Over/Under Contest

[Frayed Knot]

Time for our first check-up now that each team has reached the 20 game mark (we were the last).
Each team is shown with;
- their pre-season projected Over/Under number
- their wins over the first 20 games (games played since, if any, have been ignored)
- the number of wins that would project to over a full season
- and whether that team is currently tracking ahead or behind the over/under number

TEAM	Proj O/U	Wins thru 20	Proj thru 162	Trend
NYM	93.5	11	89	UNDER
PHIL	87.5	10	81	UNDER
ATL	84.5	10	81	UNDER
WASH	70.5	5	42	UNDER
FLA	68.5	12	97	OVER
CHIC	87.5	15	113	OVER
MILW	84.5	12	97	OVER
CINC	79.5	8	65	UNDER
StL	78.5	13	105	OVER
HOUS	72.5	8	65	UNDER
PITT	68.5	8	65	UNDER
ARIZ	86.5	15	122	OVER
LAD	87.5	8	65	UNDER
SD	84.5	9	73	UNDER
COLO	82.5	9	73	UNDER
SF	71.5	8	65	UNDER

Y'all can check the chart above to see how your guesses are doing.

[Frayed Knot]

Time for the 40-game checkup.

All win totals shown where the team was [u:37e979bd4a]as of its 40th game[/u:37e979bd4a].
O/U trend say 'CLOSE' if full season projection is within +/- 4 games, or 'WAY' over or under if +/- 15 games

TEAM	Proj O/U	Wins thru 40	Proj thru 162	Trend
NYM	93.5	21	85	UNDER
PHIL	87.5	22	89	CLOSE
ATL	84.5	20	81	CLOSE
WASH	70.5	16	65	UNDER
FLA	68.5	23	93	WAY OVER
CHIC	87.5	24	97	OVER
MILW	84.5	20	81	CLOSE
CINC	79.5	17	69	UNDER
StL	78.5	23	93	WAY OVER
HOUS	72.5	22	89	WAY OVER
PITT	68.5	19	77	OVER
ARIZ	86.5	25	101	WAY OVER
LAD	87.5	21	85	CLOSE
SD	84.5	15	61	WAY UNDER
COLO	82.5	15	61	WAY UNDER
SF	71.5	17	69	CLOSE

[batmagadanleadoff]

NYM - 93.5 UNDER
PHIL - 87.5 OVER
ATL - 84.5 OVER
FLA - 68.5 OVER

CHIC - 87.5 OVER
MILW - 84.5 OVER
ARIZ - 86.5 OVER
SD - 84.5 UNDER
COLO - 82.5 UNDER

[batmagadanleadoff]

="batmagadanleadoff"]NYM - 93.5 UNDER PHIL - 87.5 OVER ATL - 84.5 OVER FLA - 68.5 OVER CHIC - 87.5 OVER MILW - 84.5 OVER ARIZ - 86.5 OVER SD - 84.5 UNDER COLO - 82.5 UNDER

I picked nine teams instead of eight. Remove MILW from my picks. That should fix it. So:

NYM - 93.5 UNDER
PHIL - 87.5 OVER
ATL - 84.5 OVER
FLA - 68.5 OVER

CHIC - 87.5 OVER
ARIZ - 86.5 OVER
SD - 84.5 UNDER
COLO - 82.5 UNDER

[Guest Kong76]

Uh, it's May 17th.

[batmagadanleadoff]

KC wrote: Uh, it's May 17th.

And put me down for the '69 Mets winning 100 while you're at it! I thought you guys started this poll today. Mar. 17. May 17. All looks the same kinda. Although I have to admit, I did think it strange that this contest would've been started today.

[nymr83]

hello? vegas? i'll take the Giants to win the superbowl. no no i don't want the points, give me the money line!

[batmagadanleadoff]

Nymr83 wrote: hello? vegas? i'll take the Giants to win the superbowl. no no i don't want the points, give me the money line!

Hey -- isn't that the same joke I made about an hour before you did?

[nymr83]

making fun of yourself isn't going to stop others from making fun of you too, i felt the need to pile on.

[batmagadanleadoff]

="Nymr83"]making fun of yourself isn't going to stop others from making fun of you too, i felt the need to pile on.

I wasn't trying to stop anyone from piling on. I deserve a good ribbing and I can appreciate a funny post as much as anyone, even when I'm the target. Though I'm not surprised that it's you that needs to pile on here. (Need? Did you write "need"?)

[Frayed Knot]

Time for the 54-game (1/3 of the season) check-up.

TEAM	Proj O/U	Wins thru 54	Proj thru 162	Trend
NYM	93.5	27	81	UNDER
PHIL	87.5	30	90	CLOSE
ATL	84.5	29	87	CLOSE
WASH	70.5	23	69	CLOSE
FLA	68.5	31	93	WAY OVER
CHIC	87.5	33	99	OVER
MILW	84.5	26	78	UNDER
CINC	79.5	25	75	UNDER
StL	78.5	31	93	WAY OVER
HOUS	72.5	30	90	WAY OVER
PITT	68.5	25	75	OVER
ARIZ	86.5	30	90	CLOSE
LAD	87.5	27	81	UNDER
SD	84.5	20	60	WAY UNDER
COLO	82.5	20	60	WAY UNDER
SF	71.5	23	69	CLOSE

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'd like to point out here that 2 out of 3 Way Over's have yet to play the Mets.

[Elster88]

The Mets qualify as a way under, no?

[Frayed Knot]

I arbitrarily chose (prior to the 40-game checkup) to use +/- 15 games for a 'WAY' over/under description (and within 4 games for a 'CLOSE') so I'll stick with those for consistancy purposes.

[Frayed Knot]

Half-way home:

.

TEAM	Proj O/U	Wins thru 54	Proj thru 162	Trend
NYM	93.5	40	80	UNDER
PHIL	87.5	43	86	CLOSE
ATL	84.5	40	80	UNDER
WASH	70.5	32	64	UNDER
FLA	68.5	42	84	WAY OVER
CHIC	87.5	49	98	OVER
MILW	84.5	44	88	CLOSE
CINC	79.5	36	72	UNDER
StL	78.5	46	92	WAY OVER
HOUS	72.5	38	76	CLOSE
PITT	68.5	38	76	OVER
ARIZ	86.5	41	82	UNDER
LAD	87.5	38	76	UNDER
SD	84.5	32	64	WAY UNDER
COLO	82.5	32	64	WAY UNDER
SF	71.5	35	70	CLOSE

[Benjamin Grimm]

Although it's close, the Phillies at the moment are an "under" which means that if the contest were to end today, I'd be correct with four of my eight guesses: Nationals, Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers. And I'm wrong about the Phillies, Rockies, Marlins, and Cubs.

[Frayed Knot]

How your predictions were doing as of the 81 game mark:

Frayed Knot	3 - 5
AG/DC	4 - 4
JCL	3 - 5
Nymr	5 - 3
Triple D	2 - 6
Sharpie	7 - 1
Smg58	4 - 4
Bmfc1	2 - 6
GWreck	3 - 5
Ben Grimm	3 - 5
Doc Tee	5 - 3
GYC	5 - 3
Old Mole	5 - 3
Hahn Solo	4 - 4
Mndz Line	2 - 6
Numb 6	3 - 5
KC	4 - 4
ABNS	4 - 4
SeaWolf	2 - 6

[Frayed Knot]

At the 120 Game (3/4) mark:

TEAM	Proj O/U	Wins thru 120	Proj thru 162	Trend
NYM	93.5	64	86	UNDER
PHIL	87.5	64	86	CLOSE
ATL	84.5	55	74	UNDER
WASH	70.5	44	59	UNDER
FLA	68.5	63	85	WAY OVER
CHIC	87.5	73	99	OVER
MILW	84.5	69	93	OVER
CINC	79.5	53	72	UNDER
StL	78.5	65	88	OVER
HOUS	72.5	61	82	OVER
PITT	68.5	55	74	OVER
ARIZ	86.5	61	82	UNDER
LAD	87.5	61	82	UNDER
SD	84.5	46	62	WAY UNDER
COLO	82.5	53	72	UNDER
SF	71.5	50	68	CLOSE

[Frayed Knot]

Final Results

TEAM	Proj O/U	FINAL	O/U
NYM	93.5	89	UNDER
PHIL	87.5	92	OVER
ATL	84.5	72	UNDER
WASH	70.5	59	UNDER
FLA	68.5	84	OVER
CHIC	87.5	97	OVER
MILW	84.5	90	OVER
CINC	79.5	74	UNDER
StL	78.5	86	OVER
HOU	72.5	86	OVER
PIT	68.5	67	UNDER
ARZ	86.5	82	UNDER
LAD	87.5	84	UNDER
SD	84.5	63	UNDER
COL	82.5	74	UNDER
SF	71.5	72	OVER

Sharpie = 6 correct
Right: Braves, Cubs, Reds, Astros, Pads, Rox
Wrong: Cards, Giants

Old Mole = 6
Right: Phils, Braves, Cubs, Cards, Dbacks, Dodgers
Wrong: Mets, Marlins

Nymr83 = 5
Right: Phils, Braves, Nats, Cubs, Reds
Wrong: Dodgers, Pads, Giants

Doc Tee = 5
Right: Phils, Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Pads
Wrong: Braves, Cards, Giants

GYC = 4
Right: Mets, Brewers, Reds, Dbacks
Wrong: Phils, Braves, Cards, Pads

Hahn Solo = 4
Right: Mets, Cards, Astros, Rox
Wrong: Braves, Marlins, Dbacks, Dodgers

Mendoza Line = 4
Right: Phils, Astros, Pirates, Pads
Wrong: Braves, Nats, Dodgers, Rox

KC = 4
Right: Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, Rox
Wrong: Mets, Nats, Reds, Giants

Ben Grimm = 4
Right: Phils, Reds, Cards, Dodgers
Wrong: Nats, Marlins, Cubs, Rox

JC Lunchbucket = 3
Right: Mets, Brewers, Giants
Wrong: Nats, Astros, Pirates, Dbacks, Rox

Triple D = 3
Right: Phils, Braves, Dodgers
Wrong: Phils, Nats, Marlins, Cards, Dbacks

Smg58 = 3
Right: Braves, Cubs, Brewers
Wrong: Nats, Astros, DBacks, Rox, Giants

GWreck = 3
Right: Brewers, Dodgers, Pads
Wrong: Mets, Braves, Cards, Astros, Dbacks

A Roy Named Seo = 3
Right: Mets, Brewers, Dbacks
Wrong: Braves, Cards, Pirates, Pads, Rox

Frayed Knot = 2
Right: Cubs, Brewers
Wrong: Nats, Reds, Cards, DBacks, Pads, Giants

AG/DC = 2
Right: Brewers, Pads
Wrong: Nats, Marlins, Astros, Pirates, Dbacks, Giants

Bmfc1 = 2
Right: Brewers, Astros
Wrong: Mets, Braves, Cubs, Cards, Astros, DBacks, Rox

Number6 = 2
Right: Mets, Brewers
Wrong: Braves, Marlins, Cubs, Cards, DBacks, Giants

Seawolf = 2
Right: Brewers, Pirates
Wrong: Mets, Reds, Pirates, DBacks, Rox, Giants



All prizes must be picked up in person at the home office located at 1 Terrorist Lane, Baghdad, Iraq

[Guest AG/DC]

This is why I don't make predicitons.

sharpie and Mole should use the post-season as a tie-breaker.