Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus

[Gwreck]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: So even though the Mets, at the moment, anyway, don't look too likely to outplay the hot Phillies the rest of the way

Eh.

"Hot" is as good as tomorrow's opponent.

The Mets play the Nationals, from whom they've taken the last 5 games from, and are 10-4 against this year. I see them easily picking up anywhere from .5 to 1.5 games in the first half of this week alone.

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              83   66   .545   90.1   71.9   56.51660   16.83896   73.35555       -7.06575  -4.91233
Phillies          83   67   .528   89.7   72.3   43.26255   21.14525   64.40781        5.07811  29.74335
Brewers           83   67   .531   89.4   72.6     .44187   53.08477   53.52663        4.81292 -26.90453
Astros            80   69   .481   86.9   75.1     .00127    7.61744    7.61871       -3.09947   4.82995

Did yesterday's loss hurt? YES! Their overall playoff chances drop by another 7%; Wild Card goes up by 2 while the Division Championship drops by 9.

Houston's loss only cost them 3 points, but they only had 10.7 at the start of yesterday's action.

Mets NHOP is now at 52% (13 happy outcomes out of 25 games). That's not a good number, needless to say. (It applies to both the Phils and the Brewers.) The magic number over the Phillies and Brewers remains at 13. If they don't reduce it today, then tomorrow morning they'll no longer even have a magic number.

The Mets magic number over the Astros is 11 and the NHOP for eliminating Houston's threat to the Mets, such as it is, is 42.3% (11 out of 26).

Good stuff needs to start happening, and soon.

[metirish]

No easy task but winning the next three games here would be sweet and taking two of three at Atlanta would set us up nicely.

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          84   67   .531   90.2   71.8   61.48193   18.73592   80.21785       15.81004  53.49517
Mets              83   67   .542   89.5   72.5   38.19783   26.05489   64.25272       -9.10283 -22.50156
Brewers           83   68   .532   89.0   73.0     .10815   49.02204   49.13020       -4.39643 -24.07460
Astros            80   70   .478   86.4   75.6     .00010    5.31989    5.31999       -2.29872  -0.04247

As the unhappy outcomes keep on coming, the Mets NHOP for the division title continues to rise. It's now at 56.5%. (13 out of 23) The Mets no longer have a magic number for the division title; instead they have a tragic number of 12.

Not all is bleak, however. At least, not yet. The Mets are the current wild card leader, with a magic number of 12 and their NHOP relative to Milwaukee is 52.2% (12 out of 23).

The Astros continue to be less of a threat. The Mets magic number to eliminate Houston is 10. NHOP for the Astros is 41.7%, (10 out of 24).

Prediction: We'll soon hear about the results of a Mets/Brewers coin toss.

Yesterday's action, not surprisingly, helped the Phillies a lot, giving them 15.8 more playoff points. And look at that 7-day gain: 53.49 per cent! Mets drop 9.1 points and the Brewers drop 4.4. The Phillies are now the most likely division champ, and the Brewers are the most likely Wild Card, but overall, the Mets still have better playoff chances than the Brewers do.

As the number of remaining games continues to shrink, a single day's action can cause more dramatic swings in the odds. If everything goes right today (it can happen, you know) and the Mets, Braves, and Cubs all win, things would look quite a bit brighter tomorrow.

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          85   67   .534   90.8   71.2   63.65657   17.94059   81.59715        1.37930  65.07085
Mets              84   67   .543   89.9   72.1   36.07547   26.57932   62.65479       -1.59793 -29.39416
Brewers           84   68   .535   89.6   72.4     .18905   53.62267   53.81172        4.68152 -26.93066
Astros            80   71   .472   85.8   76.2     .00000    1.32076    1.32076       -3.99923  -4.64298

This doesn't seem fair: On a day when the Mets, Phillies, and Brewers all win, only the Mets see their playoff odds drop. This seems to be because the Phillies shaved more points off the Mets first place odds than the Mets gained from the Brewers. But Milwaukee increased their Wild Card odds because the Card is becoming less likely to end up in Philadelphia.

Astros continue to decline. Another day or two like this and I'll remove them from these updates.

Magic Tragic Number update: Mets magic number for the Wild Card is 11. Tragic number for the NL East title is also 11.

NHOP: Mets/Phillies: 57.1% (12 necessary happy outcomes in 21 games). Mets/Brewers: 52.4% (11 of 21)

If the season were to end with the standings as they are, the Mets would play the Dodgers in the NLDS while the Phillies would take on the Cubs. Home field advantages would go to Los Angeles and Chicago.

Teams with playoff odds between 0 and 1 are Toronto (.02901), Yankees (.02069), Florida (.59708), St. Louis (.03878) and Colorado, at .00018 appears poised to be the next team eliminated.

[Frayed Knot]

Remember also that these odds take the future schedule into consideration, so that
every game we erase off the sked now makes those four against the Cubs next week a larger
portion of the overall remainder.
I'm sure that has at least a bit to do with it - although I doubt their model takes into
consideration what effect an early Chicago clinching would have on the game-to-game odds
in that series.

[TransMonk]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: < If the season were to end with the standings as they are, the Mets would play the Dodgers in the NLDS while the Phillies would take on the Cubs. Home field advantages would go to Los Angeles and Chicago.

I'm pretty sure if the season ended today we would play the NLDS vs. the Cubs since we would be the wild card and the Cubs have the best record.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think he's adjusting for the loss-column tie.

[TransMonk]

Ah...I see, now. Makes sense.

[HahnSolo]

="Benjamin Grimm"]If the season were to end with the standings as they are, the Mets would play the Dodgers in the NLDS while the Phillies would take on the Cubs. Home field advantages would go to Los Angeles and Chicago.

Wouldn't the Mets (or whoever the East champ is) have home field by virtue of better record than LA?

[Benjamin Grimm]

No, Monk is right, I screwed up. The Mets would play the Cubs and the Phillies would play the Dodgers.

Home-field would go to Chicago and Philadelphia.

[Gwreck]

Even so, there's no scenario that would give LA homefield advantage.

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          86   67   .535   91.2   70.8   65.70010   23.14596   88.84606        7.24891  66.21829
Mets              85   67   .544   90.3   71.7   34.09700   38.54137   72.63837        9.98358 -17.55688
Brewers           84   69   .535   89.2   72.8     .02105   37.27627   37.29732      -16.51440 -36.93337
Marlins           80   72   .496   84.9   77.1     .20290     .51727     .72017         .12309    .60574
Astros            80   72   .468   85.4   76.6     .00000     .44620     .44620       -0.87456  -8.89261

Yesterday was one of the better days that the Mets have had in a while with a win over the Nationals and a heart-breaking loss that the Brewers suffered to the Cubs. The day was only marred by yet another win by the Phillies, their seventh in a row.

The Mets wild card lead expands to 1.5 games, and their deficit to the Phillies remains at a half game.

Mets Tragic Number for the NL East: 10
Mets Magic Number for the Wild Card: 9

Mets NHOP with the Phillies: 57.9% (11 out of 19)
Mets NHOP with the Brewers: 47.4% (9 out of 19)

The Astros continue to fade away. If they don't gain ground in today's action, I expect that this will be the last time they'll be listed in these updates.

Meanwhile, the Marlins pop back in to the picture. Their record is the same as Houston's, but BP has their odds a bit higher. Let's hope this inspires them to smack the Phillies around a bit this weekend.

Mets magic number over both Houston and Florida, who have identical records: 6
Mets NHOP with Florida and Houston: 30% each. (6 happy outcomes in 20 games.)

This weekend the three teams we care most about are all on the road: Mets in Atlanta, Phillies in Miami, and the Brewers will be in Cincinnati. And the team that we're losing interest in, the Astros, is also on the road, in Pittsburgh.

In other news from around the major leagues, the Dodgers now have playoff odds of 97.80655%, and the Diamondbacks have dropped all the way down to 2.19345%. Both numbers are NL West odds; they're both at 0 for the Wild Card.

In the AL East, as we've known for a while, the Rays and Red Sox are both extremely likely to make the playoffs, but the identity of the division champ is still to be determined. The Rays are currently at 72.75650% and the Red Sox at 27.24350%.

And there's only one remaining division race that's still competitive that doesn't have the Wild Card berth as a safety cushion. That's in the AL Central, where the White Sox have a 77.89580% for the division and the Twins are at 22.10420%.

[HahnSolo]

I guess I just don't understand how they calculate their odds. The Mets and Phils have the same number of losses with the Phils having played one more game.

Why are the odds almost 2-1 in favor of Philly winning the division? Throw in the fact that in a tie, the Mets would win (assuming Mil. is out of it).

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think part of it is that the Phillies have a softer schedule. (Remember, 4 of the Mets remaining 10 games are against the Cubs.)

Also, Baseball Prospectus doesn't do tie-breakers. If the Mets end up tied with the Phillies, they give half the points to the Mets and half to the Phillies, rather than all points to the Mets.

Here's how they explain it:

]Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              86   67   .547   90.9   71.1   51.78453   35.69591   87.48045       14.84209  -2.75969
Phillies          86   68   .533   90.7   71.3   47.96093   39.43007   87.39101       -1.45506  64.23895
Marlins           81   72   .498   85.4   76.6     .25453     .86703    1.12156         .40139    .97577
Brewers           84   70   .530   88.6   73.4     .00535   23.11895   23.12430      -14.17302 -52.06451
Astros            81   72   .468   85.8   76.2     .00000     .77322     .77322         .32702  -8.88744

As a courtesy to the Astros, who won yesterday, they'll remain part of the daily update.

The Mets, as we know, had a great day yesterday, gaining 14.84209 playoff points, almost entirely at the expense of the Brewers. It's looking extremely likely that both the Mets and Phillies will make the playoffs and that the Marlins surge will probably be too little too late. (But it would be nice if they kept it going for at least two more games.)

Mets Magic Numbers: Over the Phillies: 9; Brewers: 7; Marlins and Astros: 5.
Phillies magic number over the Brewers: 7. Over the Marlins and Astros: 5.

NHOP Update: Mets over Phillies: 52.9% (9 out of 17) Mets over Brewers: 41.2% (7 out of 17) Mets over Astros and Marlins: 27.8% (5 out of 18). Of course, the NHOP for the Marlins is a bit more complicated, as they have two remaining games against the Phillies. The happier outcome, by far, in each of those two games would be a Marlins victory.

Personally, I'm not yet at a point where I want to root for the Brewers to win, but to have them overtake the Phillies, but not the Mets, would be sweet.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have clinched a tie for the NL Central, and have a magic number of 1.

With the Mets back in first place, the projected NLDS matchups are Cubs-Phillies and Mets-Dodgers. Cubs and Mets would have home-field advantage.

The Yankees are still barely alive, with .00003% for the AL East and .01529 for the Wild Card.

Diamondback playoff hopes are down to 1.97640.

Other teams still alive, but with their hopes down below 1 point are St. Louis and Toronto.

[Frayed Knot]

Dodgers with a playoff spot almost sewn up despite currently having the [u:02bfa1bece]8th best record[/u:02bfa1bece]
in the NL. That kind of incompetance hasn't been seen since the 2000 Yanquis.

[metirish]

Bookies in Ireland have the Mets at 10/1 to win the WS.

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          87   68   .532   91.2   70.8   67.88938   28.50846   96.39784        9.00684  65.10419
Mets              86   68   .545   90.3   71.7   32.07973   54.92721   87.00695       -0.47350  -1.47401
Brewers           84   71   .531   88.1   73.9     .00000   15.62065   15.62065       -7.50365 -52.01031
Marlins           81   73   .499   84.9   77.1     .03088     .59340     .62429       -0.49727    .43762
Astros            81   73   .467   85.3   76.7     .00000     .30442     .30442       -0.46880 -11.32294

Despite the Mets losing yesterday and the Phillies winning, the Mets wake up this morning with their playoff odds barely dented from the previous day, with a drop of less than half a percentage point. Milwaukee took the hardest hit, losing 7.5 points. The Phillies get the biggest boost, gaining just over 9 points.

Florida's winning streak ended with the defeat to the Phillies and their odds are at a slim .62429%. Astros, with the identical record, are at .30442.

The Phillies once again possess the magic number in the NL East: 8

The Mets have the Wild Card magic number: 6

The Phillies have a magic number of 5 for finishing ahead of the Brewers and likely guaranteeing a playoff berth.

If the Mets play .500 the rest of the way (4-4) the Brewers have to go 6-1 to end up with a tie, 7-0 to beat the Mets outright.

The Mets, unfortunately, will today play their last game of the year against a losing team. After this, it's Cubs and Marlins the rest of the way. The good news is that those last seven games will all be at Shea.

NHOP update:
For the Mets to finish ahead of Philadelphia: 60% (9 happy outcomes in 15 games.)
For the Mets to finish ahead of Milwaukee: 40% (6 out of 15.)

Also, Dodgers now at 98.33335% for the playoffs. White Sox at 87.04390%, Twins at 12.95610%.

[Benjamin Grimm]

..

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          88   68   .532   91.7   70.3   85.45823   12.86629   98.32452        1.92667  38.99482
Mets              86   69   .543   89.8   72.2   14.54098   60.27681   74.81779      -12.18916  -5.60352
Brewers           85   71   .532   88.5   73.5     .00000   26.04179   26.04179       10.42114 -22.67192

These updates are a lot less fun on mornings after days completely lacking in happy outcomes. Yesterday, as we know, the Mets lost and both the Phillies and Brewers won, completely negating the triply-happy Saturday action.

Mets drop 12 playoff points. About 10 of them go to the Brewers and just under 2 to the Phillies.

Mets magic number over the Brewers remains at 6.

The tragic number for the division title is also 6.

Phillies magic number over the Brewers is a mere 4. They're highly likely to be playing in October.

Mets NHOP over Philadelphia is 69.2% (9 out of 13)
Mets NHOP over the Brewers goes from a relatively nice 40% to a less nice 46.2% (6 out of 13).

The bad news is that the Mets now have four games against the first-place Cubs, while the Brewers have three against the last-place Pirates.

It won't be an easy task for the Mets to maintain that wild card lead through Thursday's games and into the final weekend. Especially since Niese and Martinez are starting two of the games against the Cubs.

Let's cross our fingers and see what happens...

[bmfc1]

BG: I appreciate your posting of the numbers and analysis. I know where the numbers may be found, but you do a nice job of dissecting the numbers and explaining them.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Thank you!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, even when reading the analysis causes me to vomit.

[Gwreck]

I think our NHOP against Philadelphia can be reduced to 8 of 13, so long as the Brewers don't catch us, because a tie for the division lead (if the Brewers don't catch us) means that we get the division.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Good point.

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          89   68   .532   92.2   69.8   95.52425    4.10096   99.62521        1.30070  35.21741
Mets              86   70   .542   89.3   72.7    4.47575   60.85076   65.32652       -9.49126  -8.02903
Brewers           85   71   .532   88.5   73.5     .00000   34.03837   34.03837        7.99658 -19.48826

Mets hopes continue to dim and these updates seem more and more masochistic. Another 9� points drop off the playoff odds, with the Brewers taking about 8 of them (a very productive day for an idle team) and the Phillies getting the rest.

The division title is looking like quite a longshot, and the Phillies appear to be playoff bound. (Making their eventual collapse all the sweeter? How great would that be?)

The Mets have a tragic number of 4 for the NL East crown and their Wild Card magic number holds steady at 6.

NHOP for the division is 81.8% (9 out of 11) to win the division outright, or 72.7% (8 of 11) to end in a tie with the Phillies which could (depending on Milwaukee's final record) give the Mets the division title.

The Wild Card NHOP is rising steadily. It's now at 54.5%. (6 of 11) For the Brewers, though, it's 72.7% (8 of 11). It's that in-between value, the 7 of 11, that would lead to a one-game playoff at Shea on Monday.

While we can (and should) still hope for the Phillies to lose whenever possible, we've reached the point where a Brewers loss is more helpful to the Mets than a Phillies loss is. If I had one magic "make a team lose" card, I'd give it to the Brewers one night this week.

[Gwreck]

="Benjamin Grimm"]While we can (and should) still hope for the Phillies to lose whenever possible, we've reached the point where a Brewers loss is more helpful to the Mets than a Phillies loss is. If I had one magic "make a team lose" card, I'd give it to the Brewers one night this week.

I guess that's true if you consider the Wild Card a success.

For me, this season would be successful with an NL East crown or the Wild Card and a first-round playoff victory.

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          89   69   .532   91.6   70.4   87.42335   11.08457   98.50792       -1.11729  18.29007
Mets              87   70   .544   89.8   72.2   12.57665   59.56893   72.14558        6.81905   7.89285
Brewers           86   71   .532   88.8   73.2     .00000   29.29593   29.29593       -4.74244 -19.83427

A good day for the Mets yesterday, but it could have been a great day had the Pirates held on and defeated the Brewers. Oh well. Any day that reduces the magic number and gets the Mets closer to the end of the season is very helpful.

Yesterday's action gained the Mets 6.8 playoff points. Just over one point came from the Phillies, and 4.7 from the Brewers. The rest? It seems to have come in tiny portions from Florida, Houston, and St. Louis. The Marlins and Cards are now officially eliminated and the Astros are hanging on by a thread. The Mets magic number to eliminate them from the Wild Card is 2.

Phillies magic number over the Mets for the NL East is still 4. And it's 3 over the Brewers. Their overall playoff odds are a very healthy 98.50792%. But things can change quickly in the final few games, so you never know.

By beating the Cubs yesterday, the Mets reduce their Wild Card magic number to 5. Their NHOP to finish with a better record than the Phillies is 77.8% (7 out of 9). To tie the Phillies, which could be enough to get them a division title, it's 66.7% (6 of 9).

The NHOP for the Mets relating to the Brewers is 50% (5 out of 10 necessary happy outcomes.) The Brewers need an NHOP of 60% to force a tie and 70% to win the Wild Card outright. That 70% number makes it seem like the odds are good that the Mets will play beyond Sunday, even if it's just the one-game tie-breaker.

Let's look at that magic number of 5, with 5 games remaining for each team.

If the Mets go 3-2, the Brewers need to sweep their last five games to finish with a better record, and have to go 4-1 to force a tie. Starts by Perez, Pelfrey, and Santana give the Mets 3 games that they should have a good chance of winning. (The other two games, with starts by Pedro and TBD have somewhat gloomier prognoses.)

If the Mets go 2-3, the Brewers still need 3-2 to force a tie, and 4-1 to surpass the Mets.

Thursday, Pedro's start, is a key game. If they can find a way to win that one, if they can turn a should-lose into a win, then that will be a huge step towards the post-season.

Remaining schedule: The Mets, Phillies, and Brewers all have nothing but home games the rest of the way. The Phillies finish the schedule against bad teams, who can, as we've seen, be dangerous. They have one game against the Braves and three against the tenacious Nationals. The Mets only play good teams, the NL Central champion Cubs for two games, and the recently eliminated Marlins for three. The Brewers, unfortunately, still have two games against the last-place Pirates, but then they have to face the Cubs for three. Right now I'd say that the Brewers have a slightly softer schedule, but if the Mets can maintain (or expand) their lead over the next two days, the schedule will then swing to the Mets' favor.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

One more nutty thing: Rain forecast for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.