Rest of the Bullpen - 2006

[smg58]

Bradford can do the job against righties, but he's awful against lefties. If you're going with seven relievers, maybe, but no way with six.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: The Hardball Times is optimistic about the future of Heath Bell (2nd half of the article)

The folks at Hardball Times might be optimistic about the immediate future of Heath Bell but they seem to think Juan Padilla was was a bit "lucky" last year.

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's a pretty useful analysis, and I hope the Mets see it.

Not that Shades hasn't earned a return trip, but a repeat performance shouldn't be expected.

Using that statistic, for comparison, I tried to compare his luck factor to another onanother lucky stiff, Doug Sisk, but I couldn't find anywhere to glean his number of fly balls yielded:

Juan Padilla 2005: (BABIP + (3 * (HR/FB)) + (1-LOB%)) = (.219 + (3 * (0)) + (1-.821)) = .398

Doug Sisk 1984: (BABIP + (3 * (HR/FB)) + (1-LOB%)) = (.246 + (3 * (1/

FB

)) + (1-.799)) =

??

Whatever that FB number is, I don't think Sisk can get possibly get a lower number here, which makes Padilla's season seem even more unlikely. One factor in luck not accounted for in this formula is the percentage of times a double play is turned when a pitcher gets a ground ball in a DP situation --- seemingly a specialty (lucky or not) of Sisk's.

[smg58]

Padilla's career ERA (for two seasons, roughly translating to one full season of work) is 4.07, and that's probably an accurate indication of where he'll be if the strikeouts don't improve. That being said, Padilla's K/BB in AAA suggests we'll see better in that regard as he pitches more on this level. I don't think anybody sees a one-something ERA in 2006 as realistic, but 3.50 is within his reach.

[Diamond Dad]

With a lefty as your closer, having that lefty set-up guy becomes a luxury that you can use in the 7th or even 6th inning. If you get to a key situation in the 8th, you can bring in Billy the Kid.

I like Heilman as the set up guy, who can stay in and get a save once in a while. Don't mess with him and put him back in the rotation. He was doing fine in the pen.

Like Shades, and would rather see kids (Ring, Strayhorn) get a shot at those middle innings jobs rather than overpaying for some "veteran" who wasn't good enough to keep his job somewhere else.

HATE Taverez.

Like Bradford, even against lefty hitters in a 6th or 7th inning slot. Lots of grounders.

Love the idea of talking about the '06 season already . . .

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't think Kole is at the top of any lists. He was demoted to St. Lucie following surgery, and had a lousy spring and a lousy fall, but pitched very well in June and July ("...but never at dusk" -- Steve Martin). He claims his stamina caved in and he will likely spend 2006 establishing some durability. He was hittable most of the year, but he's still youngish.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

BRADFORD HEADS TO METS' BULLPEN

By JOEL SHERMAN

The Mets have all but completed a one-year contract with Chad Bradford in hopes the sidewinder can rediscover his health and ability to dominate righty hitters in 2006.

Bradford, who will receive a contract for between $1 million and $1.5 million, had back surgery and missed the first half of last season. When he returned, pitching for the A's and Red Sox, he failed to overwhelm righties as he had in the past. Righties batted .282 against Bradford in 2005 after previously managing to hit just .220.

Nevertheless, Bradford still did not allow a homer to a righty batter, and has permitted just 10 homers in 835 at-bats against righties in his career. However, his funky motion does not deceive lefties, who have hit .319 against him during his career. He is a matchup reliever, but the Mets have no sure-thing lefties to serve as a complement.

The Mets have two inexperienced southpaw relievers, Tim Hamulack and Royce Ring, expected to compete in spring training with veteran castoffs Pedro Feliciano, Darren Oliver and Matt Perisho for the lefty slots.

*

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm nervous. Without checking, I'm guessing that'll be the first Chad in Mets history.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Is this to be a major- or minor-league deal? Didn't Bradford just get released? (On edit: Non-Tendered.)

[Frayed Knot]

For that kind of money it's almost shirley a major league deal.
There'd also be too many potential other suitors to get him with just a minor league or "split" contract.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Maybe. The Mets signed Karim and Shane for approximately $850,000 and $650,000, I think, but kept them off the roster until they broke camp. How high can a minor league deal go? Is there a limit?

[Frayed Knot]

An official limit? I doubt it.
More like a practical one -- although I suppose it's possible that he signed a minor league deal with the understanding that it'll be made ML when enough other paper shuffling goes through. Like I said, I'd be surprised if he didn't have enough other options to at least get himself a guaranteed salary for next season.

[smg58]

Like I said before, I'm OK with Bradford if the Mets go with seven relievers, but I don't see there being room for a righty specialist if the Mets carry only six. At this point we have Wagner, Heilman, Bell, Padilla, Bradford, Zambrano, and one more lefty, but if we go with seven then Diaz, Nady, and Franco are competing for two spots. Something's gotta give somewhere.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

You gotta love this though:

[Guest Edgy DC]

Certainly I dig anybody who brings it like Jenny Finch.

Pitfalls primarily include (a) his lesser effectiveness against righties of late, ( rumors (related to a) of him tipping his pitches by changing his arm angle, © the luxury of investing a roster spot in a ROOGy, and (d) the famed blocking-the-kids issue.

Omar's willingness to cut chaff last year suggests to me that (d) is less of an issue, perhaps, then it might have been in the past. Sometimes, the greatest issue isn't the vets blocking the prospects so much as the major league journeymen blocking the minor league journeymen like Padilla, Parra, and Santiago.

There's also (e) his goatee.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: (a) his lesser effectiveness against righties of late, .

I think that, as well as his changing arm angle, has been attributed to coming back from an injury. He couldn't find his arm groove, plus he may not have had his full strength. Also, I feel that he may need a Peterson "tune up" of his delivery from Peterson, under whom he had his best success.

Later

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

official release. Gotta say he'll have a heckuva different look than Billy Wagner.

Mets sign Chad Bradford
12/28/2005 4:07 PM ET
MLB.com

The New York Mets today signed 31-year old right-handed relief pitcher Chad Bradford to a one-year Major League contract.

Bradford, 6-5, 203 pounds, was 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 21 games with the Red Sox in 2005. Chad began last season on Oakland's Disabled List. He underwent lower back surgery in March. Chad made nine minor league rehabilitation appearances between June 24th and July 12th before being traded to Boston for outfielder Jay Payton on July 13th.

In his major league career, the Jackson, MS native has pitched with the White Sox, A's and Red Sox and has a combined 23-16 record and seven saves with a 3.49 ERA in 325 games.

"Chad is a veteran guy who has had success in the post-season," said Mets General Manager Omar Minaya. "He brings valuable experience to our bullpen."

Last season for Boston, Bradford did not allow a run in 23 of his 31 appearances. He only gave up three extra-base hits (two doubles and a home run) in 104 batters faced.

Bradford pitched with the White Sox in parts of 1998, 1999 and 2000 and was with Oakland until his trade to the Red Sox. Chad appeared in at least 68 games each season from 2002-2004.

"New York is a great situation for me," said Bradford. "I worked with Rick Peterson in Oakland and I know what he can do. With all the off-season additions, I'm sure the Mets will be contending for a playoff spot and I want to do all I can to help."

In eight post-season appearances with the White Sox (2000) and the Athletics (2001-2003), he has not allowed a run in 8.1 innings.

For his career, righthanded batters have a .225 (188-834) average against Bradford. Chad has permitted 10 home runs in 834 at-bats against righthanded batters lifetime, an average of one home run per 83.4 at-bats.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Probably a better investment than Julio Franco will be.

[Guest Edgy DC]

He grew up in Jackson, MS, so his hometeam might well have been the Jackson Mets.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

According to Moneyball, Bradford's high school coach, "Moose" Perry, who taught him the sidearm delivery, was also the chapel leader for the Jackson Mets, where he encountered Billy Beane among others.

The chapter also reprints a great essay Bradford wrote when he was 8 years old:

If I were A grown up
I would be a baseball player
And I would play for the Dodgers.
I hope to play for the Cardinals too.
I hope to play for the Oriole too
And for all the teams I would
Play shotestop.

[Frayed Knot]

Now we just need the LOOGY equivalent of him ...

Brad Chadford come on down!!

[Centerfield]

Brad Chadford goes by the name of Mike Myers, who is now a MFY...

[Guest Edgy DC]

Kewl scouting report.

[MFS62]

The scouting report was interesting.
We have been told by baseball analysts, from Garagiola through McCarver to Kiner that lefty batters like the low inside pitch, so they can "drop the head of the bat on the ball and drive it". Yet 18% of the strikes he threw to lefties were low and inside. Another 7% of his pitches were low, inside and out of the strike zone. IMHO, unless you have overpowering stuff, that is just tempting fate.
By contrast, we've been told that righty batters " like the ball up" . He seemed to keep the ball down pretty well against them.
Those locations tend to confirm his L/R splits.
If he can adjust his thinking against lefties, maybe he can be suitable for more than a ROOGY role.


AND, according to NESN, and intimated by Ed Coleman on WAFN when he was hosting on ESPN yesterday, the Mets are close to signing Julian Tavarez.

Later

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Isn't a right-handed pitcher less likely to be in an "only one guy" situation.

While it's relatively rare to see back-to-back lefties in the lineup, I'd guess it's pretty common to see two or three or more righties in a row. And there isn't always a left-handed pinch hitter available on the bench.

I think a pitcher who's generally limited to facing right-handed batters will usually stay in a game longer than one who's limited to left-handed batters.

Which is probably why you see more LOOGYs than ROOGYs.

[MFS62]

You're right about the lefty/ righty mix in most lineups. But when you look at Bradford's historic splits, it appears that he might be pulled if a lefty batter came up against him.
But, as you said, the odds are he would be facing more than just one batter based on the numbers of righties in most lineups.

Later

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

post reporting mets on verge of trading a package headed by either Heilman or Seo to Tampa for Baez:

http://www.nypost.com/sports/mets/mets.htm

I hate this if it is Heilman. Dislike less, but still dislike if it is for Seo. I would love it if it was for Zambrano ....

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

It's also the New York Post.

I'll believe it when I see it somewhere else.

[Frayed Knot]

Doesn't sound like something I'm in favor of mainly because it doesn't really "solve" much, it merely deals pitching depth away to get pitching depth.
Baez is a nice pitcher - although I could do w/o the almost 4 BBs per/game - but how much of an upgrade is this really, especially if we're talking about Heilman or Seo as the centerpiece of a "package" to get him?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Depends on what you think of Lugo and his .362 2005 OBP. Downside is that Lugo is the same age as Matsui.

I'm really OK with the prospect of Matsui batting eighth, and having four potential replacements ready to go in Hernandez, Keppinger, Lambin, and Baldiris.

The Mets want an experienced reliever to add to their pen, they should probably deal their extra experienced starter in Zambrano.