Expectations of Eleven: Mike Pelfrey

[Edgy MD]

Michael Alan Pelfrey. (Everybody's an Alan.)



Pos: SP; BR-TR.

Born: January 14, 1984 in Wright Patterson AFB, OH. (He'll be 27 in 2011.)

Birth Context Karma: Not much really, Metwise. Five days later they shored up the 1986 shortstop situation by siging Rafael Santana and drafting Kevin Elster on the same day. Ten days later, Apple introduced the Macintosh.

Acquired: Drafted by Mets in the 1st round (ninth overall pick) of the 2005 amateur draft, and signed January 10, 2006. Filthy little holdout.

W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB	BB-Ref WAR	FG WAR
15	9	.625	3.66	34	33	1	0	0	1	204	213	88	83	12	68	5	113	6	1	1	870	107	1.377	9.4	0.5	3	5	1.66	2.3 (-0.2 off)	2.9

Number: 34.

Wife: Angela.

Nickname: Big Pelf.

Namesakes:


Best Day in 2010: Would you believe this big animal is still looking for his first complete game shutout? Well it's true! He still has only two career complete games, both from 2008. That's what you get working under save addicts like Willie and Jerry. His best day was shutting out the Phils for seven innings on May 27, finishing a three-game sweep of the Phils, with all three games going scoreless for the future division champs.

Last Word: Mike is expecting to start on opening day, as well as his second child.

What do you expect of Mike Pelfrey in 2011?

[Theoldmole]

A complete game shutout.

[Ceetar]

his second child is no longer expected, but actively burping.

I expect his line to look similar.(probably minus the save)

I expect his peak and valley of last year to not be as extreme, but still likely balance each other out.

the CG shutout will come. I know warthen is still here but hopefully Collins lets him go further. Pelfrey is perfect for this team. He's that "workhorse" pitcher that some speculate the Mets need. We've got him, and he's actually good, unlikely the Millwoods out there.

so, 220IP, 3 CG, 1 SHO, 7HR, 3.50 ERA, 120 Ks, 65 BBs. 2.8 WAR. 17 wins, 7 losses.

[Edgy MD]

I don't know that he's actually good. I have trouble trusting guys who throw that hard and don't K people. They can't economize their pitches.

He looked like he had turned a corner in 2008 also, but was pretty bad in 2009.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: I don't know that he's actually good. I have trouble trusting guys who throw that hard and don't K people. They can't economize their pitches. He looked like he had turned a corner in 2008 also, but was pretty bad in 2009.

He definitely benefits from the good defense. we'll see if Murphy at second hurts his GIDP rate any. He gives up a lot of hits, but he gives up very little in the way of home runs, so that limits the big inning and the big damage. It's very easy to think that 2009 was in large part to Alex Cora.

[Edgy MD]

Maybe it's tempting but not easy. It's not like the Mets were tight in the middle infield when he started 10-1 last season.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Maybe it's tempting but not easy. It's not like the Mets were tight in the middle infield when he started 10-1 last season.

Actually, I'd say the first month or two is when the defense up the middle was the best.

[Edgy MD]

Not when it's generous mixes of Alex Cora and Luis Castillo trying not to play themselves into oblivon (and failing), Jose Reyes re-establishing himself after the better part of a year off and no spring training, and Ruben Tejada bouncing between positions.

Yikes, there was some Fernando Tatis in there also.

dWAR scores, according to baseball-reference.com:

Cora: -0.6
Castillo: -0.1
Reyes: -0.3
Tejada: 0.0

[G-Fafif]

I expect recurring frustration interrupted by sporadic elation -- or vice-versa.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

ERA in the mid-to-high 3s. A whole lot of innings, some prideful 8-inning sparklers, and heartburn-filled 3rd/4th innings. And moist fingers.

[smg58]

I think/hope he can duplicate last year.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: [ It's very easy to think that 2009 was in large part to Alex Cora.

Well then maybe Cora had a right to get on Pelfrey's ass for laughing in the locker room after a loss.

[metirish]

Pelfrey as closer in 2012 floated by Collins shot down by Alderson

Mike Pelfrey, Mets closer? This almost certainly will not happen, but it was a possibility within the past week, when some team officials suggested converting Pelfrey to that role next season. The discussions went far enough that Pelfrey was included in them. "Would you be willing to be the closer next year?" Terry Collins asked the pitcher, according to someone who was briefed on, but did not witness or participate in, the conversation. "Absolutely," Pelfrey responded. Approached with this information before Sunday's 6-2 loss to Milwaukee at Citi Field - another defeat defined by bullpen failure, and underscoring the team's need for relief help - Collins said he did not wish to comment on a private discussion with a player. Again: This is highly unlikely to happen. Sandy Alderson did not hatch the idea of making Pelfrey a closer, and is said to be averse to it. There are other solid arguments against the move, but the general manager's "no" vote is the only one worth listing, as it is probably definitive. Still, it is revealing on several levels that the discussion occurred at all, and it underscores several realities facing the Mets in the near future. First, it is likely that Pelfrey, despite a disappointing season and a salary that will climb to about $6 million, will return next season as a member of the rotation. The team needs pitching, and Pelfrey has long established an ability to remain on the field and overcome injuries (as in 2010, when he won 15 games for a fourth-place team, despite persistent pain caused by a strained rotator cuff and shoulder capsule). His ability to contribute innings carries significant value. But as Pelfrey himself has conceded many times, he did not become the ace that his team needed this year, after it lost Johan Santana to shoulder surgery. If Pelfrey had risen to that hope, no one would have broached the idea of moving him to the bullpen. Instead, his 6-10 record, and 4.61 ERA, led to questions about his role. The closing idea, though, was far more an indictment of the current bullpen than of Pelfrey. In the 26 games since July 25, Mets relievers have posted a 5.95 ERA. Sunday's mess was typical: R.A. Dickey allowed two runs in seven innings, and left for a pinch-hitter with the game tied 2-2. The bullpen's day began when Manny Acosta walked the leadoff batter in the eighth. Over the next two innings, Acosta, Jason Isringhausen and Pedro Beato combined to allow four runs, three of them earned. "We can't stop anybody," Collins said of the bullpen, before criticizing his own strategy. "I should have stayed with R.A., see if we can keep the game tied." The manager indicated that roster moves involving the bullpen could occur before September, but hardly sounded enthused about ordering from the current menu. "We've pretty much had everyone from Buffalo," Collins said. Next year's bullpen, which Alderson plans to address more aggressively than the rotation this winter, presents similar uncertainty. The talented Bobby Parnell has yet to prove he can close, and Beato, who was in the mix for that job after the team traded Francisco Rodriguez, will not receive those opportunities this season. "I think he's getting tired," Collins said of Beato. The lack of options led the team to briefly dream of Pelfrey - who, in a rare relief appearance in San Diego last Tuesday, stormed out of the bullpen with a 96 mph fastball - as a closer. That dream quickly died, but the issues that created it remain quite real. Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2011/08/21/2011-08-21_ra_dickey_again_gets_little_support_as_mets_fall_apart_late_in_62_loss_to_milwau.html#ixzz1VlY4vMfd

Pelfrey wouldn't be my first thought as closer but he'd be worth a shot, his stuff would seem to work well in short stints?

[RealityChuck]

The issue isn't his stuff, but the fact that he has had troubles handling pressure. When things start going bad for him, he presses. Not a quality you want in a closer.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It seems his real value is in the innings he eats up, but I don't see how his 200 or so innings are worth the $6 million he's expected to get in 2012. If the team is going to contend, you can't be satisfied with someone who's going to give you 200 less than satisfactory innings. And if they're not going to contend, I'd rather see them get the same 200 innings from three different young players (if that's what it takes) than from one guy who's even less likely to be a Met in 2013.

I think it's probably time to part ways with Pelfrey.

[smg58]

He's not worth $6M if he pitches like this. But he's pitched much better in the past, and a fifth-starter-by-committee is not likely to outperform a 4.50 ERA. Unless we can get a clear upgrade cheaply, I'm for giving him one more year.

[Guest attgig]

we should do these expectations based on expected playing time vs alphabetical. I lost steam on predictions by the letter f or so...

[ashie62]

I'd like to see Harvey Wheeler Mejia etal progress quickly so as to distance the Mets from Mike Pelfrey.

[smg58]

Ashie62 wrote: I'd like to see Harvey Wheeler Mejia etal progress quickly so as to distance the Mets from Mike Pelfrey.

I hear you, but I think that's a lot more realistic for 2013 than for 2012.

[Benjamin Grimm]

G-Fafif wrote: I expect recurring frustration interrupted by sporadic elation -- or vice-versa.

Not many people chimed in on this thread (I was surprised to see that I didn't say anything; I did try to post an expectation for every player) but G-Fafif seems like the winner here.