Looper to St. Louis

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, but Mets counter with the trends showing a decline in perfomance, surgery, and a displacement from the closer's role, as well as the unlikeliness that he'd find another closing opportunity on the open market.

He got 4.5 mills per (on average) on the open market. I don't expect he'd get 75% more with an arbitrator, who would be looking at existing contracts, not just the ones from the last few weeks.

[Guest abogdan]

The role that the team envisions for Looper in the upcoming year won't be considered by the arbitrator. Here's what they consider according to the CBA:

]The criteria will be the quality of the Player�s contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal), the length and consistency of his career contribution, the record of the Player�s past compensation, comparative baseball salaries (see paragraph (13) below for confidential salary data), the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player, and the recent performance record of the Club including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance

An arbitrator has to decide between either the team or the player's offer. The Mets would come in with something in the $4-5 range, Looper in the $7-8 range. The arbitrator then determines the midpont between these two salaries. After hearing from both parties, the arbitrator decides what he thinks the market value for that player is. If it's higher than the midpoint, the player gets his money. If it's lower, the team wins.

The B.J. Ryan salary will be a tough comparable for a team to overcome, especially if Looper asked for less than Ryan is making per year.

[Frayed Knot]

Fear of a big arbi number is the logical explanation of why they didn't offer him the choice of staying. They had he locked in (via an option) for $5mil and chose not to pass on that so they certainly viewed $7 or so as a ridiculous price to pay for a set-up man. Personally I'd find it hard to argue that Looper deserved a doubling of his salary (he made $3.5 in '05) coming off a bad and injured year but I guess they didn't want to leave that to chance.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Contribution during the past season: disappointing and worsening as the season progressed.

Overall performance: barely adequate for a reliever and beneath that expected of a closer for any team.

Special qualities of leadership: not a factor.

Public appeal: negative.

The length and consistency of his career contribution: modest length and spotty consistency.

The record of the Player�s past compensation: Coming off a very modest contract.

Comparative baseball salaries: Bullpen salaries are rising, but the relief pitchers signed in previous seasons would also come into account.

The existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the
Player: A serious physical defect is established; I'll give him a pass on any speculations as to any mental defects. I should be so lucky.

And the recent performance record of the Club including
but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication
of public acceptance: And I think Loops should give the Mets a pass by not suggesting that attendance has improved because of him.

[seawolf17]

And I'll play the part of Bean Stringfellow:

Contribution during the past season: 28 saves, good for tenth in the NL.

Overall performance: 3.94 ERA, only a half run higher than his career average, and a .271 BAA and 1.47 WHIP, only slightly higher than his career average as well.

Special qualities of leadership: Agreed, not a factor.

Public appeal: What's more appealing than a closer coming in, fans on their feet, and shutting down the opposition in a big spot?

The length and consistency of his career contribution: 2-0 career postseason, including one WS ring. Came off a 2004 season with the Mets that saw him post a career high 158 ERA+.

The record of the Player�s past compensation: Agreed, coming off a very modest contract. Highly underpaid for a guy with almost 90 saves in the past three years.

Comparative baseball salaries: Bullpen salaries are rising, but the relief pitchers signed in previous seasons would also come into account.

The existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the
Player: Coming off an injury which affected his performance, but he's now completely healed.

And the recent performance record of the Club including
but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication
of public acceptance: I'm not saying Looper sells tickets, but this club was very good last year, and Looper led the team in saves.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Some highly selective data right there.

[nymr83]

] 28 saves, good for tenth in the NL.

thats a negative not positive, when you consider thee are 16 teams ad several who had unsettled closer situations all year that puts him into the bottom third of NL closers

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Well, he's not trying to be impartial. He's trying to win some money for his client.

[Elster88]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: ="soupcan"] Message me the link please, I'm curious about that. And so, on a gloomy Friday morning, the sad and sordid story of Soupy's fall from the pinnacle of the insurance game to a stretch in federal prison for trafficking in internet porn began...

LOL.

Dammit Bret, stick around a while this time. No more running off.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I thuoght we were working from the arbitrator's point of view.

[Frayed Knot]

]And I'll play the part of Bean Stringfellow:

[Guest Edgy DC]

Sure, but I was asking "What would an arbitrator be working with that he or she would conclude that Braden Looper was worth $7-8 million?"

Not, what kind of flimsy case could be made.

I don't think that's much of a seven million dollar argument, let alone, eight.

But, of course, the Mets avoid aribitration religiously.

[Guest abogdan]

Simple $8 million argument:

Braden Looper: Age 31; 7 major league seasons; 108 career saves, 3 consecutive 28+ save seasons, top ten in NL saves for three straight years, 3.57 career ERA, lower than league average ERA in every major league season, exceptional post season performance.

Comparable player: B.J. Ryan: Age 30, 6 major league seasons, 42 career saves, only 1 year with more than 3 saves, 3.54 ERA. Salary (contract signed this offseason): $9.5 million.

Only other players to have 20+ saves for last three seasons with 5 or more major league seasons of experience: Mariano Rivera, Jason Isringhausen, Billy Wagner, Jose Mesa. Average 2006 salary: $8.028 million. If you remove Mesa as an aberration because of his advanced age, the average goes to $9.87 million.

[Guest old original jb]

]Braden Looper: Age 31; 7 major league seasons; 108 career saves, 3 consecutive 28+ save seasons, top ten in NL saves for three straight years, 3.57 career ERA, lower than league average ERA in every major league season, exceptional post season performance

Sure, but he's still...(say it with me)

Looper.

[smg58]

Looper probably could have gotten 7 or 8 million in arbitration. The Mets also could have picked up his option (for $5M) if they really wanted to, and that would have made more sense than arbitration. But righty set-up guys who can post an ERA in the 3's aren't too difficult to find. We already have Heilman. I don't see why Padilla couldn't keep his ERA below 4 for a full season. Heath Bell has the raw skill, but needs an opportunity. If you could count on Looper pitching like he did in 04 then you could still make an argument for him, but he's only been that good once.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Omar had commented much earlier this offseason that he felt Looper's option was inappropriate for what they wanted to pay a setterupper. I don't think he had designs to pay big for anyone but a closer this year and so far that's the case.

With Padilla, Bell, Wylie, Moreno (?), Yates (?), Fortunato (?), McGinley (?), Hamulack (?), Ring (?), Perisho (?), Soler (?) & Heilman/Seo/Zambrano in camp, + whoever else shakes out of the nontenders with minor-league deals (Alfonseca, etc), I think we can cobble together another 'pen, hopefully quicker than last year.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The point is well taken that the Mets had a chance to re-up him at five. After they didn't, the market exploded (partially their own fault) and he became more espensive. If there was a chance that the arbitrator would award him over five (and my opponents clearly argue that there was a chance the arbitrator could have awarded him a good deal more than five, then the Mets had to pull out, I guess.

Thanks for clarifying.