Go Nats & Brews ... and also the Snakes (or maybe not)

[Frayed Knot]

We just became really big (temporary) fans of several out of town teams.

The Central race is irrelevent to us as neither Chicago or Milwaukee can catch our record if it comes down to that. It's just that the Brewers are playing the Padres so we're beermakers for the weekend.
And we're fans of the D'Backs because they're playing the Rockies who are closer to us ... unless the Rockies want to REALLY beat up on them (I'll explain later).


But first, the NL East possibilities which are pretty simple: out-win or at least win even with the Phillies

	Phils = 0	Phils = 1	Phils = 2	Phils = 3
Mets = 0	Tie East	OUT	OUT	OUT
Mets = 1	Win East	Tie East	*	*
Mets = 2	Win East	Win East	Tie East	#
Mets = 3	Win East	Win East	Win East	Tie East

Then there are those exceptions:

* = Also need San Diego to lose all 3 AND Colorado to lose at least two:
Rockies lose two = 3 way tie for WC (NYM, SDP, CR)
Rockies lose three = 2 way tie for WC (NYM & SD)

# = Need San Diego to lose at least two AND Colorado to lose at least one
SD = 0-3 & Col = 0-3 OR 1-2 ------>> Mets as WC
SD = 0-3 & Col = 2-1 ------->> Mets & Colorado tied for WC
SD = 1-2 & Col = 0-3 OR 1-2 ------>> Mets & SD tied for WC
SD = 1-2 & Col = 2-1 ------>> 3-Way Tie for WC



As for that Rockies/D'Backs oddity:
There also exists a way in by having the Rockies beating the Snakes but only if they win all 3.
That, plus Mets winning twice and the Padres losing at least twice gives the Rox the NLWest crown and:
a) puts us into a WC tie with Ariz if SD loses all three
OR
into a 3 way tie with the Snakes & Padres if SD loses two.



Hope you got all that because there's going to be a quiz later

Edited September 28, 2007 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

You know, if we were Phillies fans all of this would be very exciting.

Coming from where we were to where we are now, it's just dreadful.

Being a Mets fan has to start being fun again. Otherwise, what's the point? Let's hope the fun starts today.

[metirish]

Yeah feck the rest, The Mets starting tonight will start playing like we know they can, with Mets pride and with Mets passion.

Seeing the fans in Philly with their towels makes me mad as hell, I hope by Sunday night all they are good for is wiping their arses.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Beating them in Philadelphia on Monday night would be pretty sweet though. Especially after the way the last seven confrontations have gone.

[duan]

i think i would throw up every time jimmy rollins came to the plate though.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Don't worry, I have a plan.

If the game gets played, I'm going to send fancy invitations to Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Burrell. It will invite them to a really great party Monday night in Guam. By the time they realize it was a sham, it will be too late for them to get back to Philadelphia by game time!

[Frayed Knot]

One other set of circumstances needs to be added to the possibilities up top, and that's that one of those Mets & Phils tie scenarios could actually be part of a [u:af7fad2dc7]4 Way Tie[/u:af7fad2dc7].

Mets win two + Phils win two + Rockies win two + Padres win one

That means the DBacks would win the West and there'd be, in effect, two two-way ties:
1) Mets & Phils playoff to see who wins the East
2) Pads & Rox playoff to eliminate one of them
Then the Pads/Rox [u:af7fad2dc7]Winner[/u:af7fad2dc7] would play off against the Mets/Phils [u:af7fad2dc7]Loser[/u:af7fad2dc7] to determine the WC

So it's actually possible to tie with the Phils after Sunday, then lose a Monday game to them, and STILL have a shot at post-season.
Of course it would all be much easier if we'd just throw up a 3-game winning streak. We have the technology.

[nymr83]

the way the philllies are playing i'm worried that goin 2-1 this weekend will lose us the division.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Don't worry, I have a plan. If the game gets played, I'm going to send fancy invitations to Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Burrell. It will invite them to a really great party Monday night in Guam. By the time they realize it was a sham, it will be too late for them to get back to Philadelphia by game time!

Send it to the Phillies? Heck, I'm hatching a plan.

Guillermo Mota, where you goin'?

"Guam. Me and Aaron Sele got invitations to a kicking party. Brian Lawrence is already there..."

[Frayed Knot]

Well, we're still Brews & Snakes & (especially) Nats fans for the rest of today and Sunday.
The DBacks have clinched a post-season spot ... they're just not sure which one yet.


* IF WE LOSE TOMMORROW* we can STILL play at least until Monday -- BUT ONLY IF:
- Phils lose today & Sunday (Tie for NL East)
AND/OR
- SD loses today & Sunday while Colorado loses Either Sat or Sun (3-way tie for WC) or Both Sat & Sun (2-way tie for WC)



* WITH A WIN ON SUNDAY* we will live to see Monday IF:
- Phils lose EITHER Saturday or Sunday
AND/OR
- SD loses EITHER Saturday or Sunday
- Rockies can get themselves into the mix with two wins but their results can not oust us in this scenario



** WE ARE FREE AND CLEAR WITH A WIN TOMORROW IF **
- Phils lose BOTH Saturday & Sunday {NL East Champs}
AND/OR
- SD loses BOTH Saturday & Sunday - AND - Rockies lose EITHER Saturday or Sunday {Wild Card all by our lonesome}



I think that covers all the possibilities.
Still pretty dicey but it looks a helluva lot better than it did this morning.

Edited September 29, 2007 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes. It's nice, at least, that Sunday's game will be "meaningful."

[Frayed Knot]

So Saturday was the exact opposite of Friday as the three outcomes that went against us Friday went our way our way on Saturday with only the Rox/DBacks game being the exception both times.



So after 161 games it comes down to this:

* SD is assured of at least a play-in game on Monday and will clinch WC with a win on Sunday, or with Met AND Rockie losses

* Mets win Sunday and they live at least another day regardless of what happens elsewhere

* Mets win & Phils lose = NL East Champs

* Mets can survive until a Monday play-in with a Sunday loss if Phils also lose. West games irrelevent in that case.

* If Mets & Phils both win AND:
- SD wins: We play for NL East Monday but CAN NOT be the WC
- SD & Rox both lose: Play for NL East on Monday and the loser plays SD for the WC
- SD loses but Rox win: Play for NL East Monday and the loser of that gets thrown into a WC round-robin with SD & Colorado where the Rox would wait to meet the Padres/Mets winner

[Benjamin Grimm]

Some strange scenarios here.

Let's say the Mets and Phillies and Brewers and Rockies all win today, and the Mets win tomorrow's playoff game in Philadelphia.

The Mets final regular season record would be 90-73.

Then the Phillies go on to beat both the Rockies and Padres in the additional tiebreakers.

The Phillies would end up at 91-74. The second place team would have won more games than the first place team. That's not something you see often. And the Phillies would have played the first 165-game season since the Dodgers and the Giants in 1962.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I've never been keen about counting those one-game playoffs as regular-season games.

Least of my concerns right now, but since you bring it up.

[Frayed Knot]

btw, in those final scenarios described above:

1) Mets Win, Phils Win, Padres Lose, Rockies Lose:
If the Mets [u:08675a3d2a]lose[/u:08675a3d2a] the NL East showdown they would [u:08675a3d2a]Host[/u:08675a3d2a] the Padres for the WC play-in game on Tuesday as determined by a coin flip

2) Mets Win, Phils, Win, Padres Lose, Rockies Win:
Mets would again host SD if not East champs - and then the winner of that would host the Rockies to determine the WC winner. The Rox get that one-game "bye" by virtue of having the best head-to-head record among the three but have to play that single game on the road.

Edited September 30, 2007 by Guest

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Frayed Knot wrote: btw, in those final scenarios described above: 1) Mets Win, Phils Win, Padres Lose, Rockies Lose: Mets would Host the Padres for the WC play-in game on Tuesday (determined by a coin flip) assuming of course that they first beat the Phils in the one-game East showdown 2) Mets Win, Phils, Win, Padres Lose, Rockies Win: Mets would again host SD if they got past the Phils - and then the winner of that would host the Rockies to determine the WC winner. The Rox get that one-game "bye" by virtue of having the best head-to-head record among the three but have to play that single game on the road.

Wouldn't the loser of the hypothetical Mets-Phils playoff be the one that has to play San Diego and Colorado for the Wild Card spot?

[nymr83]

if the phillies lose to the Mets tommorow, and then play SD and COL, Jimmy Rollins can tie Maury Wills record of 165 games played in a season.

[Frayed Knot]

"Wouldn't the loser of the hypothetical Mets-Phils playoff be the one that has to play San Diego and Colorado for the Wild Card spot?"

Yeah, that's what I meant.
I'll fix.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

="Frayed Knot"]"Wouldn't the loser of the hypothetical Mets-Phils playoff be the one that has to play San Diego and Colorado for the Wild Card spot?" Yeah, that's what I meant. I'll fix.

Why even bother?

[Elster88]

The Nats did what they could. If we can't take 2 out of 3 from the Marlins we don't deserve to go to the playoffs.