Mets/Marlins. Phillies/Nationals.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This weekend the Mets play a four-game series in Miami, and the Phillies are the guests for the final four games at RFK Stadium.

The eight games to be played over the next four days will go a long way to determining how confident or panicky we need to be for the remainder of the regular season.

There are 25 possible ways for the weekend to unfold. Here they are, along with the net results of each scenario.

After Thursday's action, we'll be down to 16 possibilities. Friday will bring us down to 9, and after Saturday there will be 4.

Mets Wins	Phillies Wins	Monday morning Mets Lead	Monday morning Magic Number
4	0	6.5	1
4	1	5.5	2
3	0	5.5	2
4	2	4.5	3
3	1	4.5	3
2	0	4.5	3
4	3	3.5	4
3	2	3.5	4
2	1	3.5	4
1	0	3.5	4
4	4	2.5	5
3	3	2.5	5
2	2	2.5	5
1	1	2.5	5
0	0	2.5	5
3	4	1.5	6
2	3	1.5	6
1	2	1.5	6
0	1	1.5	6
2	4	0.5	7
1	3	0.5	7
0	2	0.5	7
1	4	-0.5	8
0	3	-0.5	8
0	4	-1.5	9

[metirish]

Great work,makes me feel better looking at that.

Makes me realize what a collapse it would be too.

[Guest sharpie]

I'm going to Monday night's game at Shea. Good to see it is still possible using scenarios 1, 2 and 3 that I could be going to a clinching game.

[TransMonk]

Sorry, shapie. The Phils are off Monday...so only the first scenario will allow them to clinch that day.

[Guest sharpie]

Long odds but still possible! To think, that last week I was worried that it might be a post-clinching game and that all I would see would be the scrubs.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I'm penciling in that makeup game next Thursday. Oughta buy tixx now.

[Benjamin Grimm]

TransMonk wrote: Sorry, shapie. The Phils are off Monday...so only the first scenario will allow them to clinch that day.

Let's go for that one, then.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, now two of the eight games have been played, and, as we know, neither of them went our way.

So the nine possibilities that were eliminated were most of the best ones.

My prediction at this point: One Monday morning the Magic Number will be 6 and the Mets will still have a 1.5 game lead.

Let's watch (from between our fingers, perhaps) and see.

Let's GO Mets!

Mets Wins	Phillies Wins	Monday morning Mets Lead	Monday morning Magic Number
3	1	4.5	3
3	2	3.5	4
2	1	3.5	4
3	3	2.5	5
2	2	2.5	5
1	1	2.5	5
3	4	1.5	6
2	3	1.5	6
1	2	1.5	6
0	1	1.5	6
2	4	0.5	7
1	3	0.5	7
0	2	0.5	7
1	4	-0.5	8
0	3	-0.5	8
0	4	-1.5	9

[Benjamin Grimm]

Now FOUR of the eight games have been played, and ONE of them has turned out the way we wanted.

Here are the remaining Monday morning scenarios:

Mets Wins	Phillies Wins	Monday morning Mets Lead	Monday morning Magic Number
3	2	3.5	4
3	3	2.5	5
2	2	2.5	5
3	4	1.5	6
2	3	1.5	6
1	2	1.5	6
2	4	0.5	7
1	3	0.5	7
1	4	-0.5	8

I'm sticking with my prediction that the Monday Morning Magic Number will be 6.

[Gwreck]

I do feel better knowing that at worst we would be 1/2 game out.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Here's a little interim update. The Mets have won this afternoon's game, and the Phillies game in Washington is just underway.

Five of the eight games have now been played, and two of them have gone our way.

Mets Wins	Phillies Wins	Monday morning Mets Lead	Monday morning Magic Number
3	2	3.5	4
3	3	2.5	5
2	2	2.5	5
3	4	1.5	6
2	3	1.5	6
2	4	0.5	7

[Guest holychicken]

It's nice to see those negative "Mets Lead" numbers getting pushed off the table.

[Guest Edgy DC]

We're clinched first for the weekend.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This would look even better if the Phillies would lose once in a while.

Mets Wins	Phillies Wins	Monday morning Mets Lead	Monday morning Magic Number
3	3	2.5	5
3	4	1.5	6
2	3	1.5	6
2	4	0.5	7

[Benjamin Grimm]

So, to wrap this thing up, four of the eight games ended up going our way.

I'll take it.

Mets Wins	Phillies Wins	Monday morning Mets Lead	Monday morning Magic Number
3	3	2.5	5