Luis Robert Jr. Can Finally Flourish Now That He's Free From Face-of-the-Franchise Expectations

[Brandon Glick]

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

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- Brandon Glick

[Original article as follows.]

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Compared to the likes of Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, and Devin Williams, the New York Mets' acquisition of Luis Robert Jr. didn't generate the kinds of headlines that suggest this team is all-in on a championship push in 2026. Still, his addition was necessary in the wake of the Brandon Nimmo trade and the departures of Cedric Mullins and Starling Marte in free agency.

Just a few short years ago, though, Robert would have been considered a genuine highlight of the offseason. His status was brushing up against that of a superstar, playing on a fledgling White Sox team with lots of young talent. He exploded onto the scene in 2021, hitting .338/.378/.567 in just 68 games en route to a .946 OPS and 155 wRC+. After winning a Gold Glove and finishing as the runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting the year prior, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Robert would become a perennial MVP candidate.

He was less effective and efficient in 2022 (111 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR) but came back with a vengeance the next season, earning an All-Star nod and Silver Slugger on the back of a robust 38-homer, 20-steal campaign that also featured brilliant defense (+12 Outs Above Average, +7 Defensive Runs Saved). Perhaps most importantly, he finally stayed healthy enough to play in more than 100 games, reaching the 145 mark in what remains his personal best for a single season.

Things derailed after that, both for Robert and the White Sox. The Pale Hose proceeded to accrue an all-time worst 121 losses in 2024, while the young center fielder sunk to an 84 wRC+ both that season and the year that followed. Owed a $20 million salary, his shine had worn off, and Chicago proceeded to deal him to New York for another former top prospect who had lost some luster (Luisangel Acuña) and Truman Pauley.

And thus, we find ourselves at the here and now. Robert is an injury-plagued, strikeout-prone project with declining metrics who must stave off a spirited push from last year's starter (Tyrone Taylor) and a top prospect (Carson Benge) in order to maintain regular playing time.

Can a change of scenery make all the difference, though? Robert was meant to be the franchise savior on the South Side of Chicago. Now, he's merely got to be a reliable center fielder to earn his keep in Queens.

The beginning chapter of his career was almost designed to fail. From MLBTR: "Robert was a high-profile prospect when he signed with the Sox out of Cuba in 2017. He commanded a $26MM bonus, the kind of hefty sum for an international amateur that would subsequently be prohibited in the collective bargaining agreement. Robert’s dominant minor league performance further spurred optimism, and the White Sox signed him to a $50MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. At the time, it was the largest extension for a player who had to make his MLB debut, and it ensured he’d break camp in 2020 without any kind of service time games."

Talk about being burdened with expectations from the jump. While he delivered on his promise some of the time as aforementioned, the performance just never matched the projections.

So, what can Robert do better with the Mets? For one thing, he can stop striking out so dang much. Between 2021-22, he punched out in 19.8% of his plate appearances. From 2023-25, that number exploded to 29.3%. It's hard to do damage and make an impact at the plate when you aren't making contact.

A lot of that can be traced back to the fact that he's whiffing more often than ever, but intriguingly, it hasn't been a failure of his plate approach. He's cut his out-of-zone swing rates drastically over the past few years, meaning he isn't chasing bad pitches nearly as often. It actually seems to be a rare case of a once-agressive hitter becoming too patient; Robert's overall swing rate has dropped off a cliff. In that first sample (2021-22), he swung at 61.5% of the total pitches he saw; in the latter sample, that number has fallen below 55%.

Without diving too much into the swing changes he's had to implement due to various injuries, this could be fixed with a more pointed attack plan against specific pitch types. Like most hitters, Robert is best against fastballs (though he also has historically hit off-speed offerings well). He whiffs far more often against breaking balls and changeups and he watches a lot more fastballs. Can he flip the mental switch — and get enough consistent reps — to swing more at heaters and lay off more of the breaking stuff?

More than any other improvement he can make on the field, though, the best thing that could happen to Robert is that his body finally cooperates. His injury history is long. Really, really long. If you can think of a part of the body, odds are he's missed time in his career because he injured it.

To that end, the Mets have been quite cautious. They slow-played his arrival to camp, and Robert has drawn all of eight spring-training appearances thus far as he ramps up for the regular season. "Load management" is a term often reserved for NBA stars, but he may get the same treatment as the team tries everything in their power to keep him healthy.

With better luck on that front — and some conscious changes to his plate approach — there's still a lot of raw talent laying dormant in Luis Robert Jr. Will the Mets be able to unlock that potential? Odds are, they've certainly got a better chance than the White Sox ever did.

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[Lefty Specialist]

Here's hoping.  The White Sox fans seemed glad to be rid of him. Maybe he'll be that 'change of scenery' candidate, since the last few years with the Sox had to be a real slog.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Lefty Specialist said:

Here's hoping.  The White Sox fans seemed glad to be rid of him. Maybe he'll be that 'change of scenery' candidate, since the last few years with the Sox had to be a real slog.

I can't imagine how one would be motivated to play 162 games with the 2024 White Sox.