Bet Tracker 2006

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

In the "worries" thread a few weeks ago Bret and Johnny Dickshot had the following exchange:

Johnny Dickshot wrote: I actually think our pitching's gonna be OK, or at least, average. And I also think it can get better easier than could a struggling O. Offense is what worries me. Offense.

Can I get some action here? I say the Mets will score and surrender above league average in 2006. Do you want to take "They'll score and surrender below league average"?

Johnny Dickshot wrote: Sure. Winner gets a beer on the loser.

Here I will track the result of this bet through the year. If you guys have other bets going on you should do this too.

Thru games of April 21:

Runs Scored: 82 (League Average: 84)
Runs Allowed: 57 (League Average 84)

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

I'm not too worried yet. The Mets are (I think even their most ardent fans would agree here) playing better than their final record this year, and more importantly, cold-weather teams playing lots of home games early on always score more runs as the weather heats up. So the two run deficit doesn't bother me too much.

[nymr83]

agreed that they are playing better than their lofty record.
Is that colf-weather thing statistically provable? it seems rather intuitive i was just curious if there are numbers out there.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Nymr83 wrote: agreed that they are playing better than their lofty record. Is that colf-weather thing statistically provable? it seems rather intuitive i was just curious if there are numbers out there.

James ran a study years ago showing how runs scored (or ERA or some damned thing) goes up something like 20% from April to August and then dips again in September. It's a truism, as far as I know, in stat-head circles.

[nymr83]

the hitters tire as hte season goes on, the pitchers don't since they pitch every 5th day, the hitters then crush septmeber call-ups to increase hitting in september.
I'm not saying this is a likely explanation, just an alternative one that doesn't involve the temperature.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Nymr83 wrote: the hitters tire as hte season goes on, the pitchers don't since they pitch every 5th day, the hitters then crush septmeber call-ups to increase hitting in september. I'm not saying this is a likely explanation, just an alternative one that doesn't involve the temperature.

Except hitting doesn't increase in September, it declines. I'm talking empirical findings here, which do not come out of one's ass.


Anyway, the big development I'm pretty confidently waiting on is the mets' inevitable decline, as they face beTter teams, and play on the road more than half their games from here on out. When they play the better teams on the road, they'll find playing .667 ball isnt so easy. So far their Pythagorean figures are fairly steady: according to Pythagorus, they should have won about 10.2 games and lost about 4.8, which is just about what they've done on the field so far.

[nymr83]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: Nymr83 wrote: the hitters tire as hte season goes on, the pitchers don't since they pitch every 5th day, the hitters then crush septmeber call-ups to increase hitting in september. I'm not saying this is a likely explanation, just an alternative one that doesn't involve the temperature. Except hitting doesn't increase in September, it declines. I'm talking empirical findings here, which do not come out of one's ass.

i read what you said backwards, my point is still the same, do these studies link scoring to TEMPERATURE or just to the calendar?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Considering that the lowest scoring takes place in April and September, and the highest in July and August, I'd say temperature. Probably if you could break it down by game time temperature (I'm sure someone has done the work), it would be even more direct a connection.

[nymr83]

Proposition:
Assuming that Kaz Matsui gets 400 plate appearences he will not even match his .272/.331/.396 line from his rookie year.

I'll bet on whoever wins 2 out of the 3 categories or just the .727 OPS.

If i win the loser must put "Matsui Sucks" in their signature line for the entire offseason, I will put a similiar message of their choosing in mine if i lose. i'm also willing to bet $$ (a baseball book, beer at a game, whatever)

i have to give Elster first crack at this as Matsui's biggest defender, but anyone else is welcome within reason (i'm not gonna have 8-9 bets out there.)

[Elster88]

Sounds like a good bet. I'd prefer not to mess with signature lines, but a beer sounds good. If we never happen to meet at a game we can just send the $5 over the web.

I'll take the 2 out of 3 bet.

[Elster88]

I'd like to reiterate though, that Kaz's performance has nothing to do with my stance on booing.

[nymr83]

Elster88 wrote: I'd like to reiterate though, that Kaz's performance has nothing to do with my stance on booing.

noted, but i'll take the bet all the same.

[Elster88]

Nymr83 wrote: Proposition: Assuming that Kaz Matsui gets 400 plate appearences he will not even match his .272/.331/.396 line from his rookie year.

Just to bust balls, but this bet is showing a lack of guts on your part, or a lack of faith in Matsui-suckage. If you're so sure he sucks, why not go with last year's line? Or split the difference?

.272/.331/.396 is not a half bad line.

Anyways, I'm not trying to weasel my way out of the bet. It's only $5, and I think he will better that line. But if you're betting that a guy sucks, I'd go with lower numbers. Maybe you are finally realizing that Kaz can hit?

Just busting balls here. No need to RedLight me.

[nymr83]

272/.331/.396 is not a half bad line.

its a terrible line considering what he was signed to do. you can't just lower the standards for him as he lowers his play.

his career line is .265/.320/.380, which sucks, and there'd be little point in my betting that because he could go .270/.325/.360 and "beat" the target line while still sucking.

(just for reference his career line in Japan was .309/.362/.486, now thats some nice numbers, and thats what we paid for)

[Elster88]

The concept of "what he was signed for" is another that is fairly silly. But I've argued it elsewhere and don't feel like getting into it.

[nymr83]

just to avoid this getting archived i'll give a quick update-

Matsui (through may 21st, 101 AB, 109 PA)- .238/.274/.317

[duan]

in related 2b men bets

myself ands sal's was about Ty Wigginton, whom I predicted would finish with an OPS of .750 or less if he got at least 450abs/475 pas

Ty Wigginton
156 abs, .296 OBP, .481 SLG

OPS: .777

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Updating the Dickshot-Sabermetric bet above. through May 21:

Met RS 214
League average 209

Met RA 182
League Average 207

If it ends this way we'd have to buy our own beers.

[nymr83]

stupid interleague games screw up the average scored/allowed

[Edgy MD]

This thread lives too.

[duan]

greetings all - i'll post some pics of the wedding later .....

but to matters at hand ...
Ty Wigginton
Games 83 Plate Apperances 306 OBP .299 SLG .454
OPS .753

...

Wiggy actually dipped below .750 from June 28th till July 3rd but then he went 4-6 with 3 homers over two nights.

Looks like this one will go to the wire!

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Wiggy broke his hand today after getting hit by a Shawn Chacon pitch in the MFY drubbing, looks like he'll be out for a long while.

266 /.314/.477/.790

[Elster88]

Shocker.

[Edgy MD]

Ty Wigginton has an OPS of .792, but is sitting at 374 at-bats and 409 plate appearances.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=421064

Bad news for duan is that the D-Rays just released their firstbaseman Travis Lee, which should give Wiggum more PT.

The Mets, meanwhile are second in the National league in runs yielded and second in runs scored. I think that suggests a draw for Dickshot.

[Edgy MD]

Wiggy is at .833. How many PA did he need to qualify?

[Edgy MD]

Kaz Matsui needs a golden finish to his season to carry this bet for Elster. He's at .269 / .313 / .370 // .683.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Edgy DC wrote: Wiggy is at .833. How many PA did he need to qualify?

450abs/475 pas!

He's got 436 ABs and ~468 PAs... he'll miss qualifying by a game or three.