Manny to the Mets is an AWFUL idea

[Willets Point]

I'm FULL of AWE regarding the trade for Manny.

[Guest Edgy DC]

This should be obvious, but I'd say no, Olerud is not the best Met ever, he's a good object lesson that you can leave a nice flavor if you arrive in town just as you've put your growing pains behind you, at your peak, and leave before you start do dramatically decline. And, if you're a hitter, it's good to do so during an offensive upsurge throughout the league.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Edgy DC wrote: This should be obvious, but, no, Olerud is not the best Met ever, he's a good object lesson that you can leave a nice flavor if you arrive in town just as you've put your growing pains behind you, at your peak, and leave before you start do dramatically decline. And, if you're a hitter, it's good to do so during an offensive upsurge throughout the league.

John Olerud is the best New York Met to ever have his name used in my CPF tag. He just slighty edged out Frederick Owned.

[Guest KC]

He's the 35 best Met ever, and will likely drop when the 2005 rankings are done.

http://www.kcmets.com/CPFRankingProj/RankNu04.pdf

[Frayed Knot]

Actually, none of the active guys are close enough to Johnnie O. to catch & pass him this year, and it quite possibly won't happen after '06 either.
Cracking the top 40 ain't easy and JO's 3 NYM seasons were so impressive that he remains the top ranked CPF player with 4 or fewer years at Shea.

[nymr83]

Edgy DC wrote: This should be obvious, but I'd say no, Olerud is not the best Met ever, he's a good object lesson that you can leave a nice flavor if you arrive in town just as you've put your growing pains behind you, at your peak, and leave before you start do dramatically decline. And, if you're a hitter, it's good to do so during an offensive upsurge throughout the league.

he is the best Met ever on a per-year basis in my mind. every other great met hitter had some BAD years here to go with the good.

[Guest KC]

>>>Actually, none of the active guys are close enough to Johnnie O. to catch & pass him this year<<<

I knew I was typing out of my ass when I said it ... I always get caught.

[Guest abogdan]

Going by Baseball Prospectus' long term Pecota projections from last season, they had Manny being worth 55.5 VORP in 2005, declining steadily to 45.9 in 2006, 2007 in 36.3 and 26.3 in 2008. Manny actually had a VORP of 68.6 in 2005, so if anything you would probably want to adjust those long term projections upwards a few ticks.

Cameron, was projected at 24.4 in 2005, 13.3 in 2006, 12.9 in 2007 and 8.9 in 2008. Cameron ended 2005 at 22.5, pretty much in line with his projection.

Even without increasing the projections because of Manny's better than expected 2005, a move from Cameron to Manny would add 73.4 runs to the Met offense over what a replacement player would give them. Now, this does not take into account defense, which will obviously favor Cameron. But there's no way Cameron will save the Mets 70+ more runs than Manny would defensively.

I'd much rather see the Mets take on Manny's contract than commit to $33 million over the next three years to a soon to be 35 year old relief pitcher.

[Elster88]

Frayed Knot wrote: Maybe that he's already overpaid

It's not my money

]- and that he's not going to suddenly start getting better at age 34

He doesn't need to get better, just stay roughly the same or decline only slightly.

]- and that his defense - oh yes it IS that bad - will pop up even more as he goes from the smallest LF in baseball to one of the larger ones

True enough. But he's not the worst outfielder ever. I've seen him make nice plays from time to time.

]- and that we don't have the luxury of the DH to hide him

I don't think Boston DH'ed him either.

]- and that he considers running out hits and grounders as something to do only on an occasional basis

This is of course not unique to Manny.

I agree with seawolf. I like bats. Our offense needs a big bat.

[Guest HappyRecap]

Whoever posted about how he is a .314 hitter hasn't seen the last few years. And to compare, Piazza is still a .311 hitter for his career but in no way do you think of him as that. Same with Manny.

Someone else posted Cameron for Manny straight up if it was a salary dump situation. That would be liveable but giving up anything else is ludicrous.

HappyRecap

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yes, Manny hasn't DH'd as much the last three years after being a DH more than half his time his first few years.

Not because his fielding has improved, but because Boston has an even more frightening defensive player in David Ortiz.

He's unlikely to improve at this point in his career.

[Frayed Knot]

"It's not my money"

No, but it's the team's money which is, of course, what we're talking about here. On a base level I don't care what kind if money these guys make ... except that a contract that size simply has to affect what other moves can be made - and the fact that the team that already has that contract (and is virtually printing money up there) has decided on several occasions that having the $20mil/per is better than having him. 29 other teams came to that same conclusion when he was offered on waivers 2 years back.




"He doesn't need to get better, just stay roughly the same or decline only slightly."

The point is to try and avoid those overblown dot-com era deals rather than pick one up just as the player reaches the age where he's likely to move from overpaid to vastly overpaid as he advances through his mid-30's.



"I don't think Boston DH'ed him either."

Not much recently due to Ortiz, but at least they'd have the option to do so as a way to hide his flaws over the next 3 seasons. We'd have no such out.




" [not running out hits] is of course not unique to Manny."

No, but he could be the worst offender in MLB



"I like bats. Our offense needs a big bat."

And if he comes at a big enough discount he's something to consider.

[Elster88]

="Frayed Knot"]"It's not my money" No, but it's the team's money which is, of course, what we're talking about here. On a base level I don't care what kind if money these guys make ... except that a contract that size simply has to affect what other moves can be made - and the fact that the team that already has that contract (and is virtually printing money up there) has decided on several occasions that having the $20mil/per is better than having him. 29 other teams came to that same conclusion when he was offered on waivers 2 years back.

Yeah. Maybe with only three years left though the Mets will change their mind. If we can get him at around 15 mil. per year I think it would work. Replaces Piazza's contract and there is still enough left to do some things.

[Guest rpackrat]

]Whoever posted about how he is a .314 hitter hasn't seen the last few years.

Yes, you've got us there. His batting average over the last 3 years is only .309, not .314.

[nymr83]

his OBP and SLG both put Mets players to shame. he'd become the best hitter in the NL East the moment he arrived and probably 2nd in the entire National League (Pujols) 3rd if Bonds plays the whole year reasonably healthy.

[Elster88]

You know damn well that David Wright is the best hitter in baseball.

[nymr83]

not yet...soon...