How many games will K-Rod finish next season?

[HahnSolo]

Was today his first non-save mopup finish this year (another 1-2-3 outing, to be fair)? I guess he was already warmed up in what would have been a save situation before Beltran's last bomb, so I won't go totally crazy on Terry here.

I will point out that Izzy again gets the "heavy lifting" as Batmags would say, getting out of a jam in the 8th.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Wasn't the jam Izzy's own creation too? I think we applaud Terry for not going to Rodriguez sooner.

And I'm totally on Team Let-It-Vest now, as a means of ruining the 'Pons.

[HahnSolo]

No you are right, I missed the 8th inning on the way home, I thought on the postgame they said Izzy came on with two men on. But a check of the box says he started the whole mess. So my bad.

I can't get on the let it vest bandwagon because it won't really ruin anything. Even if it vests the payroll will be much lower next year.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Agreed. I hear there's a bit of Cut-off-Your-Nose-to-Spite-Your-Face Disease going around. So you all be careful.

[batmagadanleadoff]

DATE	METS GAMES PLAYED	GAMES K-ROD FINISHED	ON PACE TO FINISH...*
4/1/11	1	0	0
4/3/11	3	0	0
4/6/11	5	1	32
4/8/11	7	1	23
4/14/11	13	3	37
4/17/11	16	4	40
4/24/11	22 (9-13)	6	44
4/26/11	23 (10-13)	7	49
4/27/11	24 (11-13)	8	54
5/1/11	28 (12-16)	8	46
5/3/11	29 (12-17)	8	45
5/6/11	32 (14-18)	10	50
5/7/11	33 (15-18)	11	54
5/9/11	35 (15-20)	11	50
5/10/11	36 (16-20)	12	54
5/12/11	37 (17-20)	13	=#000000]56

K'Rod's in the money when he's on the money and in the black when he's on the black.



(Mets revised odds of making the playoffs [crossout]74-1[/crossout] -- 56-1)


*Remainders are always lopped off and never rounded up to the nearest whole number.

[Benjamin Grimm]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: (Mets revised odds of making the playoffs [crossout]74-1[/crossout] -- 56-1)

WOOOOOOOOOOO!

[dgwphotography]

HahnSolo wrote: I can't get on the let it vest bandwagon because it won't really ruin anything. Even if it vests the payroll will be much lower next year.

I agree - I fear that not resigning Reyes will be the only result of letting the option vest.

[Guest Edgy DC]

It'd be a factor one way or the other. I'd stay far away from drawing a cause-effect conclusion.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: It'd be a factor one way or the other. I'd stay far away from drawing a cause-effect conclusion.

This is why I don't get worked up over it. I trust Sandy knows how much more valuable Reyes (etc) is than a closer, and if there is a cause-effect relationship here he'll prevent the vest.

[soupcan]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: And I'm totally on Team Let-It-Vest now, as a means of ruining the 'Pons.

Lunchables and I are on all of the same pages.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frankie K-Rod: Come on Down. You're the new contestant on Bust the Wilpons!"

[batmagadanleadoff]

Contestants: Here is your first round question. Which garment is worth more? (Not including the on the lam money stashed in the secret compartments sewn into their linings)

[dgwphotography]

soupcan wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: And I'm totally on Team Let-It-Vest now, as a means of ruining the 'Pons. Lunchables and I are on all of the same pages.

Don't get me wrong. I'm obviously all for anything that would get the Wilponzis out.

[Frayed Knot]

I'm having a hard time buying the idea that whatever the Mets do, or don't, pay for a closer in 2012 is going to be the make or break factor in whether they sign Jose Reyes for the next 6 or 7 seasons or whether the Wilpons are able to hold onto the team.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm only having fun with the idea of Jeff being hoisted by his own petard. Either way I've decided this countdown to 55 should be looked at as something fun not soemthing to dread.

[smg58]

The situation is something of a Catch-22, because barring an injury, Rodriguez will finish 55+ games for us if we're winning games at a good clip. The option won't vest if our winning percentage veers south of .450, but does anybody really want that?

[metirish]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm only having fun with the idea of Jeff being hoisted by his own petard. Either way I've decided this countdown to 55 should be looked at as something fun not soemthing to dread.

This , and I think that's is how this thread is going, if he keeps going the way he's going he could be an All Star selection. Jeffrey won't be chuffed about that.

[batmagadanleadoff]

DATE	METS GAMES PLAYED	GAMES K-ROD FINISHED	ON PACE TO FINISH...*
4/1/11	1	0	0
4/3/11	3	0	0
4/6/11	5	1	32
4/8/11	7	1	23
4/14/11	13	3	37
4/17/11	16	4	40
4/24/11	22 (9-13)	6	44
4/26/11	23 (10-13)	7	49
4/27/11	24 (11-13)	8	54
5/1/11	28 (12-16)	8	46
5/3/11	29 (12-17)	8	45
5/6/11	32 (14-18)	10	50
5/7/11	33 (15-18)	11	54
5/9/11	35 (15-20)	11	50
5/10/11	36 (16-20)	12	54
5/12/11	37 (17-20)	13	=#000000]56
5/13/11	38 (18-20)	14	59

After vulturing a win by blowing a save in his first appearance of the season, K-Rod has since succesfully converted his next 11 Save opportunities. With rivals for finish opportunities, Beato and Parnell, on the shelf, it's clear sailing for K-Rod in the immediate future. For now, K-Rod is on pace to collect that $17.5M option next season, and will remain on pace even if he doesn't finish any of the Mets next three games. Still, the next three games will only get K-Rod as far as May 17th, so there's plenty of season left for anything to happen. All this with a diminished fast ball that barely, and rarely, breaks 90 MPH.


*Remainders are always lopped off and never rounded up to the nearest whole number.

[batmagadanleadoff]

DATE	METS GAMES PLAYED	GAMES K-ROD FINISHED	ON PACE TO FINISH...*
4/1/11	1	0	0
4/3/11	3	0	0
4/6/11	5	1	32
4/8/11	7	1	23
4/14/11	13	3	37
4/17/11	16	4	40
4/24/11	22 (9-13)	6	44
4/26/11	23 (10-13)	7	49
4/27/11	24 (11-13)	8	54
5/1/11	28 (12-16)	8	46
5/3/11	29 (12-17)	8	45
5/6/11	32 (14-18)	10	50
5/7/11	33 (15-18)	11	54
5/9/11	35 (15-20)	11	50
5/10/11	36 (16-20)	12	54
5/12/11	37 (17-20)	13	=#000000]56
5/13/11	38 (18-20)	14	59
5/19/11	43 (21-22)	17	64

K-Rod now has a seven game cushion in his quest to vest: that is, he will remain on pace even if he doesn't finish any of the Mets next seven games.



*Remainders are always lopped off and never rounded up to the nearest whole number.

[TransMonk]

Through game 43, Frankie has 14 saves (one off the lead league) and is on pace to finish with 53, which would be a Mets single-season record (by 10).

[Guest Edgy DC]

The pattern seems to suggest that if Rodriguez exceeds the threshhold, it probably means good news for the Mets.

Expensive news, however.

[batmagadanleadoff]

DATE	METS GAMES PLAYED	GAMES K-ROD FINISHED	ON PACE TO FINISH...*
4/1/11	1 (0-1)	0	0
4/3/11	3 (2-1)	0	0
4/6/11	5 (3-2)	1	32
4/8/11	7 (3-4)	1	23
4/14/11	13 (4-9)	3	37
4/17/11	16 (5-11)	4	40
4/24/11	22 (9-13)	6	44
4/26/11	23 (10-13)	7	49
4/27/11	24 (11-13)	8	54
5/1/11	28 (12-16)	8	46
5/3/11	29 (12-17)	8	45
5/6/11	32 (14-18)	10	50
5/7/11	33 (15-18)	11	54
5/9/11	35 (15-20)	11	50
5/10/11	36 (16-20)	12	54
5/12/11	37 (17-20)	13	=#000000]56
5/13/11	38 (18-20)	14	59
5/19/11	43 (21-22)	17	64
5/20/11	44 (22-22)	18	66

Though his fast ball ain't what it used to be, K-Rod is still dominant. His breaking stuff is maddening to the opposition: the same pitch arrives with whiffle-ball-like movement, breaking North-South and East-West simultaneously. That, and a newly discovered two-seam sinker:

NEW YORK � Mets starter Mike Pelfrey needles his teammate, Francisco Rodriguez, about the ease of closing games. Rodriguez loathes it, but the saying holds true, considering the effectiveness of Rodriguez�s changeup, curveball, slider and his new two-seam sinker. �He�s got four plus pitches,� Pelfrey said after Rodriguez slammed the door against the Yankees tonight for his fifteenth save in his past 15 attempts. �He�s got to get three outs. It�s not hard.� At Yankee Stadium, Rodriguez made it look easy, continuing his magnificent stretch to open the season. He has not allowed an earned run in his last 19 innings. He provided the capper on an evening of bullpen excellence. After R.A. Dickey left, a trio of relievers collected nine consecutive outs. Mike O�Connor went first, followed by set-up man Jason Isringhausen. Then came Rodriguez, who began throwing the two-seamer during spring training. Because his fastball cuts naturally, he said, he wanted a pitch that could hit the corners. More coverage: �In this game, you�ve got to make adjustments,� Rodriguez said. �People are looking at scouting reports.� He added, �I�ve got hitters that I�ve faced so many times, and I throw a two-seamer, and they�re like �What was that?��

Mets odds of making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus: 28 1/2 to 1.

*Remainders are always lopped off and never rounded up to the nearest whole number.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Rafael Soriano hurt. Elbow issue, up to two months.

Hey! We got a guy who can help!

[batmagadanleadoff]

DATE	METS GAMES PLAYED	GAMES K-ROD FINISHED	ON PACE TO FINISH...*
4/1/11	1 (0-1)	0	0
4/3/11	3 (2-1)	0	0
4/6/11	5 (3-2)	1	32
4/8/11	7 (3-4)	1	23
4/14/11	13 (4-9)	3	37
4/17/11	16 (5-11)	4	40
4/24/11	22 (9-13)	6	44
4/26/11	23 (10-13)	7	49
4/27/11	24 (11-13)	8	54
5/1/11	28 (12-16)	8	46
5/3/11	29 (12-17)	8	45
5/6/11	32 (14-18)	10	50
5/7/11	33 (15-18)	11	54
5/9/11	35 (15-20)	11	50
5/10/11	36 (16-20)	12	54
5/12/11	37 (17-20)	13	=#000000]56
5/13/11	38 (18-20)	14	59
5/19/11	43 (21-22)	17	64
5/20/11	44 (22-22)	18	66
5/26/11	49 (23-26)	19	62

A round-up of recent K-Rod posts:

... Also did an interesting piece on trading Rodriguez (easier than you might think). That was interesting. If they can trade him, they should do it, even if it hurts their chances (such as they are) for 2011. Especially if that money can go towards securing Jose Reyes. I don't know who the "closer" would be. (Isringhausen? Beato? Buchholz?) I also don't know that it matters a whole lot, but everyone will think that it does.

Try this: If trading Rodriguez is about freeing up money to sign Reyes... ...and if freeing up money to sign Reyes means they get to keep him for the last two months of the season, whether they sign him during the season or not... ...and if the difference between Reyes and the shortstop who replaces him is greater than the difference between the pen with Rodriguez and the pen without, for whatever period remains after trading him... ...then trading Rodriguez doesn't diminish the Mets chances of winning this year. Thus begins our culture of innovation.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: The reason that K-Rod is willing to waive his $17.5M option, I believe, is because once he gets past all the bluster and all the posturing and tough-talk and the veiled threats that his agent and the Players Union are making about enforcing his option and filing a grievance if it should come to that ---team K-Rod must know that any intelligent team should be able to purposely prevent K-Rod's option from vesting easily, and without consequences. On the other hand, it's the Mets we're talking about here -- the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

frankie rodriguez has been excellent this year. in 23 innings, he's allowed all of two runs (though there could be inherited runners he's allowed to score). per fangraphs, he has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement. jose reyes has also been excellent this year. in fact, according to fangraphs, he's our best player, and is worth 2.5 wins above replacement. prorating these performances over an entire season, and assuming that these performance levels are maintained throughout the season, we have frankie at 2.0 wins above replacement and jose at 8.4 wins above replacement. so, in order for trading frankie to keep jose to work our poorly for the mets, presuming the mets are able to keep only one, the mets would have to replace him with a reliever or group of relievers who are collectively worth -1.9 wins per 48 games, or -6.4 wins over the course of an entire season. alternatively, the only way that trading jose reyes makes the mets a better team this year is if they replace him with a 6.4 win shortstop. by the way. jose reyes is the best shortstop in the majors this year with his 2.5 WAR, leading alexei ramirez and asrubal cabrera at 2.0 WAR. last year, the top shortstop was troy tulowitzki, at 6.6 WAR. yes, the gap between jose playing like he is for a full year and frankie pitching the way he is for a full year, is a smidge less than troy tulowitzki. if it comes down to choosing between the two players, is it even a choice? i mean, damn. last year, about 100 pitchers were worth at least 2 WAR, including kyle davies, paul maholm, and barry zito, and 144 batters, including jeff keppinger, jorge posada, and derrek lee. thus far this season, torii hunter, chipper jones and aaron rowand are all 0.6 WAR players. thus far this season, jon niese and jeremy guthrie are 0.6 WAR pitchers. that is how much frankie rodriguez is worth. i think we can get much more in return than a chipper jones '11, or a barry zito '10. i don't think we're trading reyes for a '10 tulo.

Well, I think some depends on the pen. While you're theoretically replacing Frankie with Beato or likely Izzy if he's still got his arm on, you're actually taking 20 or so innings that he would've pitched, and given them to someone like Igarashi who'd be promoted to take the spot on the roster. Those innings wouldn't be in the 9th, but would they necessarily be lower leverage? As with most things, I'm okay with that idea if they reassign his money to something valuable like Reyes. If they turn around and sign some B closer for 65-70% of the effectiveness of K-Rod, I'd just as soon the Mets try to extend Frankie themselves. If they kept him at his current rate, the difference actually ends up being what Reyes would likely get as a raise. There are a lot of facets to this though. Trading him is actually better than avoiding the vest, as they save the $3.5 million buy out. The Mets bullpen has been pretty damn good lately, and while you probably don't lose much having Izzy close, the overall depth of the bullpen does decrease, and if you had to pick the 'weakest' part of the Mets as a whole, it just might be the rotation. But if you have confidence in the bullpen, you can have a quicker hook on the starters. Then again, maybe the Mets acquire someone, Pelfrey and Niese pitch like they do at their heights last year, and Santana returns and the starters actually look better. Very complicated decision for Alderson, and there isn't an obvious 'right answer' as it all depends on the package in return, how they're going to use their money, and hte payroll next year.

I'll take Jeremy Guthrie for Rodriguez, is that what you're asking?

I really think everything is going to work out now , K-Rod will be back , in fact he'll waive the clause and sign a longer deal to say a Mets player ,news on Reyes extension should be coming soon... stop being Debbie Downers guys.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Am I reading the box score correctly? Did the Mets really let K-Rod finish this lost cause of a game? I guess that Einhorn's 200 million is burning a hole in Freddie's pocket. Yes. It certainly suggests that the Mets aren't worried about it, so why should we be? bingo Me? Worried? Au contraire.

*Remainders are always lopped off and never rounded up to the nearest whole number.

[Elster88]

Bump

[Guest Edgy DC]

Maybe kharma can be restored and Nolan Ryan can save the Mets from themselves.

[batmagadanleadoff]

DATE	METS GAMES PLAYED	GAMES K-ROD FINISHED	ON PACE TO FINISH...*
4/1/11	1 (0-1)	0	0
4/3/11	3 (2-1)	0	0
4/6/11	5 (3-2)	1	32
4/8/11	7 (3-4)	1	23
4/14/11	13 (4-9)	3	37
4/17/11	16 (5-11)	4	40
4/24/11	22 (9-13)	6	44
4/26/11	23 (10-13)	7	49
4/27/11	24 (11-13)	8	54
5/1/11	28 (12-16)	8	46
5/3/11	29 (12-17)	8	45
5/6/11	32 (14-18)	10	50
5/7/11	33 (15-18)	11	54
5/9/11	35 (15-20)	11	50
5/10/11	36 (16-20)	12	54
5/12/11	37 (17-20)	13	=#000000]56
5/13/11	38 (18-20)	14	59
5/19/11	43 (21-22)	17	64
5/20/11	44 (22-22)	18	66
5/26/11	49 (23-26)	19	62
6/26/11	78 (39-39)	28	58

*Remainders are always lopped off and never rounded up to the nearest whole number.

[Benjamin Grimm]

A lot of buzz today that the Mets have offered Rodriguez to the Yankees, but that the Yankees interest is not strong.

All of the reports appear to trace back to a tweet from Bob Klapsich, so a few grains of salt may be in order.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

And a considerable amount of bitter tang, as well.

32 as of yesterday, BTW... leaving him on pace for 61.

[Guest attgig]

to update the table with your numbers...

batmagadanleadoff wrote: DATE METS GAMES PLAYED GAMES K-ROD FINISHED ON PACE TO FINISH...* 4/1/11 1 (0-1) 0 0 4/3/11 3 (2-1) 0 0 4/6/11 5 (3-2) 1 32 4/8/11 7 (3-4) 1 23 4/14/11 13 (4-9) 3 37 4/17/11 16 (5-11) 4 40 4/24/11 22 (9-13) 6 44 4/26/11 23 (10-13) 7 49 4/27/11 24 (11-13) 8 54 5/1/11 28 (12-16) 8 46 5/3/11 29 (12-17) 8 45 5/6/11 32 (14-18) 10 50 5/7/11 33 (15-18) 11 54 5/9/11 35 (15-20) 11 50 5/10/11 36 (16-20) 12 54 5/12/11 37 (17-20) 13 =#000000]56 5/13/11 38 (18-20) 14 59 5/19/11 43 (21-22) 17 64 5/20/11 44 (22-22) 18 66 5/26/11 49 (23-26) 19 62 6/26/11 78 (39-39) 28 58 7/4/11 85 (43-42) 32 61 *Remainders are always lopped off and never rounded up to the nearest whole number.