Tracking the Draft

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'd draft that guy just because his name is Yonder

[Farmer Ted]

That ball was hit over YONDER past the home run apple.

Yeah, that might work.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

This mock first-round has us gobbling up 3B/P Ethan Martin, thereby satisfying Vlad's demand for a pitcher/hitter as well as kollege 3Bman/slugger Conor Gillaspie, who cannot firld.

http://tinyurl.com/68hpok

***
And this one has us collecting college catcher Jason Castro & righty Andrew Cashner, with outfielder Ike Davis a supplemental round "steal." Don;t ask me how you can do a mock draft yourself and steal guys.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/6/2/544313/john-s-mock-draft

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Bob Klapish quoting "Team Elders"

]Monday, June 2, 2008 With three early picks, Mets have golden opportunity By Bob Klapisch Special to ESPN.com NEW YORK -- Forgive the Mets for thinking they're about to wake up in some alternate universe -- or at least one that allows for instant makeovers. The oldest team in the major leagues has three of the first 33 picks in the upcoming amateur draft; for the Mets, this opportunity is the equivalent of a man dying of thirst enjoying a long, cool drink. It's logical to assume the Mets will target college players, especially since they'll have only three pitchers under their control in 2009: Johan Santana, John Maine and Mike Pelfrey. The trade for Santana cost the Mets three starting pitchers, while three others -- Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez -- will be eligible for free agency after this season. The real question, however, is whether the Mets will be willing to exceed the slot -- the commissioner's office "suggested" pay scale for blue-chip picks -- in order to restock their system. General manager Omar Minaya is being understandably coy, saying, "we'll see how it goes [on draft day]; we'll see who's available," when asked if the Mets are rethinking their position on slotting. Historically, the Wilpons have been model citizens in Bud Selig's tightly-controlled draft culture, showing no desire to spend freely like the Yankees and Red Sox. However, Minaya dismissed the notion that the Mets are too frugal, pointing to his major league budget of $140 million, the highest in the National League and second overall only to the Yankees. The GM also says slotting has been less of an issue since 2005, the last time the Mets had a first-round pick. That's the surcharge they've had to pay for signing Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner. One Mets senior official flatly said, "we've never lost [a pick] because of slotting. It's been a nonfactor for us because we haven't drafted that high." True or not, Minaya isn't blind to the spending habits of his rivals, including the Yankees. In December, he told Newsday that because the Bombers have been willing to exceed the slot, "they've been able to get Joba Chamberlain and [ian] Kennedy and those kinds of guys." No doubt, the Mets are in a enviable position now, bestowed with the No. 18 (from the Braves for Tom Glavine), No. 22 (Mets' first-round pick) and No. 33 (sandwich first-rounder for a Type A free agent) selections. Since 2005, the Mets have done relatively well, having drafted current major leaguers Mike Pelfrey and Joe Smith, and John Niese and Eddie Kunz, among others. Only Pelfrey was a first-round pick among those players, however, and Minaya wasn't overstating his case this week when he said, "This is a good position for us to be in. We're going to have choices to make, but they'll be good choices. As a general manager, this is something you look forward to." Minaya says the Mets will abide by only one edict when choosing between college or high school candidates, and deciding whether to pursue pitchers or position players: This time around, the GM said, "we're going after the best available players. That's going to come first." The need to replenish is real enough, and Minaya is quick to concede his system is "depleted" at the Triple-A level. But the Mets say they're better off at the lower level than most talent evaluators think, and they are about to flood their system with prospects groomed through their new academy in the Dominican Republic. Indeed, the international talent pool, which is relatively unpoliced by Major League Baseball, is the logical alternative for the slot-abiding Mets. If they're not going to take a chance on, say, first baseman Eric Hosmer -- a high-school All-American with thunderous power from the left side -- because he's represented by Scott Boras, it's far cheaper to cast a wide net in the Caribbean. Trouble is, drafting conservatively and sticking to the slot is risky business. The international market is replete with unproven players; projecting their ceilings is difficult, often impossible. The last option, of course, is free agency, in which the Mets have flourished in the past four years. Clearly, the Mets will be heavily involved in the courtship of Mark Teixeira next winter, and they could have similar interest in, say, C.C. Sabathia. But with more teams holding on to their young stars, free agency is a dying phenomenon. And despite their previous willingness to spend on older stars, the Mets are ready to let the pendulum swing the other way. One team elder said, "we're really trying to change the business model here. We have to start getting more one-to-three [years of service] players on the major league roster. Everyone else is doing it, and we need to do it, too." In line with that philosophy, Minaya says the Mets are already pushing their young prospects through the system, noting that Fernando Martinez, who was signed as an international free agent at 16 in 2005, "is at [Double-A]," the GM said. And so is Kunz, a 6-foot-5 right-hander the Mets hope to groom into the next Joba Chamberlain. That sets the stage for the draft, in which the next generation of Mets is waiting to be plucked. With Alou, Wagner, Martinez and Carlos Delgado all nearing the end of their careers, the next set of decisions the Mets make will be important, if not critical. Bob Klapisch is a sports columnist for The Record (N.J.) and a regular contributor to ESPN.com.

[Frayed Knot]

]The real question, however, is whether the Mets will be willing to exceed the slot -- the commissioner's office "suggested" pay scale for blue-chip picks -- in order to restock their system ... Historically, the Wilpons have been model citizens in Bud Selig's tightly-controlled draft culture, showing no desire to spend freely like the Yankees and Red Sox.

BA continues to dwell on this as well, noting in their last chat that "word is" the Mets are planning to stick with the slotting system and go ahead with "another conservative draft".

But I don't see where that's been an issue with 1st round picks.
All of the recent 1st rounders: Heilman, Kazmir, Pelfrey, Humber, Milledge, were guys going pretty much where they were supposed to - even to the point where some of them fell to the Mets on account of other clubs balking at perceived bonus demands. Peop-le can talk about the recent rash of college relievers picked but those picks were in the 40s thru 70s and I've yet to hear the name mentioned who the Mets supposedly should have drafted but failed to on account of Selig's unofficial boundries.

Where this "slotting" stuff really comes up is in mid/later rounds where some teams will throw a bunch of money at an athletic 'toolsy' HS kid in hopes of talking him out of his college ride and maybe finding a diamond in the rough in the process. That is something the Mets haven't done even though their overall budget would allow them to go this route every now and then.

[Valadius]

Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports has us selecting:

]18. New York Mets � Ethan Martin, RHP/3B (Toccoa, Ga., Stephens County HS): Here we go again, another player whose future could be as a pitcher or as a position player. Martin�s best asset is his power � as a pitcher who touches 95 mph and as a hitter who blasts tape-measure home runs. Scouts love his passion for the game, and he appears willing to go forward either as a pitcher or an everyday player. 22. New York Mets � Conor Gillaspie, 3B (Wichita State): The reigning most valuable player of the Cape Cod League, the left-handed hitting Gillaspie has tremendous makeup as well as a power stroke. There are questions about his defense, and although he might be ready to hit in the big leagues within a year or so, he might be better off with an American League team.

Martin would satisfy my desire to have a Micah Owings-type player.

[Guest AG/DC]

Klapish can really dumb down a thread.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: This mock first-round has us gobbling up 3B/P Ethan Martin, thereby satisfying Vlad's demand for a pitcher/hitter ...

="Valadius"] Martin would satisfy my desire to have a Micah Owings-type player.

[Frayed Knot]

This is the 44th year of June drafts.
Our first draft pick Thursday is #18 - so of the 43 prior 18th picks:

- 22 never reached the major leagues, although that includes 4 of the last 5, some or all of which certainly still could

- the Mets have had 4 of those 18th picks - all in a 10-year span:
[u:c341018ff9]1991: Al Shirley[/u:c341018ff9] - an OFer from a Virginia High School, Shirley was a compensation pick for losing Strawberry to the Dodgers and is one of those who never reached the bigs
[u:c341018ff9]1992: Chris Roberts[/u:c341018ff9] - a LHP from Fla St, he also never reached ML
[u:c341018ff9]1995: Ryan Jaroncyk[/u:c341018ff9] - a high school SS who played one year in the minors before announcing he was no longer interested in playing baseball
[u:c341018ff9]2001: Aaron Heilman[/u:c341018ff9] - also a compensation pick (Mike Hampton)


- Best 18th picks in history?:
Carlos May - 1966
Jamie Quirk - 1972
Willie Wilson - 1974
Glenn Wilson - 1980

[Guest AG/DC]

Jaroncyk gave it a few years.

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=7174

[Frayed Knot]

Our next pick is #22 - a pick which has actually been somewhat more successful than the eighteens

Only 13 failed to eventually become ML players including the last 3.
Prior to those 3, 20 straight had reached.

Mets have never had a 22nd pick, but did give one to the Cardinals back in 1991 for signing Vince Coleman, a pick became RHP Brian Barber. They also had #22 in 1999 but ceded it to the ChiSox when they signed Robin Ventura, a pick that turned into (brief) future Met Matt Ginter.

2 possible HoFers came via pick #22:
- Rafael Palmiero in 1985
- Craig Biggio in 1987 (Seton Hall Univ via Kings Park HS)
Also Chet Lemon (1972); Bruce Hurst (1976); Terry Francona (1980); Rick Helling (1992)

[Frayed Knot]

AG/DC wrote: Jaroncyk gave it a few years. http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=7174

Yeah, I guess he played the one full season plus two partials - one being the year he was drafted and then the one he walked out in the middle of.
He later decided to make a comeback w/other orgs but that didn't go too well either.

[nymr83]

]Martin would satisfy my desire to have a Micah Owings-type player

I think if Val ever met Owings he would bend over.

[Frayed Knot]

The mock draft at Baseball Prospectus has Mets looking at Missouri High School hurler Tim Melville (I think he'll be a whale of a pick) at #18:
- [RHP] Melville began the season as one of the top high school pitchers available, but he disappointed observers throughout much of the season before returning to form down the stretch. He wants to be paid the way his pre-season status dictated, and the Mets have deep pockets.

- while hoping that U of Miami 2B Jemile Weeks (brother of Rickie) is still available come pick #22; "one of the top college athletes available" -- with Tulane RHP Shooter Hunt (I'd take him for the name alone) as a fallback
- early in the season the Tulane ace looked like he might be one the first ten selections, but he ran out of gas by the end of the year, and was rarely more than ordinary. [but if you] believe in the early-season showings, Shooter would be a steal here


NYDN's Adam Rubin quotes MLB writer Jonathan Mayo as thinking the Mets are after Weeks, Arizona State 1B Ike Davis (son of former NYY reliever Ron) or Arizona reliever Ryan Perry
- He has more velocity than any of the other college bullpen arms, but some scouts are concerned about the straightness of his pitch, and his overall numbers are hardly dominating
I know, another (ugh!) college reliever - although it's hadly just us, 4 or 5 of them are listed in the projected top 30 picks.

[MFS62]

MLB.com predicts the Mets will pick:

Issac Davis 1B, OF as the 18th pick

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl_3_1.jsp?w_id=701984&w=/2008/open/draft/broll/br_davis_isaac_400.wmv&mid=200805302799417&pid=gen_video&vid=11071&cid=mlb&v=2

And Reese Davis SS as the 22nd pick

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl_3_1.jsp?w_id=702153&w=/2008/open/draft/broll/br_havens_david_400.wmv&mid=200805302799589&pid=gen_video&vid=11071&cid=mlb&v=2
_________________


The shortstop doesn't have a good swing, even in BP - scary.
But the First baseman has been mentioned as a prospect in some of the posts above.

Later