lolich has another Cy Young caliber season, the Mets should be competitive.

This just gave me the cold sweats - I was immediately transported back to those dark days....

I'm going to lay down now...

[G-Fafif]

Wait, John Stearns didn't develop into another Johnny Bench?

[Guest Edgy DC]

It's not like there isn't still time.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

G-Fafif wrote: Wait, John Stearns didn't develop into another Johnny Bench?

Well, eventually-- and especially at the cellular level-- their performance levels should be about equal. (If they aren't already.)