Jose Reyes Deathwatch

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Okay, we're 19 games into the season, and Jose's been on base in the leadoff spot at a blazing .276 clip, despite which the Mets are playing pretty good ball. If their w-l record were reversed at this point, I think some would be calling for Jose's head, but it's not, so he's okay for now.

That fabled lifetime .311 OBP at season's end, however, is starting to look like a lofty ambition for Jose, and it raises the question of the Mets' long-range plans for young Mr. Reyes.

How long do you keep him in the leadoff spot with no further signs of improved OBP? A month? The whole season? As long as he's under contract?

The larger question is what do you do with signing Jose to a LT contract?(LT being any contract longer than a one-year deal, the advantage to which is that you're locking him up for longer than absolutely necessary, and so committing the Mets to Jose and preventing them from finding another ss/leadoff hitter, but gaining the benefits of his services for longer, too.)

The Mets' general policy has been to play the ostrich here. Do nothing, until Jose injures himself, at which point they try some other option at ss and leadoff. But if you're more pro-active, when do you start thinking that Jose's not cutting it at leadoff and send him to the bottom of the order until his OBP improves?

The answer to that naturally affects your long-range planning as well. No way am I offering a .276 OBP guy with a decent glove at short a whole lot of financial security. I can pick guys like that off trees. The only reason to think of Jose as valuable at this point is in his potential, but potential is not a word I feel comfortable with for years and years and years. After a while I want some results. When is "after a while"?

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

How possible do ya think it is that he was rushed to the majors?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

I don't buy "being rushed to the majors" as a cause of inability, unless the guy was rushed to the majors and then sat on the bench. Games are games, and I think Jose demonstrated clearly that he was the best ss in their system when he was called up (if not before). It's retarded to think that Jose was retarded in his advancement by being handed a starting ss's job in MLB when he was.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Just bustin chops.

I try not to panic over any regular with fewer than 100 PAs and since Reyes gets more of 'em, 150. I forget the precise number, but it's been shown that any batter can bat anything in 70 at-bats.

Contract Schmontract. Wait n see

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Bringing up players young purely benefits them, as it exposes them to a more challenging level of competition.

The only reason to leave someone at a lower level is that he wouldn't be able to compete at the higher one. If you're letting him feed off lesser pitching than he can handle, thenh you're slowing his advancement.

That's from the player's point of view. The club has a motivation in keeping players down on the farm: to delay their FA days as long as possible. If you think some 19 year old has the potential to hit 35 HRs in his late 20s, you don't want him at the MLB level for ages 20-25, when you could lose him.

But that's not what we're discussing in Jose's case, is it? If we had any real signs of OBP potential here, we'd just want him signed to a LT contract in a year or two. But the closer we approach that point, the more likely any sign could be a small sample size deception. For example, say Jose puts in another lousy OBP year in 2006 and also for the first half of 2007, then puts in a pretty good OBP in August and September of 2007. You could sign him to a LT contract at that point, but there's a serious risk that the two month OBP is the aberration. If he starts performing NOW, though and keeps it up for the next two years, you're probably pretty confident in offering that LT contract.

[smg58]

Reyes has five walks in 82 AB's, which while still not good is actually an improvement for him. Right now the bigger problem is hits, which should come eventually. I'm still not sure what Reyes' long-term value is, but there's no reason to answer that question today. And since he's still a few years from free agency, I don't see any need to sign him right now to anything.

[Guest sharpie]

I seem to remember him going into a wicked slump at some point last year - also hitting the ball into the air too often. Those 5 walks are 5 more than he had at a comparable time last season. I agree with smg, the hits will come.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: Bringing up players young purely benefits them, as it exposes them to a more challenging level of competition. The only reason to leave someone at a lower level is that he wouldn't be able to compete at the higher one. If you're letting him feed off lesser pitching than he can handle, thenh you're slowing his advancement.

Totally! People learn fastest when facing the best of the best of the best. It's why when I decide to learn tennis, I'm going to challenge Aggassi mano y mano over and over again until I'm kicking his ass up and down the court. It's why when I was a child, I skipped "Clifford the Big Red Dog" and went straight to "Ulysses." A sound educational method that's woefully underpracticed.

Seriously, we should just bring our best prospects directly from high school (Not college, though. If they've wasted two to four years facing mediocrity in college, then they're already stunted developmentally) into the majors. That would pretty much guarantee the fastest rate of learning for them.

[Benjamin Grimm]

You kinda ignored Bret's second paragraph there, Rotblatt.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: You kinda ignored Bret's second paragraph there, Rotblatt.

Oh, no I didn't.

Jose put up mediocre numbers at best in the minors, a fact which Bret conveniently ignores every time I bring it up.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Minor league totals: .275 AVG/.338 OBP/.401 SLG/.739 OPS

2003 Norfolk (1st time at AAA): .269 AVG/.333 OBP/.356 SLG/.689 OPS

Yep, he had nothing to learn from facing AAA pitchers, that's for sure.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

smg58 wrote: And since he's still a few years from free agency, I don't see any need to sign him right now to anything.

I'm not saying the Mets should. What I am saying is that IF you see a big OBP improvement this year, that (coupled with sustained growth next year) lets you sign him to a LT term at the end of 2007 with some reasonable confidence that you're doing the right thing, you're okay. But every day between now and the end of 2007 that you don't get that big boost in OBP means that you're working with a smaller and smaller sample size, which is increasingly susceptible to error.

It's fine to say "We don't need to sign him for another two seasons," but you need to look at your dwindling basis for signing him at all after 2007. You don't want to be desperately optimistic in committing major resources to someone whose chances of stardom are slim and none.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Reyes won't be eligible for free agency until after 2009. They really don't have to give much thought to a long-term contract for him for a while yet. After 2007 would be the earliest, I think, and that's only if he's a top player at that point. Otherwise, wait until after 2008. If he's mediocre at that point, you can accept the risk of losing him, especially if there's a viable replacement in the pipeline.

For now, just let him play, and let him try to improve his game. There's no point right now worrying about whether he'll be signed for 2012 or beyond.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Rotblatt wrote: Minor league totals: .275 AVG/.338 OBP/.401 SLG/.739 OPS 2003 Norfolk (1st time at AAA): .269 AVG/.333 OBP/.356 SLG/.689 OPS Yep, he had nothing to learn from facing AAA pitchers, that's for sure.

I don't get what you're saying at all, Rot. He hit AAA pitching okay, and obviously has played well enough in MLB to keep his job. If he had a .600 OPS up here, then sure, send him back. But how do you think Jose's numbers in the majors compare to other 20-year-olds and 21-year olds? They're pretty good. He's a major league level talent for longer than he's been an MLB player.

He just isn't improving quickly enough to hang on to a leadoff batter's job.

if you were right, he would have flunked out of the big leagues long ago.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: For now, just let him play, and let him try to improve his game. There's no point right now worrying about whether he'll be signed for 2012 or beyond.

Well, yeah, there's not a lot of options right now, are there? But you need to see some growth at some point, and his fourth MLB season is not too soon. And I'm not talking about growth just to the .311 OBP level, though even that would be nice to see. right now it will take a sustained hot streak just to get him up to MLB average (for all hitters) in OBP, at which point a sustained cool streak might be expected. He's digging himself into a deeper hole with every at bat.

Rotty, what do you suppose is the kind of instruction available at AAA that Jose can't get in the majors? You seem to misunderstand the relationship between AAA and MLB numbers. They're often better at the MLB levels, if the leagues and home parks aren't comparable. All you're looking to see is whether the player can perform adequately at any given level. Once that's established there's no reason for the player to stay at that level, none whatsoever.

[Guest abogdan]

I couldn't agree less. Jose Reyes has not shown that he is a major league ready hitter. He's had over 1300 career PA and put up a career OPS of .694. He has not come close to a major league acceptable OBP since his initial half season in the majors. He's an incredible base runner, but a terrible hitter.

I would suppose there is a lot of instruction available in the minors that isn't available in the major leagues, and maybe more importantly, more opportunities for a player to work on the things he is being taught in a game situation. For one, I would imagine that hitters would be more willing to try new approaches at the plate in game situations more readily at the minor league level than at the major league level. If Norfolk is losing games while Jose Reyes is getting 700 PA appearances a season while he struggles to recognize pitches and regularly hit the top half of the ball, no one will really care. On a team expected to contend for a playoff spot, like the Mets, I could see how management and Reyes would be more reluctant to have him completely revamp his approach to hitting.

It's unrealistic to think, however, that the Mets are going to send Reyes down to Norfolk unless he's there on a rehab assignment. He should be moved to the bottom of the lineup, where his low OBP will do the least amount of damage.

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

There is plenty of time before they have to decide upon a contract.

What I am most concerned about is the number of outs he is making in the leadoff spot. If he can't post an OBP of .315 or better over his next 100 PAs, I fully support a demotion to the 8th spot.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

abogdan wrote: I couldn't agree less. Jose Reyes has not shown that he is a major league ready hitter. He's had over 1300 career PA and put up a career OPS of .694. He has not come close to a major league acceptable OBP since his initial half season in the majors. He's an incredible base runner, but a terrible hitter. I would suppose there is a lot of instruction available in the minors that isn't available in the major leagues, and maybe more importantly, more opportunities for a player to work on the things he is being taught in a game situation. For one, I would imagine that hitters would be more willing to try new approaches at the plate in game situations more readily at the minor league level than at the major league level. If Norfolk is losing games while Jose Reyes is getting 700 PA appearances a season while he struggles to recognize pitches and regularly hit the top half of the ball, no one will really care. On a team expected to contend for a playoff spot, like the Mets, I could see how management and Reyes would be more reluctant to have him completely revamp his approach to hitting. It's unrealistic to think, however, that the Mets are going to send Reyes down to Norfolk unless he's there on a rehab assignment. He should be moved to the bottom of the lineup, where his low OBP will do the least amount of damage.

If you've got a wholly inadequate player leading off 162 games a year, I would contend that you're nowhere near being a contending club. And in that case, why not hold MLB tryout camp all season long? The Mets don't have a clue what they are. They're squandering at bats and starts on players like Reyes and Zambrano and Matsui and Hernandez and Bannister, hoping to see some star quality without a lot of basis for that hope, at least in the short term. But in the short term they're gearing up for serious battle with people like Pedro and Glavine and Cliff Floyd, whom they don't expect to be around when the maybe-babies' development pays off in three or four more seasons.

What this philosophy means, IMO, is to throw out on the field whatever grab-bag of players you've haphazardly assembled, and hope for lightning to strike. Meanwhile, the rubes will continue to believe in this hapless bunch of goofballs, as long as you keep spinning it correctly.

[Centerfield]

What I don't understand about Jose Reyes is how anyone allowed that swing to climb up through the system. He steps in the bucket, gets out on his front foot, and the back foot, instead of staying planted and rotating, slides all over the place. He has a horrible swing. Can we really expect improvement from him as long as he has these mechanics?

As to Bret's questions, I'm with Yancy about pushing off any thought of a long term deal until the end of 2007. Let's see where he is then.

As far as his OBP this year, give him until the All-Star break. If he hasn't straightened himself out by them, move him down in the lineup and hope there's someone worthy of being moved up.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: I don't get what you're saying at all, Rot. He hit AAA pitching okay, and obviously has played well enough in MLB to keep his job. If he had a .600 OPS up here, then sure, send him back. But how do you think Jose's numbers in the majors compare to other 20-year-olds and 21-year olds? They're pretty good. He's a major league level talent for longer than he's been an MLB player. He just isn't improving quickly enough to hang on to a leadoff batter's job. if you were right, he would have flunked out of the big leagues long ago.

I'm saying that Reyes DIDN'T hit AAA pitching okay. For me, I'd like to see exteremly young guys clobber AAA (or AA--I've got no problem promoting people from AA if their numbers are good enough) pitching for about 200 at bats before bringing them up.

Wright's how I'd prefer to see it done. In the AFL in 2004, he was on fire after a decent 2003 campaign in A+. Based on the AFL & a hot spring training, we sent him to AA, where he put up a 1.086 OPS in over 200 AB. We promoted him to AAA, where he posted a .967 OPS in over 100 AB.

We'd seen enough and called him up. Clearly a good call in retrospect, and I'd argue it was the right call at the time as well.

Reyes, on the other hand, kept getting promoted because of his upside, not his results. Now that he's here, he's under pressure to produce, which means he can't spend two months rebuilding his swing or overhauling his approach at the plate.

Sure, I think he'll be able to hack it out and put up average numbers for a short stop, but it just seems like his upside is so much higher.

Of course, it's impossible to say what might have been, but you have to wonder if he would've been able to take that next step had he stayed in the minors . . .

Now, maybe he can take that next step anyway while in the majors, and maybe you're right and bringing him up didn't hurt him at all (aside from the whole 2B debacle). Honestly, think his approach at the plate is better this year, and I think he'll be alright in the long term, but his performance in the bigs since 2003 hasn't given us much reason for hope.

Out of curiosity, I looked at Reyes' PECOTA comps. There are no good matches (meaning similarity scores above 50), but Gary Templeton is the highest (45), followed by Aparicio (35), Larkin (32) and Guzman (28).

Of those, Larkin's the only good offensive player, although Templeton had a few good seasons, and Guzman had a nice 2001.

All were called up young, and all had long careers (well, Guzman's is in question there). Still, not very inspiring, at least from an offensive standpoint.

Anyway, to get back to your main question, drop him down to eighth now. If he gets going, move him back up. If he doesn't, send him to AAA until he does get going.

That's what I'd like to see.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Rotblatt wrote: [ Now that he's here, he's under pressure to produce, which means he can't spend two months rebuilding his swing or overhauling his approach at the plate..

This is the part I don't get. Do the Mets have a better option at ss now? No, no one even close. But they've constructed such a screwed up roster, of used-to-be-greats very expensively playing a WIN RIGHT THIS SECOND game, alongside guys who need to improve over the next few years to be competitive. Only Beltran, Wright and Delgado are in the primes right now, and 3 guys on your squad in their primes isn't going to make the playoffs very often.

Unless they have an option at ss, they have to keep playing Reyes. It's more about putting up the appearance of a playoff team than actually developing Reyes and their other young players. If they decided that Reyes should try batting by holding onto the thick end of the bat, it wouldn't work, not because it's an inherently stupid idea but because it looks like hell to be experimenting and teaching and trying things when we've got a pennant to win here.

[Guest KC]

Let us know when you find baseball nirvana ... leave a peanuts and cracker
jack trail.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: Unless they have an option at ss, they have to keep playing Reyes. It's more about putting up the appearance of a playoff team than actually developing Reyes and their other young players. If they decided that Reyes should try batting by holding onto the thick end of the bat, it wouldn't work, not because it's an inherently stupid idea but because it looks like hell to be experimenting and teaching and trying things when we've got a pennant to win here.

I agree that we can't really send him down unless the bottom truely drops out, and that any experimenting on Reyes will be limited to minor tinkering.

Again, though, I think Reyes will put up average SS offensive numbers, with above average SB numbers. In other words, I don't think he'll be a detriment to the club. I'm just getting increasingly doubtful that he'll be the Jose Reyes we all envisioned in 2002.

I disagree about the whole "appearance of a playoff team" thing--I think they built this team in 2006 to make the playoffs--but I'm sure that comes as no suprise to you . . .

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Rotblatt wrote: any experimenting on Reyes will be limited to minor tinkering. . . .

Examine the reasoning here, please. If Reyes needs major tweaking, why wouldn't he get it? Because of the message that major tweaking sends--we're not competitive this year.

But if he needs major tweaking, he needs it. Packaging that message, spinning it, massaging the image, really doesn't change the truth, does it?

I'd much rather they kept Reyes, but if they want to win the 2006 pennant they need to swap him out for a WIN NOW ss, and fix up some other major weaknesses on this ballclub. There are usually 10-14 clubs that have no chance to play post-season ball, and 10-14 that have a decent chance (come mid-season). Very few clubs limp through the entire year, much less several years in a row, both rebuilding (with major projects in key positions) and going for the gusto (with major salaries in other key positions) simultaneously. The Mets manage to do this year after year, and have no problem saying that they're trying their hardest to do both at once. I don't know if that's a lie or cluelessness, but I do know that it's difficult to ride two horses with only one backside.

[Guest Rotblatt]

BP's Jim Baker weighs in:

]Jose Reyes' appointment with destiny All this talk of batting lines has gotten me to thinking about what Jose Reyes has been up to. Until he did not start Sunday night's game in San Diego, he was on a streak that saw him make at least three outs in 13 consecutive games. This is nothing like a record, but it shows that Reyes has not lost his out-making touch. Last year, he tied for the third-most outs in a single season: Top 10 Outmakers of the 20th & 21st Centuries 551: Omar Moreno, Pittsburgh (1980) 530: Horace Clarke, New York Yankees (1970) 529: Jose Reyes, New York Mets (2005) 529: Omar Moreno, Pittsburgh (1982) 529: Sandy Alomar, California (1971) 528: Omar Moreno, Pittsburgh (1979) 528: Sandy Alomar, California (1970) 526: Juan Samuel, Philadelphia (1984) 525: Alfredo Griffin, Toronto (1980) 521: Bobby Richardson, New York Yankees (1964) 521: Roger Metzger, Houston (1972) This season, Reyes has an outside shot of bettering them all, even the grand imperial high-exalted most excellent master himself: Omar Moreno. A number of things have to align just so for Reyes to make this happen. His manager,Willie Randolph, must continue to ignore all appeals to reason and bat him leadoff. He has to start every day and refrain from walking--something he hasn't had a problem with in the past. He himself has to maintain a batting average in the .240 range. The Mets need to score enough runs so that he's getting five at bats rather than four (or play a lot of extra inning games). Reyes is a high-percentage base stealer, something Moreno was not, so he's not going to generate many outs that way. At this moment, projecting from what Reyes has done in the first 19 games, he would make 554 outs in 2006, a new all-time record. (Yes, it's a small sample size, but it's one that does not run counter to past performance.) There really isn't a lot of play there, so it seems unlikely he'll achieve outmaking immortality in 2006. A more likely eventuality is that he betters last year's total but falls short of Moreno's grandeur. In other words: look out Horace Clarke!

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

I love the nickname "Omar the Out-maker"--you all get the literary reference, of course?

[Guest old original jb]

Reyes shouldn't be anywhere BUT at the top of the lineup.
Last year he was among the elite players in runs scored, despite his less than stellar OBP and a none-too potent middle of the Mets lineup following him. His OPS is nowhere near those of the players around him in the runs scored category. Of course, this is due to his speed. He gives the middle of the lineup the chance to drive him in because when he is on base, he gets into scoring position with regularity.

At the top of the lineup, his batting weakness is less likely to strand runners than at the bottom of the lineup, so his reduced ability to drive in runs will have less negative impact.

Of course, we'd all prefer that he walk more and get more hits, but my guess is that those accomplishments will come with time. In the meanwhile, I think his game is so different from that of other players that it should be judged by different metrics.

[Guest Hillbilly]

How do his ten most similar players look?

[Guest Rotblatt]

Hillbilly wrote: How do his ten most similar players look?

5. Alfredo Griffin (26) - career OPS+ of 67
6. Paul Molitor (24) - 122 OPS+
7. Bert Campaneris (23) - 89 OPS+
8. Johnny Damon (22) - 102 OPS+
9. Sonny Jackson (20) - 73 OPS+
10. Mariano Duncan (17) - 86 OPS+

[Guest Hillbilly]

Rotblatt wrote: ="Hillbilly"]How do his ten most similar players look? 5. Alfredo Griffin (26) - career OPS+ of 67 6. Paul Molitor (24) - 122 OPS+ 7. Bert Campaneris (23) - 89 OPS+ 8. Johnny Damon (22) - 102 OPS+ 9. Sonny Jackson (20) - 73 OPS+ 10. Mariano Duncan (17) - 86 OPS+

Thanks, Rotblatt. We need to remember that he's only 23.