One for the Ages

[Guest Edgy DC]

Remarkable about David Wright's season is not only his productivity, but continuing to produce in the face of Willie Randolph's workload, a challenge that can speculatively blamed in part for Jose Reyes' second-half slump. He's played 97.59% of the Mets innings at third this season, while Reyes has heroically clocked 98.54% of the shorty innings.

Wright is now on his way to one of the most productive batting seasons in Met history, as measured by my favorited quick metric (OPS+ - 60) * PA.

I'm not measuring defensive contribution here nor baserunning contribution, but likely these two would be a net plus with Wright, despite his annoying ninth-inning yips. He's currently sneaking up on the great outlier, Bernard Gilkey's 1996.

He'd nonetheless have to go quite nuts to join his batting coach as the only Mets every to rack up 70,000 EBM points.

Go, Davey, go.

Rank	Player	Season	OPS+	PA	EBM
1	Howard Johnson	1989	169	655	71,395
2	John Olerud	1998	163	665	68,495
3	Darryl Strawberry	1988	165	640	67,200
4	Darryl Strawberry	1987	162	640	65,280
Proj.	David Wright	2007	152	706	64,974
5	Bernard Gilkey	1996	157	656	63,632
6	David Wright	2007	152	667	61,364
7	Edgardo Alfonzo	2000	150	650	58,500
8	Carlos Beltran	2006	153	617	57,381
9	Howard Johnson	1991	145	658	55,930
10	Keith Hernandez	1984	143	657	54,531
11	Mike Piazza	2000	159	545	53,955
12	Keith Hernandez	1986	141	652	52,812
13	Lee Mazzilli	1979	135	693	51,975
14	Todd Hundley	1996	143	624	51,792
15	Mike Piazza	2001	150	573	51,570
16	John Olerud	1999	131	723	51,333
17	David Wright	2005	138	657	51,246
18	Cleon Jones	1969	151	558	50,778
19	David Wright	2006	136	661	50,236
20	Gary Carter	1985	139	633	50,007

[metirish]

I have no idea what EBM points are,not even an educated guess,did I totally miss something?

[Guest Edgy DC]

As stated, (OPS+ - 60) * PA.

Edgy Batting Metric.

You can prove anything as long as you make up your own stat.

[nymr83]

why -60? why not -80? (which is what i've been told "replacement level" is)
otherwise the concept is a good one

[Guest Edgy DC]

I've understood 60. If 80, EBM is a lie.

[Guest Edgy DC]

How does that translate into MVP voting? Sporadically.

Rank	Player	Season	OPS+	PA	EBM	MVP Rank	MVP Share
1	Howard Johnson	1989	169	655	71,395	5	0.46
2	John Olerud	1998	163	665	68,495	12	0.08
3	Darryl Strawberry	1988	165	640	67,200	2	0.70
4	Darryl Strawberry	1987	162	640	65,280	6	0.28
Proj.	David Wright	2007	152	706	64,974	--	--
5	Bernard Gilkey	1996	157	656	63,632	14	0.03
6	David Wright	2007	152	667	61,364	--	--
7	Edgardo Alfonzo	2000	150	650	58,500	15	0.01
8	Carlos Beltran	2006	153	617	57,381	4	0.47
9	Howard Johnson	1991	145	658	55,930	5	0.33
10	Keith Hernandez	1984	143	657	54,531	2	0.58
11	Mike Piazza	2000	159	545	53,955	3	0.60
12	Keith Hernandez	1986	141	652	52,812	4	0.53
13	Lee Mazzilli	1979	135	693	51,975	--	--
14	Todd Hundley	1996	143	624	51,792	18	0.02
15	Mike Piazza	2001	150	573	51,570	13	0.03
16	John Olerud	1999	131	723	51,333	--	--
17	David Wright	2005	138	657	51,246	19	0.04
18	Cleon Jones	1969	151	558	50,778	7	0.24
19	David Wright	2006	136	661	50,236	9	0.16
20	Gary Carter	1985	139	633	50,007	6	0.35

[Guest Mendoza Line]

Edgy DC wrote: I've understood 60. If 80, EBM is a lie.

Yeah, but not of the evil, pernicious type. The difference in rank isn't great (not posting the table so as to save some space here). All else equal, using 80 gives less weight to PA and more to OPS+, so it generally helps the catchers a bit.

I checked quickly and didn't see any other seasons that would get into the top 20 if OPS+ - 80 replaces OPS+ - 60.

[metsmarathon]

if an OPS+ of 80 is replacement level, then paul loduca is just barely above replacement, and jose valentin just barely below (82 and 78 OPS+ respectively, as of today's bbref stats).

if an OPS+ of 60 is replacement level, then julio franco is replacement (OPS+ of 59).

the latter feels more right.

oe: a quick crosscheck between baseball prospectus (for which this season it appears as if a 0.230 EQA is replacement level) and baseballreference, and it looks like about a 67 (up to maybe 71) OPS+ is replacement level this year.

so stephen drew, marcus giles, and brad ausmus, to name a few, are your example replacements.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm going with 60. That's what you find on the waiver wire.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Babe Ruth, for comparison, had nine seasons over 100,000, despite this being a cumulative statistic, and him playing a shorter season.

He had three over 120,000!

In 1918, he played in 95 games for Boston, still pitching in 20, 19 as a starter, and spending part-time duty as an outfielder and firstbaseman. By this metric, those 95 games would be better than all but 17 seasons had by any Mets player.

[Elster88]

Edgy DC wrote: ... Willie Randolph's workload, a challenge that can speculatively blamed in part for Jose Reyes' second-half slump...

I thought I was the only one.

[Theoldmole]

For those of us hopelessly mired in the mid-20th Century...

I actually do know what OPS is. And I can figure out the last part as divided by Plate Appearances. But what is plus or minus 60? Or 80?

[Theoldmole]

Scratch that. Multiplied by Plate Appearances.

[Guest Edgy DC]

OPS+ is a players OPS over the league average OPS (or in the NL, the league average not including pitchers), multiplied by 100. An OPS of 150 is 50% higher than the league average.

Sixty is subtracted because an OPS+ of 60 can be said (there's some disagreement in this thread) to be typical of a replacement player, the level of player you can grab off the waiver wire.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Through 155 games, he inches closer.

The protracted division race doesn't allow him to get the rest he needs, but it does allow him to garner more EBM points.

He's now projecting toward the third best EBM season ever.

Rank	Player	Season	OPS+	PA	EBM
1	Howard Johnson	1989	169	655	71,395
2	John Olerud	1998	163	665	68,495
3	Darryl Strawberry	1988	165	640	67,200
Proj.	David Wright	2007	153	709	65,937
4	Darryl Strawberry	1987	162	640	65,280
5	Bernard Gilkey	1996	157	656	63,632
6	David Wright	2007	153	678	63,054
7	Edgardo Alfonzo	2000	150	650	58,500
8	Carlos Beltran	2006	153	617	57,381
9	Howard Johnson	1991	145	658	55,930
10	Keith Hernandez	1984	143	657	54,531
11	Mike Piazza	2000	159	545	53,955
12	Keith Hernandez	1986	141	652	52,812
13	Lee Mazzilli	1979	135	693	51,975
14	Todd Hundley	1996	143	624	51,792
15	Mike Piazza	2001	150	573	51,570
16	John Olerud	1999	131	723	51,333
17	David Wright	2005	138	657	51,246
18	Cleon Jones	1969	151	558	50,778
19	David Wright	2006	136	661	50,236
20	Gary Carter	1985	139	633	50,007

[Guest Edgy DC]

How awesome was HoJo '89 that he remained so unapproached by his MVP-chasing protege?

Rank	Player	Season	OPS+	PA	EBM
1	Howard Johnson	1989	169	655	71,395
2	John Olerud	1998	163	665	68,495
3	Darryl Strawberry	1988	165	640	67,200
4	David Wright	2007	152	711	65,412
5	Darryl Strawberry	1987	162	640	65,280
6	Bernard Gilkey	1996	157	656	63,632
7	Edgardo Alfonzo	2000	150	650	58,500
8	Carlos Beltran	2006	153	617	57,381
9	Howard Johnson	1991	145	658	55,930
10	Keith Hernandez	1984	143	657	54,531
11	Mike Piazza	2000	159	545	53,955
12	Keith Hernandez	1986	141	652	52,812
13	Lee Mazzilli	1979	135	693	51,975
14	Todd Hundley	1996	143	624	51,792
15	Mike Piazza	2001	150	573	51,570
16	John Olerud	1999	131	723	51,333
17	David Wright	2005	138	657	51,246
18	Cleon Jones	1969	151	558	50,778
19	David Wright	2006	136	661	50,236
20	Gary Carter	1985	139	633	50,007