The Decline and Fall of Jose Reyes

[Frayed Knot]

OK, so the subject heading might be a bit dramatic.
Still, age 24 is an odd time to go into a near year-long decline, particularly when it's the power numbers that are taking the biggest hit.

----	BA	OBA	SLG	Walk	IsoP
2006	.300	.354	.487	.054	.187
2007	.288	.361	.425	.073	.137
Since May 1	.274	.374	.391	.070	.117
Since Aug 1	.251	.320	.358	.069	.107
Since Sept 1	.210	.279	.290	.070	.081

To put those power number in a bit of context;
- that .187 from last year is about what Eric Byrnes & Russell Martin are doing now
- this year's power puts him in Freddie Sanchez & Edgar Renteria territory
- and there's only a handful of full-time NL players who have an isolated slugging lower than the .100-.120 level he's been at since April

Then throw in the fact that his speed, in effect, inflates his slugging numbers by turning what would be singles for most players into doubles or doubles into triples and he's really barely slugging at all ... but you probably already knew that.

[Willets Point]

The reports of Jose Reyes' death are greatly exaggerated.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

No they ain 't. He's killing this team.

[metirish]

] OK, so the subject heading might be a bit dramatic.

Not really....


Now that Castillo is hitting in front of him things will improve.....mmmmmmmm...no idea what's going on with him though,maybe starting to believe the hype that surrounds him,lackadaisical play from Jose this season.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Thing is, nobody's getting this memo. MVP speculation articles are still speculating about Reyes taking votes away from Wright. That would be... felonious.

[Willets Point]

Got it. All the best players on this team suck and should be dumped on the ash-heap.

We should be rallying around Reyes, Beltran, & Delgado like Brooklyn Dodgers fans did for Gil Hodges.

You people don't deserve the Mets.

[Benjamin Grimm]

You're really committed to this sunny disposition shtick, aren't you?

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

bluh.

Pretending their problems don't exist ain't the same as rallying around them, and acknowledging their suck ain't akin to throwing anyone of the ash heap.

[metirish]

Willets weren't you the pessimistic one when the team was killing it and now you're the optimistic one when they suck,I have noticed this for the past few weeks.

[Guest sharpie]

Willets is in bizarro mode.

[Willets Point]

I think I'm generally optimistic although sometimes I say negative things in the heat of the moment (or when I'm taking the piss). Anyone who's been watching me post here for the past 7 years probably would recognize me as being in the rah-rah camp. I think the only thing I've been truly negative about is Glavine, and I've eased off on him this season (based on input from you folks).

I also have never been one for scapegoating, making generalizations about a player's character based on their poor play, or booing your own players. I've seen a lot of that here and among Mets fans in general lately and I just don't think its fair.

I think the Mets are going to clinch the NL East in the next week or two. I think they will go deep into the postseason and have a good chance at winning the World Series. I think if they do that Beltran, Wright, Reyes, and Beltran (all players who've been boo'ed, goated, and character assassinated this season) will be key to the victory.

I think there's a lot of weaknesses this team needs to address in all categories, but I don't think turning against our core players is a good way of addressing that.

[metirish]

] I think the only thing I've been truly negative about is Glavine, and I've eased off on him this season.

Yeah point taken.....

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Really? Not that booing your guys is ever right, but I think the players have gotten off pretty easy this year to be honest, and Reyes in particular.

The fans are dying for him to be successful. They hate to boo him. They love him so much they can't even see how much he struggled, which is the point of the post.

I just took the piss myself but that's becaise I drank 1.5 liter bottle of water this afternoon.

[metirish]

I always figured you for a pisser Johnny.

[Willets Point]

As for Reyes:

32 DB's = career high
78 SB's = career high (not to mention MLB leader and Met single season record)
72 BB's = career high (obliterating last years 53 walks. Remember when we criticized Reyes for not walking enough?)
.361 OBP = career high (a lead off hitter who gets on base this often is really killing our team?)
13 IBB = career high (apparently opposing pitchers have not gotten the memo about Reyes' suckage)

Triples are down from last year but Reyes is still second in the NL.

Also his runs, hits and strikeout totals are on about the same pace as last year.

I don't really see the big concern about the power number drop. Beltran, Delgado, and Wright are the power for this offense, and if they're not doing their job I don't think its Reyes job to compensate.

[Guest Kid Carsey]

WP: >>>I think the Mets are going to clinch the NL East in the next week or two<<<

Let's hope they don't wait two.

I think they'll end up winning too, but complaining about the complaining
seems like shouting at the wind to me. They're in the midst of a full fledge
march to a historic demise ... a little fan hysteria is warranted imo.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think it's that .320 since August 1 and that .279 since September 1 that are murder.

[Willets Point]

I'm more bothered by the attacks on individual players (especially when people say it reflects on their character as humans). I think the last five games have been team losses, wouldn't you agree?

[metirish]

Willets Point wrote: I'm more bothered by the attacks on individual players (especially when people say it reflects on their character as humans). I think the last five games have been team losses, wouldn't you agree?

Definitely team losses ,plenty of players not playing as might be expected,Willets what are the personal attacks you are talking about?

[Guest Kid Carsey]

Yeah, and I'm just sayin'. Our optimistic sim-score is generally on the high
side for baseball fans historically.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Willets Point wrote: I'm more bothered by the attacks on individual players (especially when people say it reflects on their character as humans). I think the last five games have been team losses, wouldn't you agree?

Most of them have been team losses.

Last night's, though, falls squarely on Maine's shoulders. The Mets scored 8 runs, and overall played fairly well. Even the bullpen did well, one run over four-plus innings.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

]32 DB's = career high

--yay

]78 SB's = career high (not to mention MLB leader and Met single season record)

--hooray

] 72 BB's = career high (obliterating last years 53 walks. Remember when we criticized Reyes for not walking enough?)

--Down more than 40% since the ASB (47/25)

].361 OBP = career high (a lead off hitter who gets on base this often is really killing our team?)

--He's not getting on at 361, he's averaged getting on @ 361. Since the ASB he's gotten on at 321. That's bad. In September, 279. That's deadly.

[Frayed Knot]

As noted, the point of the post wasn't to tear down Reyes or to assign him the lion's share of "blame" for the recent problems (he wasn't hitting while they were winning 10 of 12 either).

But (also as noted) there has been a disconnect between Jose's image and reality for a while now - something the extrordinary April he had has been covering up. Now this isn't to suggest that this is the start of a years-long and irreversible downward trend, but it does throw some cold water on the idea that these trends were all but assured to point ever upwards for young players.

And, yeah, the power outage does matter; it's a big part of what seperates him from the standard slick fielding/slashing type hitter mold. Since August 1st he's essentially a handful of XBHs (speed?) above what we had when some guy named Ordonez was manning his position.
{Ordonez '99 = .258 / .319 / .317 / .061 / .059}

[Willets Point]

So the better word for this is "slump." Not "catastrophic career collapse."

[Benjamin Grimm]

Definitely.

Wright rebounded from his awful April. Reyes will rebound from this.

When did this slump start? Does it coincide in any way with the Rick Down/Howard Johnson/Rickey Henderson shakeup?

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

whistle whistle whistle

[Frayed Knot]

Well no one ever suggested catastrophic career collapse. I even acknowledged in the opening sentence that the subject heading was overdone for dramatic effect (I hate boring subject headings) and, no, I don't think Jose's season is akin to the last days of the Roman Empire.

But 3/4 of a season is a bit more than a slump and is enough to start wondering if last year was the outlier rather than an upward step on a lengthy ladder.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Perhaps if we close our eyes and wish real hard, it will go away!

[Willets Point]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: Really? Not that booing your guys is ever right, but I think the players have gotten off pretty easy this year to be honest, and Reyes in particular. The fans are dying for him to be successful. They hate to boo him. They love him so much they can't even see how much he struggled, which is the point of the post.

Here's a sampling of commentary on that either attacks Reyes character ("head up the ass" is the favorite way to blame Jose for his slump) and/or blames him for the Mets failures, just from the first two pages. I could find similar for other players:

Sept. 16
Frayed Knot
�Another game like these past two and I'm going to wake up tomorrow morning and get myself a gun.�

Sept. 16
Johnny Dickshot
�His head is so far up his ass I can't see it coming out in time. We're screwed IOW.�

Sept. 16
MFS62
�Maybe that explains it.
His head is up his ass, so his eyes are blocked and he can't see anything.�

Sept. 16
Johnny Dickshot
�You kinda always knew he wasn't going to be a smiling energy machine his whole life. I mean, Kirby Puckett maintained that illusion deep into his career before it came out he was a complete creep all along.�

Sept. 17
Johnny Dickshot
�I think they should send Reyes to Alaska and use that guy at short.�

Sept. 19
Mendoza Line
�Hell, I don't want to think about that. If Reyes can somehow get his head out from up his rear and we can avoid Jorge Motaweis for a few days, this will all be forgotten in two weeks.�

Sept. 19
Johnny Dickshot
�No they ain 't. He's killing this team.�

[Willets Point]

Frayed Knot wrote: But 3/4 of a season is a bit more than a slump and is enough to start wondering if last year was the outlier rather than an upward step on a lengthy ladder.

Edgy already addressed that.

="Edgy DC"]I think it's that .320 since August 1 and that .279 since September 1 that are murder.

So it's six weeks not 3/4's of a season.