2nd Base 2011: Who do you PREDICT? (Revisited)

[HahnSolo]

Even better at the end of the piece he came up with:

"One person somewhat familiar with the Mets' thinking"

[ashie62]

None of the options at 2b are terribly appealing.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

A Guide to Sources of Mets news

Person familiar with the Mets situation = former Mets employee of some importance
Person somewhat familiar with the Mets' thinking = former Mets employee of some importance out of the loop for more than 5 years or Steve Phillips.
Person familiar with the Wilpons = Also Steve Phillips
Person close to the Wilpons = Steve Phillips under a delusional misapprehension the Wilpons still keep in contact with him.
Mets insider = Mets clubhouse assistant.
Member of the Mets� organization = lowly Mets employee or story was made-up by the journo.
Ex-Mets staffer = lowly Mets employee that was fired or Tony Bernazard.
Former Mets executive = Jim Duquette
Long-serving former player = John Franco
Key member of 1986 championship winning team = Rick Darling
Person no stranger to the Mets = Bobby Valentine
Media personality no stranger to the Mets = Tim McCarver (may also refer to Valentine)
Source close to the Mets = bottom-feeding journalist of ill-repute covering the Mets
Well-respected journalist covering the Mets = Bob Klapisch quoting himself
Leading baseball author = Jeff Pearlman
Several people in the know = Employees of the sports section of the Bergen Record, New York Daily News or New York Post.
Mets fans = WFAN callers
Other baseball executives = New York Yankees front-office.
Mets internet sources = Mets blogger of ill-repute

Feel free to add your own.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets will have two openings for reserve infielders, and of course there will be the guy who ends up as the starting second baseman.

So who will these three players be?

I'm thinking either: Murphy-Hu-Emaus, Murphy-Hu-Hernandez, or Murphy-Hu-Castillo.

If the Mets are determined to keep Emaus, it's not inconceivable that Hu ends up doing a Warren G. Harding thing, winning the starting job.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm renaming my band. We are no longer "Flesh for Lolich." We are now "Sources Familiar with the Mets Thinking."

[Frayed Knot]

"Sources familiar with the Mets thinking" never fails to crack me up.

That phrase gets a lot of work around draft time as the basis for speculation on early round picks, something which, as far as I can tell, could mean nothing more than someone opining about who'll they'll select based on previous years picks and trends. Hell, I could be cited as a source "familiar with Met thinking" based on that logic.

[TransMonk]

avi

(Where have I been?)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mike Puma of the Post is apparently now saying that the Mets might allow Luis Hernandez to bump Hu from the roster, and go with Murphy and Emaus as the reserve infielders.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Depending on how you look at it, this fun studylet from ESPN's Mark Simon using Pitch f/x data could indicate one of two things about Luis Hernandez: he's got some not-unachievable upside... or he's like Francoeur without the arm and PR skills.

This system gives Hernandez a chase rate of 47.5 percent.�meaning he swung at nearly half of the �slow� pitches thrown to him out of the strike zone. That�s not good. That�s how pitchers frequently finished him with two strikes. It explains why he has lots of strikeouts, but very few walks. A typical major league lefty hitter, in this same time span, had a chase rate of about 30 to 35 percent (depending on if you wish to include pitchers) against those pitches. If we rated every player�s chase rate against these pitches, Hernandez would be at the bottom of the list, a significant contrast to Luis Castillo, who is among the best at laying off such pitches.

[TransMonk]

Per Metsblog: Justin Turner has been optioned to AAA.

[smg58]

When you have options, you can't leave any room for doubt. Neither Turner nor the Mets will be hurt by his getting full-time work at Buffalo.

[Guest Edgy DC]

So it looks like three infielders from among Murphy, Emaus, Hu, and Hernandez, with Murphy the only one effectively having options.

I'd try to carry the first three.

[Ceetar]

smg58 wrote: When you have options, you can't leave any room for doubt. Neither Turner nor the Mets will be hurt by his getting full-time work at Buffalo.

Interesting though, I'd almost consider trying to get Turner some more SS time and being a candidate to replace Hu (or Murph) as a more versatile utility guy.

but this is all just temporary too, things change pretty fast when you don't, or do, perform.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Nice write-up on Emaus by Brian Costa --

Mets Fans, Meet Brad Emaus
With Plate Discipline, No-Name Rookie Appears to Have Won Second-Base Job
LINK

JUPITER, Fla.�For a professional athlete, Brad Emaus is a little bit doughy. He is barely 6 feet tall. He runs at a plodding pace. He doesn't hit for much power. And his next highlight-reel defensive play will be his first. "He's not glamorous to look at," said J.P. Ricciardi, the Mets' head of pro scouting. Mets second baseman Brad Emaus turns a double play against the Braves in a March 5 exhibition game. What Emaus does well is this: He gets on base. He works the count. He wears pitchers down. He avoids fundamental mistakes. He does these things as well as anyone on the Mets. And for that, he will likely be their starting second baseman. The release of Luis Castillo last week left Emaus, 24, as the front-runner for the job. And the Mets' decision to send Justin Turner to minor-league camp Wednesday makes it all but official: Emaus will start at second. Daniel Murphy will be the utility infielder. No one with the Mets is saying that publicly just yet. But no one is denying it, either. General manager Sandy Alderson pointed to the fact that Emaus started at second in Wednesday's exhibition game against the St. Louis Cardinals, while Murphy started at third. "I think the lineup card is probably as revealing as anything I can say," Alderson said. When Emaus makes his major-league debut on April 1, he will be among the most anonymous starting position players in baseball. He was assigned No. 68 for his uniform this spring, the kind of high number usually reserved for players with no shot of making the team (he plans to wear No. 4 once the regular season starts). His initial locker location put him next to players who have long since been sent back to the minors. But Emaus is not a surprise pick for the job. And his selection is indicative of the traits that Alderson and his staff will value as they look to remake the roster in the years ahead. The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Emaus in the 11th round in 2007, when Ricciardi was their general manager. But because he had yet to be called up to the majors, he became eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December. At Ricciardi's urging, the Mets took him. "I think the appealing thing for us is, he sees a lot of pitches," Ricciardi said. "As we go forward, that's the type of team we'd like to have, guys that do get on base, guys that grind out walks." In 87 games with Triple-A Las Vegas last season, Emaus reached base in 39.5% of his plate appearances, the 10th-highest mark in the Pacific Coast League. He walked just as often as he struck out. And while there are no statistics available on how many pitches he saw per plate appearance, his plate discipline is an asset the Mets need. The Mets swung at 31% of all pitches outside the strike zone in 2010, according to FanGraphs.com, the sixth-highest mark in baseball. It was no coincidence that their team on-base percentage (.314) ranked just 25th in the majors. Emaus may not be a prodigious hitter, but he takes pride in making pitchers work for outs. "It's an advantage to our entire offense and defense in the sense that, the more pitches you get out of that guy, the more quickly he's going to get out of the game," Emaus said. "He might get tired or throw some pitches over the plate to the other guys." The only concern with Emaus is that, for as much as the Mets like his track record in the minors, he hasn't done much to impress them this spring. Alderson and Ricciardi may be wary of making too much of small sample sizes, but Collins wants to see Emaus' ability for himself. After going 0 for 3 Wednesday against the Cardinals, Emaus is batting just .216 this spring (8 for 37), though he also has six walks. He will start at second in the majority of the Mets' seven remaining spring games. But Collins said he might not name an Opening Day starter until the last day or two of camp. "I want to see, when he's out there every day, is he going to be able to make the adjustments?" Collins said. "How's he going to handle it when their pitching starts to make adjustments to him? I want to see what kind of a defender he's going to be." Collins may not be enamored with Emaus, but he has little choice. Murphy's defense is still a work in progress, to put it politely. And though Collins threw a minor-leaguer named Luis Hernandez into the mix a couple weeks ago, the front office doesn't view him as a serious candidate. Perhaps the most revealing comment Wednesday came from Turner, who said as he cleared out his locker in Port St. Lucie, "I'm sure Brad is feeling pretty good about himself right now."

[MFS62]

Emaus hasn't exactly blown the other second base candidates out of the water. I'm wondering if settling in on him as the second baseman isn't just a case of JP and his Toronto guys trying to prove that they are just as good talent evaluators as Omar was supposed to have been.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Keeping a guy who isn't any good doesn't prove that you're a great talent evaluator.

I don't think there's an ulterior motive here. I think they like his potential, and want to keep him.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think what we fail to realize is that the evaluating going on in spring training isn't limited to just the 32 plate appearances and 45 innings of defense we're privy to. If it were, then Murphy would be winning this competition running away.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

It's not about who's wearing the uni on Opening Day, most likely; it's resource conservation. If they're not handing the job to Murphy outright-- and it doesn't seem they are-- then it's a question of having Turner and Emaus in the organization or just Turner. If there's a difference between Turner and Emaus, it apparently isn't big enough to mitigate losing Emaus (or, say, Evans).