Willie: Seo Not Guaranteed 2006 Rotation Spot

[Elster88]

Geez, you're still on this kick?

]for that matter, on a per-start basis, Seo beats out even Pedro

Which is why you should take the per-start basis with a grain of salt and recognize (as you did) that it's a small sample size.

]Seo kicks Glavine up and down the block--for that matter, on a per-start basis,

I bet over the last two combined years the numbers are a lot closer.

There are plenty of things to bash Willie over. His 2006 rotation is not one of them. At least, not yet.
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This post had the designation 149) Willie Mays

[Guest Rotblatt]

Elster88 wrote: WATP that intrigued me: Floyd, Zambrano/Traxxxx and Milledge for Manny.

I hate that idea. We'd be giving up WAAAAY too much for Manny, IMO. His contract is so damn expensive--and the Sox pitching in such poor shape--that Floyd & Zambrano/Trax alone should be good enough to net Manny AND some money to offset the salary difference. Hell, I'd probably insist that we get Shoppach as well.

Milledge should be untouchable unless we get blown away by an offer for a YOUNG, relatively inexpensive star. Adam Dunn, I'm looking at you.

[Elster88]

It definitely is a TITTS trade. I don't see where Milledge is going to play. We have this guy playing center for another six years (gulp). Besides, if you can get a guy who knocks in 140 a year, you should be willing to give up the jewels in your system. I know Manny's getting older, but it'd be nice to have a slugger on the team.
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This post had the designation 148) George Stone

[smg58]

Elster88 wrote: It definitely is a TITTS trade. I don't see where Milledge is going to play. We have this guy playing center for another six years (gulp).

This is a big reason why the Manny for Beltran talk got started in the first place.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]That's bullshit. It's also unsurprising, given Willie's previous comments and his baffling attachment to "proven" veterans like Cairo, Ishii, DeJean, Graves, etc.

Isn't this highly distorted?

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Elster88"]Geez, you're still on this kick? ]for that matter, on a per-start basis, Seo beats out even Pedro Which is why you should take the per-start basis with a grain of salt and recognize (as you did) that it's a small sample size.

Small sample size or not, Seo is ranked 64th among all pitchers (starting or otherwise) in Value Over Replacement Player (which is a net statistic). That's more valuable than Tom Gordon, Billy Wagner, Mike Mussina & Kris Benson.

Let me reiterate that: Seo has been more valuable to our team than Kris Benson despite starting less than half the games Benson has.

]Seo kicks Glavine up and down the block--for that matter, on a per-start basis,

]I bet over the last two combined years the numbers are a lot closer.

Past Three Years

Glavine has averaged 1.03 VORP/S (0.69 in 2003, 1.27 in 2004, 1.14 in 2005)
Seo has averaged .96 VORP/S (0.81 in 2003, 0.40 in 2004, 2.42 in 2005)

The 3-year average is pretty close, but Glavine HAS been better over that span. It's worth noting, though, that Seo's bested him in VORP/Start in two out of the last three year. Still, given that Seo's only 28, BUT that Glavine has been dominant this second half, I'd probably call my expectations for 2006 a push. Okay, well I wouldn't--I think Seo will be better if given the chance--but I could see how a reasonable person could.

Let's look at Benson now:
Benson has averaged 0.58 VORP/S over the past three years (-.03 in 2003, 0.72 in 2004, 0.82 in 2005)

So why, exactly, is Benson getting the nod over Seo?

]There are plenty of things to bash Willie over. His 2006 rotation is not one of them. At least, not yet.

Sure, but he's given us every reason to worry about the choices that he'll make next year.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Edgy DC wrote: ]That's bullshit. It's also unsurprising, given Willie's previous comments and his baffling attachment to "proven" veterans like Cairo, Ishii, DeJean, Graves, etc. Isn't this highly distorted?

I think it's pretty clear that Cairo, Ishii & DeJean received a whole hell of a lot more rope than they should have, based on their performance. ESPECIALLY given the presense of superior options. Even ignoring Matsui & our minor league system, Woody is a former 2B and put up much better numbers than Cairo. Ditto with Anderson. So why did Cairo keep starting?

I think we all agree that Seo should have been pitching instead of Ishii much sooner, even if we disagree on the timeline. I seem to be the only one who still cares about DeJean, but IIRC, Willie's stubborness in giving him high-leverage relief appearances even after he proved himself ineffective cost us a few games.

Graves was only used in blowouts, but he should not be on a major league roster given just how bad he's been this year, both in the majors & in AAA.

So how is what I said a distortion?

[Frayed Knot]

DeJean pitched all of 25 innings this year - fewer than he pitched last year when he was very good - and was gone by June. Graves has thrown even fewer.
I don't see either one of these as examples of slavish devotion to vets.

[Guest sharpie]

]Woody is a former 2B and put up much better numbers than Cairo

He played 6 games there in 2002, that makes him a former 2B?

Cairo had a decent year for the Yankees last season, and Willie saw him play all of those games, plus he got off to a good start this season. Yes he should have cut bait earlier than he did but giving him some rope was justified. What Frayed Knot said regarding DeJean and Graves -- they had very little impact on this season.

(on edit): Look at Woodward's pre-2005 numbers. Lifetime .300 obp, coming off a miserable year. How are his numbers "much better" than Cairo's prior to '05?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Ishii is understood, but his continuance, which has ceased, can well beter represent an organizational overcommitment than Willie's.

Arguing for Woodward or Anderson over Cairo, without getting into their graces and flaws (as Sharpie does above), is not arguing for demonstrating that Randolph had a "baffling attachment to 'proven' veterans," but, rather, that he didn't pick the proven veterans you wanted.

DeJean has long been released and is a demonstration (though clearly not a definitive one) of the organization's willingness to cut a veteran and move on.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Frayed, DeJean's 25 innings pretty much all came in higher-leverage situations and he compiled a 6.31 ERA & a 2.10 WHIP in those innings. Willie--or Omar--finally got it right by releasing him, but as you'll recall, DeJean & Robo were the setup guys at the beginning of the season, and Willie stuck with DeJean in that role far too long. Not to mention Aybar, who also got around 25 innings.

As for Graves, as I said, he shouldn't even be in the majors at this point.

Besides, you're missing the forest for the trees. Cairo had 290 AB (tied for 7th most on the team) while posting a .605 OPS. Woody had 166 (43% fewer) while posting a .744. Ishii started 16 games for us while posting a 5.04 ERA & a 1.49 WHIP. Seo has only started 11. After being our second-best reliever most of the season, Heilman is JUST NOW starting to split time in higher-leverage situations with Takatsu.

Maybe it's unfair to characterize Willie's misuse of players as pandering to veterans (since he has given Padilla & Jacobs shots), but it's been pretty clear that Willie HAS been misusing players. And pretty badly, too.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, that's certainly a fairer point.

I would've tried some of Woodie at second, I imagine.

Try and remember that DeJean got his high-leverage situations not by the length of his teeth, but by excelling last year for the Mets. He lost them, and his job, by failing this year.

[Frayed Knot]

And DeJean pitched well last year as a set-up guy, does that not buy him some slack when he got off to a rotten start ... or do prior stats only count with guys where we can see after the fact were able to turn things around?

That's the problem with a lot of this analysis is it's looking at things after they happened and saying that it was obvious all along. DeJean pitched poorly and was dropped before mid-season. Graves was signed on a hope he could find past success (as was Robo - only Graves is much younger) and was pulled from anything other than mop-up almost immediately. Mathews was dropped, as was Aybar (who had a real good spring IIRC).

[Guest sharpie]

I do remember much gnashing of teeth about Roberto making the roster. Just think what we'd be reading now if he tanked.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Cairo's career numbers are even worse than Woody's--.692 compared to .698--and given that Woody was much more successful THIS SEASON, why not try him out? Although you're right. Woody started off as a SS, not a 2B--my bad there. Still, he'd played 2B before and when Cairo was sucking in July & August, I'd have seen what he could do. Actually, I'd have seen what Lambin or Hernandez could do, but since I said I'd ignore our minor league system, I'll stick with Woody.

]What Frayed Knot said regarding DeJean and Graves -- they had very little impact on this season.

I'll try this one more time. High-leverage situations. Close games instead of blow-outs. DeJean (1.00 LEV) pitched in them. Heilman (0.77 LEV), by and large, did not. DeJean's 25 innings came in significantly more important situations than Heilman's 58.

My guess is decisions like this contributed to our shitty record in one-run games.


In the future I'll avoid assigning motives, but my larger point is that Willie (or "the organization," if you'd like, Edgy), has made some stupid fucking moves throughout the course of the season that have pretty clearly cost us games.

[metirish]

As regards Cairo it's all very simple, he was one of Willie's guys, how many times did we hear that over the season, I highly doubt numbers even came into it until recently.

[Guest sharpie]

.692 to .698 is hardly significant. In '04 Cairo's OPS was .763 vs. Woodward's .630.

I've been in Woody's corner all year and I've never been a fan of Cairo's. That being said, Cairo, having actually played the position more than 6 times, and having started out the year halfway decently, merited the first shot at the job after Matsui went down/south. It wasn't really until late July that it was evident that he couldn't really handle it.

Woodward was given 3 starts this year at 2b. Maybe Willie, a former 2b himself, doesn't like the way he plays the position - I dunno. Yes, I would've given Woody some more starts there but I don't think he's the answer. What I really don't get is ever playing Cairo at 1b. There's no excuse for that.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Frayed Knot wrote: And DeJean pitched well last year as a set-up guy, does that not buy him some slack when he got off to a rotten start ... or do prior stats only count with guys where we can see after the fact were able to turn things around?

Sure, he pitched well in 21 innings for us last year--after getting lit up in 40 innings with Baltimore (6.13 ERA, 1.94 WHIP). For the season, he was at 4.57 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, which is actually an improvement on his career numbers.

And he absolutely sucked in spring training, amassing a 9.95 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP.

So I would say that, yes, prior stats DO count. Or should, anyway.

]That's the problem with a lot of this analysis is it's looking at things after they happened and saying that it was obvious all along. DeJean pitched poorly and was dropped before mid-season. Graves was signed on a hope he could find past success (as was Robo - only Graves is much younger) and was pulled from anything other than mop-up almost immediately. Mathews was dropped, as was Aybar (who had a real good spring IIRC).

Actually, I said DeJean & Ishii should be gone well before it happened. I think DeJean was my choice to DFA in favor of sending Bell down out of Spring Training, as a matter of fact, and after his first 3 starts in the bigs, I wanted Seo to stay.

I wanted to give Aybar a shot, based on his strong Spring, and we did, but he pretty quickly shot himself in the foot there.

Listen, no one going to be right all the time, but when it's clear you're wrong, you have to do something about it, and quickly. Willie/the organization has acted extraordinarily slowly to make corrections and it hurt our chances.

[Elster88]

In general, I think management has to more slowly than fans would like. This is how you find the Berts in the middle of the DeJean's and Graves'. I think they were moved down as quickly as possible, no matter what the high-impact innings statistic says.

Ishii is where you have a much stronger argument.
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This post had the designation 148) George Stone

[Guest Edgy DC]

If management moved as fast as fans would like, there'd be no more bullets or bodybags left.

DeJean's leverage rating is partly due to him going from a feature role to a realease, rather than getting downgraded to a lesser role beforehand.

I don't know why he's even at issue anymore. He blew a game by walking in a run, and got cut within a day or two. I don't know how much more decisiive a team could be expected to be. At the time of his release, Heilman was still being held in reserve as an extra starter, a role which typically gets only mopup appearances to keep one's arm fresh. As the season progressed, it became clear he was more needed as a more featured reliever than as a sixth starter.

Now, you might say (1) he should have been the fifth starter, not the sixth, and (2) he should have been even more featured as a reilever sooner. I'd tend to agree.

But neither of those points has anything to do with Mike DeJean.

[duan]

I for one said "no way to Roberto Hernandez"

I was way wrong.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

You weren't alone, Duan. Much of the membership of the CPF was opposed to Roberto's presence on the opening day roster. Many of us, myself included, were wrong about Roberto and many other personnel decisions.

[Theoldmole]

In the picture of Seo on the Mets homepage right now, his facial expression looks like Bruce Lee in Enter the Dragon.