Starting Pitcher for 2010

[Benjamin Grimm]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Danny Knobler steals Ed Price's thunder and reports Ben Sheets to the A's for 1 year, $8 mils.

Sheee-it.

I think we now have to hope that John Smoltz somehow made himself 15 years* younger over the winter.

*Ten would also be good. I'd also be happy with five.

[smg58]

There are enough options available to justify passing on beating $8M or more for a guy who missed all of last year.

[TransMonk]

IMO the options are dwindling. I think if the Reds were going to make a move with their pitchers they woulda by now.

Haven't heard any link between the Mets and Bedard or Wang.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I thought Krivsky being on board would grease the skids for a Reds deal, but little talk on that. Then again, Krivsky was an enemy to the media, he's a secretive guy.

[Ceetar]

Some secrecy would do this organization good.

I'm been suspecting a trade for a bit now. Omar's comment about Nieve just sounds like trying not to sound desperate, which could mean he's talking value about an opposing SP and how much the Mets would give up.

We'll see.

We'll also see about Garland, who I still feel may have been the best option all along.

[ashie62]

Centerfield wrote: Very disappointing. I wonder what the incentives clauses are like. You'd think the Mets could beat that $8 million figure, unless Sheets didn't want to come here at all. The Mets are so depressing. I'm going back to the Jets and Syracuse threads.

I saw 10 million guaranteed on CBS and an A's interest in Damon

On to Smoltz

[ashie62]

Smoltz is 42 years old with 102 innings total in 2009-09...Do the Mets want that?

To hear the mets were interested in Pineiro and failed pisses me off

[TransMonk]

Yeah, Smoltz' shoulder scares me more than his age. He had great numbers even in 2006-07 when he was 39 and 40. Even his 6 starts in 2008 before the shoulder injury were fine.

But he looked like dog poo in Boston last year and below average in St Louis.

[Valadius]

If Bedard can demonstrate that he's healthy, I'd grab him. He put up some scary strikeout numbers in Bal'mer, and if there's anything we could use more of it's strikeout pitchers.

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: Yeah, Smoltz' shoulder scares me more than his age. He had great numbers even in 2006-07 when he was 39 and 40. Even his 6 starts in 2008 before the shoulder injury were fine. But he looked like dog poo in Boston last year and below average in St Louis.

Ouch. I just remembered I saw Smoltz start a game last year at Yankee Stadium. Was there (for free) with my Uncle for the first game of that series, saw him get absolutely shelled. (Of course, Joba on the other side walked more guys than Ollie usually does but managed to strand most of them, also much like Ollie) Wasn't a real great game, I much preferred the other game I saw in that dump where John Lannan dominated them.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I just remembered I saw Smoltz start a game last year at Yankee Stadium. Was there (for free) with my Uncle for the first game of that series, saw him get absolutely shelled. (Of course, Joba on the other side walked more guys than Ollie usually does but managed to strand most of them, also much like Ollie) Wasn't a real great game, I much preferred the other game I saw in that dump where John Lannan dominated them.

I remember remarking on the cpf that day that I thought I'd witnessed the end of Smoltz's career. He had nothing.

I dunno. We did employ Livan Hernandez last year, and some nights, he was our best pitcher. Yeow.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Centerfield wrote: Very disappointing. I wonder what the incentives clauses are like. You'd think the Mets could beat that $8 million figure, unless Sheets didn't want to come here at all. The Mets are so depressing. I'm going back to the Jets and Syracuse threads.

This.

If they're in for 90 cents, they're in for the dollar... or should be. Hell, man, if we're 14 million under budget expectations, the team could have gone up to that. Worst-case scenario, you end up with the same damn staff you've got now... and he's off your payroll come October.

As it is, this team stands to be the guy at the end of a fantasy-draft auction who's got 40 dollars of a 200-buck budget left over. AWESOME! EVERYONE APPLAUD THE GUY WHO JUST SAVED 40 IMAGINARY DOLLARS!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Their current position seems to be that, among Niese and Nieve and Figueroa and whoever else, they should be able to find a decent fifth starter. And that's probably true. But the problem is, Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez are all question marks, and what the Mets really needed this winter was a number 2 starter who would slot behind Santana and ahead of those other guys. And it no longer looks like there's any hope of that happening.

[metirish]

And according to Rubin the Mets see Smoltz as a starter.

[TransMonk]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: ...what the Mets really needed this winter was a number 2 starter who would slot behind Santana and ahead of those other guys. And it no longer looks like there's any hope of that happening.

Yup, yup...that coupled with no significant upgrade at 1B or C makes this a pretty underwhemling off-season as it stands now.

Oh yeah, and Beltran's gonna miss time.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Their current position seems to be that, among Niese and Nieve and Figueroa and whoever else, they should be able to find a decent fifth starter. And that's probably true. But the problem is, Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez are all question marks, and what the Mets really needed this winter was a number 2 starter who would slot behind Santana and ahead of those other guys. And it no longer looks like there's any hope of that happening.

I think there was plenty of disagreement on that. I've always maintained they need a solid, consistant, healthy 5th person pitching in the rotation that could offset a question marks in the other three. Sheets is a question mark, even if he's got more upside. Garland seems to fit that, as do a couple of guys that may be available via trades. They've got a good offense and can win games. Perez, Pelfrey and Maine are all capable of throwing up a "#2" performance during any start. The idea is to minimize the weak performances or the 6th choices and help rest the bullpen. A #2 was never readily available for anything reasonable, unless you count too many prospects for Halladay and tying up 40-50 million in two pitchers.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

From the Post:

Free-agent starter Ben Sheets has signed with the A's for one year, $10 million. Mets GM Omar Minaya planned on talking to Sheets� agent today, along with several other starters, sources told The Post. Sheets� signing means the Mets will now concentrate on free agents Jon Garland, John Smoltz and Jarrod Washburn.

And man... you don't sign a "#5 guy." You end up with a guy who happens to be the fifth guy in your rotation, and the more durable he is the better... because he usually offers little else. If someone is described as a "back-of-rotation starter" by a guy in baseball, the baseball guy saying it is almost always putting an UPPER limit on the player's potential, not saying "HERE's a guy you want-- given your choice of other, potentially better players-- to fill in the back of the rotation."

Garland has some value to a major-league team... mainly, to a contender that is looking for rotation backfill, or a team that-- basically-- is killing time and innings. But if you're putting together a team and fancy yourself a contender (or potential contender), and you have holes/question marks at spots 2-5, you don't sign a "5" to solidify the positions above that. A "solid #5" does NOTHING to alleviate questions in the rotation above him. NOTHING. If you're in said role, and you do aim at improving your rotation, you sign guys who can bump those guys down to slots where you aren't depending on them as much. That's how you improve.

Or, y'know, you cross your fingers.

[Ceetar]

the numbers are silly. and Garland is better than the typical 5th guy on most staffs.

I was using 5 as in, 5th, as in the Mets ave 4 guys right now and need another. Yes, those other guys are question marks, but they're also all capable of giving you a typical top of the rotation start at any given moment. So with an Ace at the front and an anchor like Garland in the back, if you can maximize the flashes of brilliance from the other three while minimizing Perez's 2.2 9BB outings, you're in good shape.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, yeah, if everything goes right the Mets will win 110 games.

But I think that counting on three disappointing pitchers to all bounce back is overly optimistic. Right now the Mets look like an 80-win team to me, and that's mainly because of Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez.

[metirish]

Agree with Grim on this , and it's not like those three were brilliant in 08 either....for me if it's the likes of Garland and Smoltz for several million on a one year deal then I just don't see what they have over what we already have in guys like Figgy.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The equation changed drastically with Beltran out and a diminishing number of free agents. Given the cross-the-fingers roster-build O's put together/preserved, if the Mets indeed have 15-20 million dollars that they could spend, then NOT spending an extra 1-5 million dollars to secure the rare commodity-- volatile though it may be-- that is a significant step up from all other available commodity options isn't just silly, it's LUDICROUS. (As far as financial risk, this isn't Castillo's contract... this is a ONE YEAR DEAL. Perform, don't perform, get injured, squirt bleach on reporters... he's gone at year's end.)


The Mets have "4 guys." That's about accurate. Three of them are coming off injury, and only one of them-- speaking frankly-- has been an above-average major-league starter (taking into account both performance and durability) over the course of his career. The Mets may have an average/above-average rotation if everything goes right. You don't normally want to plan for an 'if-everything-goes-right' scenario... but, hell, if you do, you want to raise that ceiling as much as possible. ESPECIALLY if you have the competitive advantage of the 2nd-or-3rd fattest wallet in your particular field.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Guest

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't expect all three to bounce back. I expect one to do significantly better, one to do a little better and one to spend the year frustrated by injury or failure.

[batmagadanleadoff]

What's the point in worrying about whether this pitcher's a #2 guy or that one's a #4 or maybe they're three of #5 and and two of #3? And if your supposed #5 is supposed to offset the shortcomings of your #3 pitcher, than maybe your 5 is really a three and your three a five.

The Mets need good pitchers. They should get good pitchers and hope that the ones they already have are good.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: I don't expect all three to bounce back. I expect one to do significantly better, one to do a little better and one to spend the year frustrated by injury or failure.

That seems reasonable, and that's roughly what I'm expecting as well. A little above .500 combined for all three of them. I figure if you factor in a QS guy like Garland where you have a chance to win every one of his, and Santana's, starts you are in good shape, especially given the offense is good. And it's not like the Mets will need 98 games to make the playoffs this year, although you never know.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Given that one of its top two cogs is out until at least May (and likely longer), and that C and 1B and (potentially) RF are-- relative to league-average-- offensive black holes, how good do you expect this offense to be, exactly?

[ashie62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The equation changed drastically with Beltran out and a diminishing number of free agents. Given the cross-the-fingers roster-build O's put together/preserved, if the Mets indeed have 15-20 million dollars that they could spend, then NOT spending an extra 1-5 million dollars to secure the rare commodity-- volatile though it may be-- that is a significant step up from all other available commodity options isn't just silly, it's LUDICROUS. (As far as financial risk, this isn't Castillo's contract... this is a ONE YEAR DEAL. Perform, don't perform, get injured, squirt bleach on reporters... he's gone at year's end.) The Mets have "4 guys." That's about accurate. Three of them are coming off injury, and only one of them-- speaking frankly-- has been an above-average major-league starter (taking into account both performance and durability) over the course of his career. The Mets may have an average/above-average rotation if everything goes right. You don't normally want to plan for an 'if-everything-goes-right' scenario... but, hell, if you do, you want to raise that ceiling as much as possible. ESPECIALLY if you have the competitive advantage of the 2nd-or-3rd fattest wallet in your particular field.

maybe some kid stole the wallet at recess..Mets playing the whole off-season cheap

[Guest Number 6]

Whaddaya know... and Garland is the next pitcher off the board.

[TransMonk]

We're fucked.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Given that one of its top two cogs is out until at least May (and likely longer), and that C and 1B and (potentially) RF are-- relative to league-average-- offensive black holes, how good do you expect this offense to be, exactly?

Actually, I think he's out until around May 1st, probably sooner. But not much to say on that right now.

This offense is the same offense that led the league in runs scored in 2008 and was still somehow near the top in getting on base last year. It's a good offense. Francoeur will probably play at least 'around' where Church did, Bay replaces Delgado's power and Murphy will outdo whatever collection of junk we ran out in LF in the past. Do you really think whatever C mess we throw out there can be much worse than what Schneider's given us?

I'm disappointed that things haven't fallen into place with a SP, and hopefully Omar does come through with a trade for another pitcher, but between injury-prone guys, overpaid guys, guys that wanted to stay on the west coast..there hasn't been a lot of options.

Things broke badly last year, who knows, maybe we catch some breaks this year. Maybe not signing another pitcher causes Niese to get a shot and he sparks Gooden comparisons. Who knows.

[ashie62]

going to war with

Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Jon Niese

Oye