Houston TV station says Phils have deal in place for Oswalt

[Benjamin Grimm]

Report: Phillies have deal in place for Roy Oswalt Drew Silva Jul. 29, 2010, 12:44 AM ET Report: Phillies have deal in place for Roy Oswalt According to Mark Berman of FOX 26 in Houston, the Phillies and Astros have a deal in place involving Roy Oswalt and are waiting for the 32-year-old right-hander to decide whether he wants to waive his no-trade clause. Berman writes that the two sides "have agreed on the amount of money" that the Astros will eat from Oswalt's contract and the players that the Phillies will be sending to Houston. If the report is true and the deal is only pending Oswalt's approval, our guess is that he goes. The Astros are a lost franchise and currently reside in fifth place in the National League Central. They need him to take his hefty contract elsewhere, and he'd be wise to jump at the opportunity to play for a contender. Oswalt has a 3.42 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 120 strikeouts in 129 innings this season. He is owed about $5 million for the rest of this season, $16 million for 2011 and he also carries a $16 million option for 2012. He wants that option picked up by the team that acquires him and that may be causing the hold-up. Oswalt will be 34 at the start of the 2012 season and he turns 35 during it. His numbers haven't declined this season -- in fact, he's seen a bit of a resurgence -- but the Phillies probably don't want to pay for former Houston general manager Tim Purpura's mistakes. He made a whole lot of them during his short stay with the club.

[metirish]

For a resurgent team he's a nice addition, should make for a great race between the Phillies and the Braves.

[MFS62]

The Phillies already have $135+ Million locked up for next year:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tSSu2Qy8G9pTSsguHAbeu-A&output=html
You know what?
Nobody seems to mind that they will be adding Oswalt's salary.
My question is, will they also offer Werth a contract extension?

Later

[bmfc1]

Meanwhile, Joel Sherman says that the Mets won't get Ted Lily. Some teams improve, some teams are stagnant (that's not an endorsement of "Zambrano for Kazmir" but doing something to get a 5th starter).

[Frayed Knot]

Phils now adding the high-salary that they supposedly couldn't take on when they swapped out Lee in advance of adding Halladay. A cynic would say they just should have kept Lee all along but they claimed the high price and wanting to re-stock their system prevented that. Be interesting to see if this addition cost them more in prospects than what they got for Lee last winter.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Trading for another starter, a la Ted Lilly, would likely hurt more than it helps.

[metirish]

Edgy DC wrote: Trading for another starter, a la Ted Lilly, would likely hurt more than it helps.

I agree, for me he's not a difference maker , not on this Mets team at least. I don't know that there is any one player on the market that would make the difference.

[bmfc1]

Edgy DC wrote: Trading for another starter, a la Ted Lilly, would likely hurt more than it helps.

That's a reasonable position. And while he's not a "difference maker", he's an improvement (again, others might differ). I'd rather see Lily than Takahashi as a SP (I like him in the 'pen) or another Tim Redding/Brian Lawrence type.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think the young guy we get for F Rodriguez, whoever it is, is gonna be huge.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't see the point to the Mets getting Lilly either.

[bmfc1]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I think the young guy we get for F Rodriguez, whoever it is, is gonna be huge.

JCL: I was thinking that way, too. Tampa?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Oh, the Mets should do that, but won't in a million years.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Lilly's an improvment if we don't factor in the cost of bringing him to town.

If they're going to make a move, it's got to be for offense.

[bmfc1]

Edgy DC wrote: If they're going to make a move, it's got to be for offense.

A worthwhile thought but Howie recently talked about how the Mets can't improve the offense because they're locked in, perhaps unwillingly, at each position. E.g., I'd love to get more offense at 2d but they can't move Castillo. They certainly could use more offense in LF but they're paying Bay a zillion dollars to do that. Is Omar creative enough to swing a deal for Prince Fielder (and would you be upset to move Ike)?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Edgy DC wrote: If they're going to make a move, it's got to be for offense.

At what position, though? I think the most upgradable positions are second base, catcher, and first base. (Not that I'd give up on Davis, but letting him take a back seat to an Adam Dunn for a few months might be one way to juice the offense for the remainder of 2010.)

There's outfield, too, if it looks like Bay is going to be down for a while, but that's a hard call to make between now and Saturday.

[Guest Edgy DC]

bmfc1 wrote: Edgy DC wrote: If they're going to make a move, it's got to be for offense. A worthwhile thought but Howie recently talked about how the Mets can't improve the offense because they're locked in, perhaps unwillingly, at each position. E.g., I'd love to get more offense at 2d but they can't move Castillo. They certainly could use more offense in LF but they're paying Bay a zillion dollars to do that. Is Omar creative enough to swing a deal for Prince Fielder (and would you be upset to move Ike)?

1) Howie doesn't know everything.
2) They're certianly not locked in at second, catcher, or first.
3) They're a lot less locked in in left with Bay dazzled.
4) Positions can open up as part of the trade package --- as you say, giving up Ike in a Prince Fielder deal. (I'm upset to move anybody. I hate trades.)

Is Omar creative enough? I don't see where that's an issue. He packaged his young slugging firstbaseman when he traded for Delgado. It's not really lack of creativity that keeps a team from dealing, but liking what they've got more than what's being offered. I suppose it's possible to wheel and deal until you've swapped a paper clip for a house, but that sort of thing doesn't happen between now and the deadliine. He's certainly demonstrated that he's williing to do any sort of trade.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Oh, the Mets should do that, but won't in a million years.

I'd be the first person to show that goofy-eyed fat fuck to the door.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The press and everybody else would climb over each other to remind the Mets that not having a name-brand closer down the stretch in 2007 is what did them in and the organizaiton has been a joke, broke, and up in smoke ever since.

Never. In a million. Years.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: Lilly's an improvment if we don't factor in the cost of bringing him to town. If they're going to make a move, it's got to be for offense.

The cost of bringing him to town-- provided Omar doesn't overpay-- should be at least partially offset by the draft compensation he should bring next offseason (which could be type A, given how weak the SP market is for this offseason).

My problem with bringing him in is that, as AA's Eno Sarris points out, he may not even be an upgrade, really.

(FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching, deriving an expected-ERA-type number based on a pitcher's walks/strikeouts/home runs, essentially ERA assuming league-average defense/timing for every pitcher; xFIP= Expected FIP, or FIP that normalizes for wackiness with HR/FB rate)

Starting at the surface, Tak-san is pitching to a 4.25 FIP and 4.34 xFIP by striking out 8.11 per nine and walking 3.49 per nine. But those numbers include his time in the pen, so as a starter, he's got a 5.02 FIP and 4.72 xFIP while showing a 6.75 K/9 and 2.91 BB/9. He's been pretty luck neutral, too, as neither his BABIP (.312) nor strand rate (71.8%) are far from the league benchmarks in those categories (.300 and 70%). Those results shouldn't be too hard for Lilly to surpass - in a normal year, given his career 4.35 xFIP. This year, though, he's got a 4.55 xFIP (4.62 FIP) on the back of the worst strikeout rate of his career (6.55 K/9) despite his still-excellent control (2.10 BB/9, 2.81 BB/9 was his National League worst). So right now, the results don't show a clear enough upgrade to burn a prospect on, perhaps, but let's dig a little deeper... ... and look at their whiff rates. Lilly is getting his career lowest swinging strike percentage (7.6%), while Takahashi has a nicer number even as a starter (10.2%). The average this year is 8.4%, so we have one guy above the mean, and one guy below. Somewhat surprising actually.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The Second Spitter wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Oh, the Mets should do that, but won't in a million years. I'd be the first person to show that goofy-eyed fat fuck to the door.

That's complete bullshit, I'd be there way before you.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Oh, the Mets should do that, but won't in a million years. I'd be the first person to show that goofy-eyed fat fuck to the door. That's complete bullshit, I'd be there way before you.

Hey goofy-eyed fat fuck,

The door is this way: ---------------------------------->

See, I beat you.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Be funny if he got replaced in the pen by Brian Bruney.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

That would be as rich as a save-rule capitalizing junkballer who can't command his fastball.

[MFS62]

This is getting tough to follow, with lots of names being thrown around.

Which goofy-eyed fat fuck are you climbing all over yourselves to show to the door?

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: My problem with bringing him in is that,

I suspected drilling down would weaken the Lilly proposition. Thanks for that.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

MFS62 wrote: This is getting tough to follow, with lots of names being thrown around. Which goofy-eyed fat fuck are you climbing all over yourselves to show to the door? Later

The one that's getting paid $11.5M a year to blow saves.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The Second Spitter wrote: MFS62 wrote: This is getting tough to follow, with lots of names being thrown around. Which goofy-eyed fat fuck are you climbing all over yourselves to show to the door? Later The one that's getting paid $11.5M a year to blow saves.

$17.5M after next year! Aces!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Maybe we should just have him killed.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: This is getting tough to follow, with lots of names being thrown around. Which goofy-eyed fat fuck are you climbing all over yourselves to show to the door? Later The one that's getting paid $11.5M a year to blow saves. $17.5M after next year! Aces!

So you have: GEFF + Cashitto = $23.5M for 2011.

Give yourself a pat on the back for a job well done, Omar.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Was Frankie's deal for three years? Or four? (It's the "after next year" part that has me confused.) I thought his contract expired after 2011.