Weekly No-Hitter watch

[Frayed Knot]

Hamels thru 6 vs Padres - has walked 2

Of course the Phils haven't scored yet either so it's 0-0 bottom 6.

[Frayed Knot]

Adrian Gonzalez goes oppo w/one out in the 7th.
No-hitter gone, 1-0 Padres.

[Frayed Knot]

Scott Hairston follows that one up with one of his own only about 35 feet further.

[Gwreck]

Scott Hairston went yard too. Go Padres (tonight only).

[Fman99]

Padres win, Phillies lose. I approve.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I feel strongly that if you switched Howard and Gonzalez, Gonzalez would have won both Howard's and Rollins' MVPs. And deserved them more,* 'cause he plays better D than Howard, and dwarves Rollins' career years in offensive value with his average ones.

*Although still not as much as Wright in 2007.

Edited June 7, 2010 by Guest

[Ceetar]

Fman99 wrote: Padres win, Phillies lose. I approve.

Mets are only half a game behind the Phillies. Depending on how you feel about the Braves, this is excellent news. Division is ripe for the picking, and the Phillies haven't been hitting in way too long for what would was considered a "great" offense. Hamels ERA is good, just under 4, but he's 5-5 and mostly sucks.

[Gwreck]

Fielder's having a down year, so maybe Howard's the 4th best first baseman in the league now. He seems like a nice guy, and even ignoring the contract, he's still gotta be one of the most overrated players not named Jeter.

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: Fielder's having a down year, so maybe Howard's the 4th best first baseman in the league now. He seems like a nice guy, and even ignoring the contract, he's still gotta be one of the most overrated players not named Jeter.

Howard's really upping his game though. Year after year he gets better, works harder, and becomes more well-rounded. I don't know if he's the 'best' player out there, but if I _had_ to choose a Phillie to not hate, it'd be him.

Rollins is the more over-rated one.

[Gwreck]

Ceetar wrote: Howard's really upping his game though. Year after year he gets better

Ryan Howard OPS

2005 .924
2006 1.084
2007 .976
2008 .881
2009 .931
2010 .792

[Zvon]

I turned that on TV here just in time for the 6 inning mid game wrap.
The Phils booth said quite a few things about the game, but nary a word about the no-no.
When they showed the score during this I could see the big goose eggs all across the board.

Then the 7th, and the two homers.
Oh yea, I jinxed him baby.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Howard's really upping his game though. Year after year he gets better Ryan Howard OPS 2005 .924 2006 1.084 2007 .976 2008 .881 2009 .931 2010 .792

Well, that's not really fair. Ceetar did say Howard's becoming more-rounded. So let's look at his WAR:

[Ceetar]

Fine, it's a stretch. But the WAR stat is certainly not infallable, and even if Howard was to put up precisely the exact same quality year to year, his WAR would fluctuate. He'd be just as good, but would be less or more good than the replacement player.

He's seemingly upped his defense, although it appears he's taking less walks this year in exchange for more singles. He's also on pace for a career low in Ks and seemingly has stopped the vs LHP dropoff, being around his career average and actually getting some power hits off them.

So maybe he's not "getting better" each year, but he seems to be working hard to inprove some of the deficits in his game. He's obviously not going to be worth the contract, and I wasn't comparing him to the best players in the game, but he seems to be rounding out to be more than just a 1 dimensional slugging DH.

[Zvon]

Hey you minutia men.

Don't tell me that (if he don't get sadly derailed) Howard is not gonna crack over 550 and drive in boo-koo runs.
The only reason he's having a tough time this year is cause I put the whammy on the Phils.
I'm Whammyman!
I have the ability to jinx a team, but only once a decade.
Go Mets!

[Gwreck]

Ceetar wrote: even if Howard was to put up precisely the exact same quality year to year, his WAR would fluctuate.

What about his OPS? Why has that gone down year to year?

He's seemingly upped his defense

How do you know this?

although it appears he's taking less walks this year in exchange for more singles.

"In exchange for" (??)

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ceetar wrote: Fine, it's a stretch. But the WAR stat is certainly not infallable, and even if Howard was to put up precisely the exact same quality year to year, his WAR would fluctuate. He'd be just as good, but would be less or more good than the replacement player.

Fair point. But you probably wouldn't see 3-4 win fluctuations during ostensibly-healthy seasons simply due to the vagaries of UZR. Plus, if you're drawing a line of best fit on a plot of his seasonal WAR values (Fangraphs or B-R) or virtually any of his rate stats, the line would be heading down like a drunken Victorino in a truck stop mens' room.

Ceetar wrote: He's seemingly upped his defense...

I'm with G. Who says? Absolutely none of the metrics-- nor the Tangotiger fan-opinion surveys-- support this assertion.

Ceetar wrote: ... although it appears he's taking less walks this year in exchange for more singles. He's also on pace for a career low in Ks and seemingly has stopped the vs LHP dropoff, being around his career average and actually getting some power hits off them.

Really, though, he's cheating himself-- it's a bear market for walks, so selling off at this price for singles is nonsensical. Does this man not read the Journal?

Seriously, though, I don't know what that means. He's swinging a lot more, but he's not hitting as many singles as he's lost in the walks department, hence the diminished OBP so far this year. But really... it's most of a third of a season. SSS, bruvva.

Ceetar wrote: So maybe he's not "getting better" each year, but he seems to be working hard to inprove some of the deficits in his game. He's obviously not going to be worth the contract, and I wasn't comparing him to the best players in the game, but he seems to be rounding out to be more than just a 1 dimensional slugging DH.

Nah. He's just about that. He's just a pretty good one, and he's huge, to boot.

[Ceetar]

I just meant his walks are down but he has more hits than normal. He's certainly not having a good year so far though, no, excepting maybe the increased batting average depending on how you read into it. Is he pressing because the offense is slumping and as a result taking less walks but getting a couple more hits? I suppose I could look up swing stats, etc. But I don't really care.

I guess he's just appeared a little better defensively and I've heard analysts/personalities mention it. (I usually know better than to listen though..guess it just gibed with what I'd seen)

Bah, he's a Philly. I don't care. Maybe guys have just figured him out a bit? I've always wondered how big sluggers that can't hit lefties and strike out a ton like that continually do well. If you're a major league pitcher you should be able to exploit guys that have that big a weakness.

Hamels however, sucks. sucks sucks. I think I looked up his stats a couple of weeks ago and while his ERA was okay, the rest of the stuff didn't seem to be boding well for him having a good year. Can we get off Howard and just stick with the Phillies Suck angle?

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Zvon wrote: Hey you minutia men. Don't tell me that (if he don't get sadly derailed) Howard is not gonna crack over 550 and drive in boo-koo runs. The only reason he's having a tough time this year is cause I put the whammy on the Phils. I'm Whammyman! I have the ability to jinx a team, but only once a decade. Go Mets!

Oh, sweet! Now THERE'S a good skill to have!