Wright to #2 slot looking more likely

[Frayed Knot]

Today's game was at least the 4th or 5th time that Wright has hit 2nd this Spring, more than any other single choice.
Willie insists that nothing's set in stone, but you'd have to figure that it's starting to look like more than just a ST oddity.

Joel Sherman makes an excellent case for it in
today's NYPost, pointing out, among other things;
- LoDuca's relative lack of RBIs depite hitting behind the first player in 19 years to get into scoring position - by himself - over 100 times (via double, triple or steals).
- the # of pitches/AB seen by LoDuca vs Wright (near league lowest vs near team high)

And, of course, by pointing out that Wright's just a plain better hitter.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Good.

[nymr83]

i fully support batting wright 2nd. going into last year i wanted him 3rd but after beltran's huge year i wouldnt want to tamper with him at all. having someone with more patience than loduca probably benefits reyes as well... though one moght wonder if he'll be red-lighted a bit more often with wright at the plate.

[Guest Edgy DC]

While, sure, go Wright, I think it's worth pointing out that Lo Duca did the job to a T last year.

I just think Wright can do everything Lo Duca can do, and better.

[Elster88]

Edgy DC wrote: I think it's worth pointing out that Lo Duca did the job to a T last year.

Really? I disagree. Didn't he have the lowest OBP out of the regulars?

If not then I take back my disagreement.

Why do you think he did the job to a T?

[nymr83]

well thats the point, wright can do better. And i don't expect LoDuca to repeat last year's .318/.355/.428 either, he hadn't had a season that good since 2001. a more reasonable expectation might be his career line of .290/.341/.419....not a big dropoff really, but not what i'd like to see from my #2 hitter.

[Elster88]

I realize Wright can do better. But that doesn't answer the question of how Lo Duca filled the #2 hole to a tee. I thought he did an average to good job. But nothing great.

[Guest Edgy DC]

="Elster88"] ="Edgy DC"]Didn't he have the lowest OBP out of the regulars? Regular Mets by OBP: Carlos Beltran .388 David Wright .381 Carlos Delgado .361 Paul Lo Duca .355 Jose Reyes .354 Jose Valentin .330 Xavier Nady .326 Cliff Floyd .324 He did the job to a T by doing almost everything you can reasonably ask of him. He had his highest OBP since his career year of 2001 He hit for a high average He ran the count deep He put the ball in play, fanning only 38 times, least among Met regulars Despite being a slow contact hitter, he hit into "only" 15 DPs, which, while not good, could have been worse when you consider it He went to right consistently He hit 39 doubles only one fewer than Wright for the team lead eighth highest total in team history despite having his plate appearances limited by his catching duties (no other catcher in team history has hit more than 33) He led all regulars with seven sacrifice hits Now, you may want to dismiss all that as small-ball bullshit, and I won't argue. But neither would I say it wasn't valuable. The Mets may well do better by forsaking the strategy that put him in the two-hole (particularly considering his age), but within the context of that strategy, he did everything you could reasonably ask of him.

Edgy DC Mar 12 2007 12:56 AM

Clarification. A quick check of Splitsville says that 37 of Lo Duca's 39 doubles came as a catcher, as did 32 of Piazza's 33 1998 doubles.

Rockin' Doc Mar 12 2007 07:28 AM

I really like the idea of Wright hitting in the second spot of the order. LoDuca did a far better job in the second slot than I would have imagined him capable of, but Wright is capable of even greater production. Let Moises Alou hit in the five slot and LoDuca can hit in the seven or eight spot.

Frayed Knot Mar 12 2007 09:22 AM

]He [LoDuca] ran the count deep No he didn't. He saw fewer pitches per/AB than any other hitter in MLB last year other than Placido Polanco (or maybe it was Enrico Polazza)

Edgy DC Mar 12 2007 09:29 AM

Yeah, I guess I knew I was guessing on that one and should have pulled it, or at least checked it. It's hard to be a put-the-ball-into-play hitter, and a deep-count hitter. Unless you're one of those foul ball machiines. The other stuff should all check out.

Edgy DC Mar 12 2007 09:36 AM

Where do I find Pitches/PA data?

Frayed Knot Mar 12 2007 09:46 AM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Mar 12 2007 10:00 AM

]Where do I find Pitches/PA data? I got mine from the Sherman piece I linked in the opening post here, but I now realize I quoted it incorrectly. What Sherman actually said was 2nd lowest in MLB among all those hitting in the 2nd slot In general, The Hardball Times has a good sortable stats section which I find easier to use than ESPN's. LoDcua still doesn't place well when compared to all hitters http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&linesToDisplay=100&orderBy=pPerPa&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2006&league_filter%5B%5D=2&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit just not quite as low as I previously said.

Edgy DC Mar 12 2007 09:52 AM

Yeah, well, he beat Adam Everett. Yeah!

metirish Mar 12 2007 11:36 AM

LoDuca was tough to strike out,if that means anything for a #2 hitter..113 for Wright in 592 AB'S - 38 in 512 for LoDuca.

attgig Mar 12 2007 05:04 PM

I don't think strike outs mean as much...more about the counts. pitches/PA gives Reyes more opportunities to steal. question is, does a high strike out, but high p/pa give reyes more opportunities to steal vs a low strikeout, but less p/pa? I like his games played argument the best. if loduca has to sit 40 games out of the year, why mess with the top of the order?

sharpie Mar 13 2007 09:32 AM

Lo Duca batted second yesterday, Wright fifth.

metsmarathon Mar 13 2007 01:06 PM

strikeouts don't move runners. groundouts can. i wonder if there's a way to figure out how many of loduca's groundouts moved a runner as compared to those which resulted in a fielder's choice? and i wonder, then, if he would be more likely to move a runner over than would wright despite wright's higher strikeout ratio...

Edgy DC Mar 13 2007 01:19 PM

I'm certain the data is out there waiting to be garnered and applied.

Frayed Knot Mar 13 2007 01:32 PM

Non-K outs can move runners ... but probably not as often as some fans think. Just looking at Wright's Ks vs LoDuca's: Wright's 113 Ks need to be reduced to 98 just to normalize his ABs to LoDuca's [113 : 592 = 98 : 512], so LoDuca's 38 Ks in 512 ABs is 60 fewer than Wright would have produced. * But only some of those extra 60 "contacts" (21 figuring on Reyes's 35% OBA) would have come with Reyes on base * then eliminate those outs which weren't enough to move up a runner; pop-ups, force-outs, short flys, etc. * and scratch all those that came with two outs * then add in a double demerit for GiDPs which would NOT have occured w/a K ... and you're probably down to single digits. You'd need to go into P-b-P data to figure out how many actually occured. But even if you figure there's some element of skill in it; that a batter like LoDuca can selectively "steer" his productive outs towards those situations where they'd do some good, we're probably not looking at more than a dozen or so more runners moved up via outs as opposed to what a higher K guy would have produced. And is that difference going to make up for the 50 pts of OBA and 100 or more of SLG that you're giving away?

Vic Sage Mar 13 2007 01:40 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 13 2007 01:42 PM

metsmarathon wrote: strikeouts don't move runners. groundouts can. ... they also lead to more DPs, especially when the hitter has Loduca's speed. I'd rather have a hitter LESS likely to ground into DPs behind Reyes, since Reyes can advance bases without a hitter giving himself up to hit behind him. I don't think the increased likelihood of scoring 1 run by moving reyes to 2nd (on a hit and run) or third (on a grounder to the right side) outweighs the loss of a big inning (or even a single run) created by a DP, especially when considering the ability of Reyes to advance himself. And this doesn't even address the potential of a big inning with a hitter like Wright in the 2 hole, rather than the speedless, punchless loduca, or the impact on overall scoring over the course of the season resulting from giving a better hitter more ABs. ON EDIT: DOH! FK beat me to it...

Edgy DC Mar 13 2007 01:40 PM

Well, you're only "giving them away" in the games where the number two hitter bats and the number five batter does not, less than one third of the games, say 28% (when you consider that the hig on-base percentages found in that bridge --- admittedly an estimate). Normalized for the 120 games Lo Duca started, that would be 33.6 at-bats.

Nymr83 Mar 13 2007 04:23 PM

i think the reasons to go with Wright far outweigh the reasons to go with LoDuca... getting better production, getting the better hitter more plate appearences, giving Reyes (when on base) more pitches to run on, getting Wright (who already has more power than Loduca) some juicy fastballs because they are afraid to throw in the dirt or inside with Reyes trying to steal. the only negatives i can see are the strikeout argument that Frayed Knot nicely debunks and the argument that it worked well last year so dont change it.

metirish Mar 13 2007 04:31 PM

I have nothing to back this up with but Wright seems to get to two strikes a lot and quickly,so would that put the brakes on Reyes stealing,or would he just have to steal early in the count?.....maybe I only think that about Wright because I hear it a lot during games.

Nymr83 Mar 13 2007 09:08 PM

i'm not sure theres evidence to back it up, certainly he gets to two strikes alot, because he sees alot of pitches and thus alot of 2-2 and 3-2 counts which arent really a bad thing, by getting there quickly i'd assume you mean 0-2 and 1-2, i can't really speak as to how many of his ABs result in those counts as compared to hitters in general or loduca in particular. i wouldn't expect it to hurt reyes though, because loduca saw very few pitches at all last last year and wright obviously saw enough pitches to strike out and walk 179 times.

Frayed Knot Mar 31 2007 10:29 PM

Sounds like the Wright to #2 experiment is over before it began. Willie has used LoDuca back in his old spot for the last few games now and has apparently said he's going to stick with that decision. Not that it means they'll stay that way through the entire year, but for now the front 5 BO slots will be as they were last season.

iramets Apr 02 2007 03:28 PM

Is the message: "Oh, I can do it. I just don't wanna, and you writers can't make me"?

Frayed Knot Apr 02 2007 04:08 PM

From what I heard/read from writers & talkers during the Spring they were as much against moving Wright as they were for it. Keef & Ronnie boy both lined up for keeping Wright at #5 for instance.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Clarification. A quick check of Splitsville says that 37 of Lo Duca's 39 doubles came as a catcher, as did 32 of Piazza's 33 1998 doubles.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I really like the idea of Wright hitting in the second spot of the order. LoDuca did a far better job in the second slot than I would have imagined him capable of, but Wright is capable of even greater production. Let Moises Alou hit in the five slot and LoDuca can hit in the seven or eight spot.

[Frayed Knot]

]He [LoDuca] ran the count deep

No he didn't.
He saw fewer pitches per/AB than any other hitter in MLB last year other than Placido Polanco (or maybe it was Enrico Polazza)

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, I guess I knew I was guessing on that one and should have pulled it, or at least checked it. It's hard to be a put-the-ball-into-play hitter, and a deep-count hitter. Unless you're one of those foul ball machiines.

The other stuff should all check out.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Where do I find Pitches/PA data?

[Frayed Knot]

]Where do I find Pitches/PA data?

I got mine from the Sherman piece I linked in the opening post here, but I now realize I quoted it incorrectly.
What Sherman actually said was 2nd lowest in MLB among all those hitting in the 2nd slot

In general, The Hardball Times has a good sortable stats section which I find easier to use than ESPN's.

LoDcua still doesn't place well when compared to all hitters
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&linesToDisplay=100&orderBy=pPerPa&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2006&league_filter%5B%5D=2&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit

just not quite as low as I previously said.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, well, he beat Adam Everett.

Yeah!

[metirish]

LoDuca was tough to strike out,if that means anything for a #2 hitter..113 for Wright in 592 AB'S - 38 in 512 for LoDuca.

[Guest attgig]

I don't think strike outs mean as much...more about the counts. pitches/PA gives Reyes more opportunities to steal. question is, does a high strike out, but high p/pa give reyes more opportunities to steal vs a low strikeout, but less p/pa?

I like his games played argument the best. if loduca has to sit 40 games out of the year, why mess with the top of the order?

[Guest sharpie]

Lo Duca batted second yesterday, Wright fifth.

[metsmarathon]

strikeouts don't move runners. groundouts can.

i wonder if there's a way to figure out how many of loduca's groundouts moved a runner as compared to those which resulted in a fielder's choice?

and i wonder, then, if he would be more likely to move a runner over than would wright despite wright's higher strikeout ratio...

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm certain the data is out there waiting to be garnered and applied.

[Frayed Knot]

Non-K outs can move runners ... but probably not as often as some fans think.

Just looking at Wright's Ks vs LoDuca's:
Wright's 113 Ks need to be reduced to 98 just to normalize his ABs to LoDuca's [113 : 592 = 98 : 512], so LoDuca's 38 Ks in 512 ABs is 60 fewer than Wright would have produced.

* But only some of those extra 60 "contacts" (21 figuring on Reyes's 35% OBA) would have come with Reyes on base
* then eliminate those outs which weren't enough to move up a runner; pop-ups, force-outs, short flys, etc.
* and scratch all those that came with two outs
* then add in a double demerit for GiDPs which would NOT have occured w/a K

... and you're probably down to single digits.

You'd need to go into P-b-P data to figure out how many actually occured. But even if you figure there's some element of skill in it; that a batter like LoDuca can selectively "steer" his productive outs towards those situations where they'd do some good, we're probably not looking at more than a dozen or so more runners moved up via outs as opposed to what a higher K guy would have produced.
And is that difference going to make up for the 50 pts of OBA and 100 or more of SLG that you're giving away?

[Vic Sage]

metsmarathon wrote: strikeouts don't move runners. groundouts can. ...

they also lead to more DPs, especially when the hitter has Loduca's speed. I'd rather have a hitter LESS likely to ground into DPs behind Reyes, since Reyes can advance bases without a hitter giving himself up to hit behind him. I don't think the increased likelihood of scoring 1 run by moving reyes to 2nd (on a hit and run) or third (on a grounder to the right side) outweighs the loss of a big inning (or even a single run) created by a DP, especially when considering the ability of Reyes to advance himself.

And this doesn't even address the potential of a big inning with a hitter like Wright in the 2 hole, rather than the speedless, punchless loduca, or the impact on overall scoring over the course of the season resulting from giving a better hitter more ABs.

ON EDIT: DOH! FK beat me to it...

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, you're only "giving them away" in the games where the number two hitter bats and the number five batter does not, less than one third of the games, say 28% (when you consider that the hig on-base percentages found in that bridge --- admittedly an estimate). Normalized for the 120 games Lo Duca started, that would be 33.6 at-bats.

[nymr83]

i think the reasons to go with Wright far outweigh the reasons to go with LoDuca... getting better production, getting the better hitter more plate appearences, giving Reyes (when on base) more pitches to run on, getting Wright (who already has more power than Loduca) some juicy fastballs because they are afraid to throw in the dirt or inside with Reyes trying to steal.
the only negatives i can see are the strikeout argument that Frayed Knot nicely debunks and the argument that it worked well last year so dont change it.

[metirish]

I have nothing to back this up with but Wright seems to get to two strikes a lot and quickly,so would that put the brakes on Reyes stealing,or would he just have to steal early in the count?.....maybe I only think that about Wright because I hear it a lot during games.

[nymr83]

i'm not sure theres evidence to back it up, certainly he gets to two strikes alot, because he sees alot of pitches and thus alot of 2-2 and 3-2 counts which arent really a bad thing, by getting there quickly i'd assume you mean 0-2 and 1-2, i can't really speak as to how many of his ABs result in those counts as compared to hitters in general or loduca in particular.
i wouldn't expect it to hurt reyes though, because loduca saw very few pitches at all last last year and wright obviously saw enough pitches to strike out and walk 179 times.

[Frayed Knot]

Sounds like the Wright to #2 experiment is over before it began.
Willie has used LoDuca back in his old spot for the last few games now and has apparently said he's going to stick with that decision.
Not that it means they'll stay that way through the entire year, but for now the front 5 BO slots will be as they were last season.

[Guest iramets]

Is the message: "Oh, I can do it. I just don't wanna, and you writers can't make me"?

[Frayed Knot]

From what I heard/read from writers & talkers during the Spring they were as much against moving Wright as they were for it. Keef & Ronnie boy both lined up for keeping Wright at #5 for instance.