The Murakami Deadline

[Centerfield]

Is Monday at 5 pm. He needs to be signed, so with the physical and all you figure he needs to reach an agreement today.

His market is soft due to high whiff rates and something about poor contact rate for pitches in the zone. The only team I’ve heard linked to him is the White Sox. He hasn’t been linked to the Mets, but neither had Jorge Polanco.

Not a great defender, so he doesn’t seem like a Stearns type. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

[Cowtipper]

Masanori Murakami last played in 1965 and is now 81 years old. I don't think he's a good fit.

[bmfc1]

Fangraphs on Murakami:

 

Munetaka Murakami, 3B/1B, Yakult Swallows (NPB)

Like Roki Sasaki last year, the 25-year-old Murakami gets his own section because he’s pretty comfortably the most famous player of this group and his arrival is the most anticipated. At the time of his volcanic breakout in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, you couldn’t help but impatiently twiddle your thumbs waiting for the time when Murakami would matriculate to our shores. Now he’s doing so as real questions about his ability to make a viable rate of contact swirl around his profile. Murakami has very special left-handed power, easily a 70 or 80 on the scouting scale, and his 56-homer peak season exemplifies what he can do when he’s accessing that power regularly. In 2023, his strikeout rate regressed up to 28.1%, near where it was when Murakami was still an improving teenager, and it’s hovered in that range for the past three seasons. That’s a pretty big, scary number for a Japanese hitter trying to transition to MLB.

Murakami’s splits against good velocity (63% contact rate since 2022) and against secondary pitches (just above 50% in 2025) are even more concerning. Essentially, every secondary pitch type played like an elite offering against him in 2025. This may be because Murakami dealt with a litany of injuries from the end of 2024 through the middle of 2025 (toe, elbow, oblique), or it might be remedied with a tweak to the way his hands set up so that he can more regularly be on time against good fastballs. But if Murakami is only ever the quality of contact hitter we’ve seen the last three years, with no changes or improvements, he basically can’t be a good MLB hitter. Aside from Joey Gallo, there really isn’t precedent for someone making this little contact and having a sustained, successful career of any kind.

The general consensus among our contacts is that all it will take for Murakami to land a huge contract is for a couple of teams to have both the budget and the will to pursue him because of his power potential, and then try to make changes that actualize it. Elite left-handed power doesn’t grow on trees, and there are reasons to believe Murakami has been compromised and hitting beneath his true talent for the last little while. He’s going to be a very expensive lottery ticket. Caveat emptor.

[smg58]

At this point I'd be very surprised if he's all that expensive of a lottery ticket. I'm guessing the White Sox wouldn't be in on him if there was a bidding war. The White Sox could also afford to deal with an adjustment period, which looks likely to me. I still think Okamoto is a safer bet -- he posted similar numbers to Seiya Suzuki in Japan, and Seiya has been at least solid since he got here. Murakami has a higher ceiling and a lower floor.

[MFS62]

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com is saying the White Sox are signing him on a two year deal. No dollars mentioned.

Later

[Centerfield]

Two years. $34 million. A worthwhile gamble at that price.

This is the Frankie Montas contract.

[smg58]

It makes a ton of sense for the White Sox, especially at that price point.