I Hate the Trade Deadline

[nymr83]

after writing an apology to Zambrano thread i'd hate to see him traded now... my friend the Yankee fan thinks Soriano is god and belongs in the same sentence as Guerrero...i say the only thing the two have in common is a hispanic name.
I'd rather keep decent starters around than trade for a 2Bman who can't get on base and isn't very good defensively plus is a free agent soon and will thus cost tons of $$ that are better spent elsewhere.

I'm not totally against Soriano but if it takes Heilman AND Zambrano along with a B or better prospect i have to say no.

I have gotten to the point of being lukewarm on Zambrano...i don't like him yet but he's shown some potential recently and i'd like to keep him in a Met uniform the rest of the year and see what he can do.
Same thing with Heilman, sure he's had his failures but he's pitched well recently and isn't at the "peak" age yet. He should immediately be allowed to take Ishii's starts...but i said that months ago.

[metirish]

A view form Dallas...

]Soriano does a lot, but he can't pitch Rangers need arms from Mets more than star second baseman 10:39 PM CDT on Thursday, July 28, 2005 Old baseball story: A sports writer approaches Tal Smith, then an exec in the Astros' farm system, about his reaction to a trade by the big club. Coming to the Astros from the Reds are Lee May, a power hitting first baseman, and Tommy Helms, a Gold Glove second baseman. Fans and media in Houston love it. But not Smith, who laments, "You never trade youth, speed and power in the same package." The package: Joe Morgan, postmarked for Cooperstown. Now, Alfonso Soriano's no Joe Morgan. Not as good defensively at second, and he's certainly not the leader Morgan was. Still, his numbers will be better. Soriano is one of the best offensive players in baseball, the kind of hitter who can carry a club when he's hot. No telling what he could do for the Rangers. But only if he's playing someplace else after this weekend's trade deadline. The Rangers simply must make a deal with the Mets. As you may be aware, Texas is a little short on pitching, a congenital condition, and only the Mets can cure it. New York has pitching depth. Hard to read that sentence without wincing, isn't it? Pitching to burn. Sort of like Jude Law going through girlfriends. Texas needs help now and next year and forever. Kenny Rogers is serving his sentence from "Maximum" Bud Selig, and who takes over while he's out? Victor Zambrano, maybe. He's had health and control problems, and Texas would be his third team in two years. But he'll just be 30 next week. He's got terrific stuff. One scouting report concludes that he "could be dominant" if he'd quit finessing hitters. Give Orel Hershiser the chance to see what he could do with him, anyway. And what else? Maybe Yusmeiro Petit, a promising 20-year-old right-hander. Or Aaron Heilman, 26, another right-hander who might eat up innings in the back end of the rotation. A position player probably comes in any deal. Word is that the Rangers are holding out for Lastings Milledge, the Mets' first-round pick in 2003. Baseball America rated him the nation's top high school player, a center fielder with excellent speed, a good arm and bat. Still, he dropped to the 12th pick of the first round, reportedly because of sexual misconduct allegations that were never substantiated and did not lead to any charges. More likely prospect: Victor Diaz, a 23-year-old corner outfielder who's shown some power. Are three of those pieces good enough for you? Soriano commands a pretty good return. He's probably the best impact player on the market at the moment, and the Mets could use him. He's popular in New York, where he still gets a lot of All-Star votes. The manager sure likes him. New York newspapers recently quoted Willie Randolph recalling when Soriano was just "a baby" with the Yankees. Claims he taught him how to play second. And if that's true, Willie, it's safe to say Soriano wasn't taking detailed notes. But he might play better for a manager who could stomach his occasional lapses. He's playing great as it is. Deal him now, while he's hot. He's not getting any cheaper. He'd cost the Rangers at least $10 million next year after arbitration, and that kind of money buys some good bullpen help or a nice bat for the middle of the lineup. And what are the Rangers saying if they trade him for prospects? Official affirmation that the wild-card race is over. No one in this organization is going to make up for Soriano's offense. Not now, anyway. And his absence would leave a big hole in the lineup. How do they replace him at second? Ian Kinsler is the easiest answer, unless the Rangers get some funny ideas about asking Michael Young to move back to second to make room for Joaquin Arias at short. Prediction: Young won't move again. He volunteered last time, but no one should ask. He's an outstanding shortstop, an unquestioned leader and relentless competitor, the Rangers' best player. He's the kind you build around. His current double-play partner isn't, despite all he brings. Not that we haven't been warned. Tal Smith's lesson about holding on to youth and speed and power is a potent one. Here's a better one: You can't win without pitching, and that's no theory. The locals are the official lab results. E-mail ksherrington@dallasnews.com

[nymr83]

an interesting take on the potential trade but i think the texas newspaper over values Soriano.. Morgan he is not, nor is he Biggio, Kent, Alomar etc. in their primes. If they think they are getting zambrano, heilman, and milledge for a guy who is a FA next year they are kidding themselves.

[smg58]

Technically the Rangers would still have control of him this offseason, but it does seem likely that they would non-tender Soriano before ponying up $10M. So basically, they're demanding the moon for a guy they wouldn't bring back.

And in today's rumor mill, we have some papers reporting that the Soriano talks have heated up, and some papers reporting that they have cooled down. This time of year is better than Christmas.

Wait a minute, didn't I say that already?

[Guest Rotblatt]

Newark-Star Ledger Reports Blockbuster Soriano Trade Near

]Soriano deal still in works for Mets Friday, July 29, 2005 BY DAN GRAZIANO Star-Ledger Staff NEW YORK -- All those questions about whether the Mets would be buyers or sellers at the deadline seem to have been answered now, as they appear determined to land Alfonso Soriano before Sunday's non-waiver trade deadline. Yesterday found the Mets still hard at work on a deal that would bring them the Texas Rangers second baseman. As of last night, the sides were discussing a deal that would send right fielder Mike Cameron, outfield prospect Lastings Milledge and a pitching prospect -- possibly Yusmeiro Petit -- to the Rangers for Soriano and 23-year-old first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Final details had yet to be worked out, and some of the names could change, but the Mets are working to finalizing the deal in some form before Sunday's 4 p.m. deadline. There also was word circulating yesterday that the Mets were one of the teams interested in getting Aubrey Huff from the Devil Rays, but a Mets official said there was no truth to it. The Mets are not out to grab whatever hitter they can get -- they like Soriano and are willing to stand pat on offense if they can't get him.

http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/112261276696400.xml&coll=1

What makes this trade intriguing is the inclusion of left-handed 1B Adrian Gonzalez, one of the top prospects in baseball. Gonzalez was drafted #1 by Florida in 2000 at the age of 18. He was decent in low-level A at 18, then decent in high-level A at 19, then in AA at 20, but struggled on his promotion to AAA at 21, hitting only 5 HR after knocking out 17 each of the previous two years. Last year, he put up solid numbers for AAA Texas, batting .304/.364/.457/.821, and started to show a little power again, hitting 12 HR, 28 2B & 3 3B. This year, he's posting his best minor league numbers, batting .316/.379/.502/.891 with 13 HR in 285 AB.

He's showing a pretty good eye this year (27 BB/38 K) but doesn't project to hit a lot of home runs. Matthew Pouliot at Rotoworld ranked him at 68th overall in the offseason and had this to say:

]A disappointing second half for Oklahoma has added to the doubts that Gonzalez will be a quality first baseman in the majors. I’m still fairly optimistic. Gonzalez managed to hit .300 while being fairly young for Triple-A, and he continued to show Gold Glove-type defense at first base. He figures to be good for 35 doubles and 15-20 homers per year in his prime. That won’t make him an All-Star, but there remains a chance he’ll have a career somewhere between J.T. Snow’s and Mark Grace’s.

I'm not sure if those projections will change at all, given that he's currently on track for around 25 HR in AAA this year, but I'd take a 23-year old .300 hitter with 15-20 HR, 35 2B & gold-glove defense at 1st.

I'm still down on Soriano, but the inclusion of Gonzalez makes me like this proposed deal a whole lot more.

It also free up a spot for Manny, and we'd still have pitching to spare, were we so inclined . . .

[Elster88]

]I'm still down on Soriano, but the inclusion of Gonzalez makes me like this proposed deal a whole lot more.

Me too, as it kind of cancels out the loss of Milledge. Milledge is blocked by Beltran anyway and we need a 1B for the future. I don't like losing Petit.

[metirish]

From the Dallas Morning News...

]By EVAN GRANT / The Dallas Morning News BALTIMORE – The New York Mets sent a pair of scouts to watch Alfonso Soriano for four days this week. By the time the Rangers' 2-1 win over Baltimore ended a four-game series Thursday night, the Mets had seen all that Soriano can do. In four days, they saw him pound out homers, including one that tied the score Thursday. They watched him steal bases. They watched him make a mental error and a physical one. They watched him use his athleticism to make highlight-type defensive plays. In short, they got a complete scouting report. "But," Rangers manager Buck Showalter said, "so did we." The inference: Everything the Mets like about Soriano, the Rangers do, too. That's why both teams have lots of internal discussion to consider before Sunday's 3 p.m. trade deadline. Will the Mets offer the big package of young talent the Rangers want? Are the Rangers willing to give up the playoff chase, even though they are only four games out in the wild-card race? Thursday, the Rangers got the kind of performance from the entire team that still has them thinking the playoffs are realistic. Ricardo Rodriguez gave them seven innings – the kind of quality starting pitching they've sorely lacked this month. David Dellucci hit a two-out, ninth-inning homer that provided the winning margin. To trade or not to trade, it's a problematic debate. "I'm not thinking about it," Soriano said. "All I can control is how I go out and play. I'm doing everything I can." The Mets saw that. So did the Rangers. E-mail egrant@dallasnews.com

[Guest Rotblatt]

Me either, but it sounds like Petit's a "maybe" in this deal. If it's another prospect--say, Seo or Scobie or whomever--it sounds like a pretty good deal.

I should add that both Milledge & Petit are ranked much higher than Gonzalez, at 16 & 28, respectively. Milledge, at least, is still at least 2 years away and we have no position for him, but Petit would probably be gunning for a spot in our starting rotation next March. Unless we move someone between now & then or buy out Glavine's option, there's no room for him.

Of course, we might send him to AAA to start 2006, then trade someone at the deadline to make room for him. That would probably bring us maximum value for whomever we decide to move . . .

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Gonzalez doesn't appear to be an able replacement for Milledge in the least,

[Elster88]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: Gonzalez doesn't appear to be an able replacement for Milledge in the least,

What I meant was, if Gonzalez is one of the best prospect in the majors, then this deal replaces a prospect with a prospect, and the one we get isn't blocked by Beltran.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Yeah but Milledge is a better player and presumably, he or Beltran can take a corner OF position. You could even move Milledge to first base if you wanted to (not suggesting that....)

[Vic Sage]

]Bret: Mainly I was objecting to Vic's characterization of Heilman's failure in a starting role.

my characterization of Heilman's production as a starting pitcher is based on facts. Yours is based on the wishful thinking that always looks at "could be" rather than "is".

Here's Heilman's career as a SP for the Mets:
2003 = 2-7 / 6.93 ERA /13 GS / 64.2 IP/ 40 BB - 50 K/ .306 baa
2004 = 1-3 / 5.46 ERA / 5 GS / 28 IP / 13 BB - 22 K/.257 baa
2005 = 2-3 / 4.71 ERA / 7 GS / 42 IP / 13 BB - 34K /.247 baa

His minor-league career was equally unimpressive.

While he's certainly showed improvement, all i see is a guy that might eventually fulfill his predicted future of being a serviceable #3 SPer who gives you "innings". In fact, he's been more successful in the pen this year, than in the rotation. He's turning 27 in November and, outside of 2 games this year, may or may not have "turned the corner", but that corner has taken him from "bad" to "mediocre", not from "bad" to "good".

Would i prefer him in the rotation over Ishii?Yeah. But thats because Ishii sucks, has sucked, and will in all likelihood continue to suck. At least Heilman has shown indications that he might not suck. This, in no way, makes him some indespensible component of our next pennant winning team, or makes him a valuable bargaining chip. And if we can get one of the more productive 2bmen in baseball for him and another young AA arm, It's hardly a deal i'd become enraged over. In fact, its one that would likely put is in serious contention for the division title.

[Vic Sage]

i don't think the upgrade of Soriano over Cameron is worth Lastings Milledge and Petit, even if we get back Gonzalez, and such a move won't make a significant improvement in our offense this year. If you also consider what we'd be replacing Cameron's bat in RF with, versus what we're currently getting from 2b, and also what we'd be losing defensively, It might just be a wash.

Unless, of course, Gonzalez is major-league ready to step in and be Mark Grace. I don't know that he is now, or ever will be.

I'd sooner give up Petit than Milledge because i don't trust the likelihood of very young arms lasting very long. They don't much more often than they do. Position players are another matter, and Milledge has been able to use his 5 tools productively at every level. There's no reason he couldn't play a corner OF spot, maybe even next year, if FLoyd breaks down again.

If it was Cameron, Heilman, Cairo + prospect (not one of our top 5), for Soriano and Gonzalez, I might take a shot. But not our top 2 prospects PLUS Cameron.

no way.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]If it was Cameron, Heilman, Cairo + prospect (not one of our top 5), for Soriano and Gonzalez, I might take a shot. But not our top 2 prospects PLUS Cameron.

I think I agree with you, Vic, but it sounds like they'll need at least either Petit or Milledge to get a deal done.

I'd rather avoid the whole Soriano thing and just trade Zambrano or Heilman for Gonzalez. We get what most likely will be an upgrade this year at 1B and have filled a hole for 2006 without giving up any top prospects. Depending on who gets traded, we either bring up Seo or Bell to fill the void.

Hell, if that worked, I'd then offer whomever's left of Zambrano & Heilman to the Sox for Shoppach.

It's risky and Shoppach/Gonzalez might never pan out, but I'd take a shot at that. Tough market for catchers & 1B this off season--we'll probably have to make a trade to get anyone worthwhile anyway.

Our infield would be brutally young next year, assuming we used one of our AAA kids at 2B, but so what? They'd be fun to watch and Cliff would get an army of younsters to carry his bags around . . .

[Vic Sage]

]I think I agree with you, Vic, but it sounds like they'll need at least either Petit or Milledge to get a deal done.

i'd still consider it if we had to substitute Petit for Heilman.
but i don't want to trade Milledge.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Who are our two top prospects? With Humber on the shelf, that leaves Milledge for sure, but sources seem to be split among Hernandez and Pettit, with Bannister sneaking into the mix also the first half of this season.

Hey, somebody fire up the prospect update thread.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I'd think our top two are Milledge & Petit, with Gaby Hernandez and Diaz somewhere in the top 5.

[Guest Spacemans Bong]

I've actually read that the Mets really don't want to give up any of their top prospects for Soriano.

The Mets aren't getting Danys Baez either, as Chuck LaMar is asking for either Reyes or Wright. Yeah, sure. I know you got lucky once, dude, but there's a good reason why the D-Rays are so pathetic...once he gets a freakin' guy who he should trade at the deadline, he asks way too much for him.

[Frayed Knot]

]Who are our two top prospects? With Humber on the shelf, that leaves Milledge for sure, but sources seem to be split among Hernandez and Pettit, with Bannister sneaking into the mix also the first half of this season.

Hernandez as in the infielder from the Vance Wilson trade? ... I wouldn't think so.
'Closest to ready' is different from 'best prospect' and so Milledge & Petit would still be up top, with Gaby Hernandez next in line.
Neither Hernandez nor Bannister are considered to have the upside of those three and so would be below them on the pecking order even considering that they might be closer to the bigs.



P.S. Milledge is perfectly capable of - and may even wind up better at - playing a corner OF position. In no way should he be considered more disposable because his spot is "blocked" by Beltran.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, shee, of course I mean Gaby. I'm glad to see the Mets looking smart in the Wilson deal, but don't get crazy.

All sorts of outfield positions will be available if Milledge proves worthy of one. All sorts.

[Elster88]

]I've actually read that the Mets really don't want to give up any of their top prospects for Soriano.

I hope this is true.