First pitch swinging

[roger_that]

Bored (I lose interest in baseball once the Mets are eliminated), I'm cruising around bbref, and I light upon the category in "splits" called "Count/Ball-strikes" and I happen to notice that many Mets in 2025 were unusually effective when swinging on the first pitch. Baty, Alonso, McNeil--off the charts effective, OPS+es in the 1.200 range. Not all--Lindor was relatively ineffective swinging on the first pitch in 2025.

Why is this, do you suppose? First off, I guess I should ask if this is actually a thing, or just a statistical oddity I happened to notice. I went back a few seasons with Nimmo, who wasn't particularly effective on first pitches in 2025, and found that he'd put up off the charts numbers in 2023 and 2024.

But if this actually is a thing, can it be used even more effectively? If pitchers are known to throw fastballs in the zone on the first pitch, as I believe most are, does it make sense to swing at first pitches even more often than hitters now do? The OPS+es will come down, of course, the more batters swing at the first pitch, but they could come down quite a bit and still be league-leading figures.

Is first pitch swinging under-utilized as a strategy?

[Centerfield]

My son’s coach, who coached at AAA Las Vegas, used to tell him to treat the first pitch like a 3-1 pitch. Hone in on one pitch, one area, and if you get it, attack. Let everything else go.

I have no idea if high school kids and big league players are taught to treat them the same way. But if they are, part of the success could be from batters being very selective.

Expand that, and maybe those numbers go down.

[roger_that]

First pitch swinging for Pete in 2025: 1.279 OPS in 92 ABs

First pitch swinging for Pete in 2024: 1.166 OPS in 73 ABs

First pitch swinging for Pete in 2023: 0.909 OPS in 56 ABs

First pitch swinging for Pete in 2022: 1.031 OPS in 93 ABs

First pitch swinging for Pete in 2021: 1.203 OPS in 91 ABs

First pitch swinging for Pete in 2020: 1.425 OPS in 32 ABs

First pitch swinging for Pete in 2019: 1.246 OPS in 61 ABs

I wonder what the results would be if he swung at first pitches more often.

career OPS is 1.165 in 528 ABs. 56 HR, 157 RBI. .365 BA.

[roger_that]

While no Pete, my boy Baty seems to have done well for himself on the first pitch:

First pitch swinging for Baty in his career: 1.033 OPS in 87 ABs, a healthy .379 BA.

McSquirrel almost mirrors Bret in far more career ABs: First pitch swinging for McNeil, career: 1.007 OPS in 615 ABs and another good BA, .376

Soto, as you might expect, is off even these exalted charts: First pitch swinging for Soto, career: 1.237 in 467 ABs, .426 BA, 43 HR

Maybe someone should encourage these guys to swing at the first pitch a little more often? Or tell me what exactly is going on here?

[Centerfield]

My son’s coach, who coached at AAA Las Vegas, used to tell him to treat the first pitch like a 3-1 pitch. Hone in on one pitch, one area, and if you get it, attack. Let everything else go.

I have no idea if high school kids and big league players are taught to treat them the same way. But if they are, part of the success could be from batters being very selective.

Expand that, and maybe those numbers go down.

 

Bump.

[Frayed Knot]

Maybe someone should encourage these guys to swing at the first pitch a little more often? Or tell me what exactly is going on here?

 

Except that simply deciding to swing more often won't necessarily produce the same results in greater quantity and could very well result in a declining output.

I had never heard the 'treat it as a 3-1 pitch' analogy before but it sounds like a good benchmark to me. There the attitude is, "I'm going to swing if it's MY

pitch where I want it". But once that flips to, "I'm going up there a'hackin' cuz the numbers show I'm 'good at this' " then there's a good chance that you're

no longer going to be good at this, or at least as good at this.

cross-posted with above

And, of course, there are always various game/score/inning/runners/outs/pitcher circumstances dictating that 1st pitch swinging isn't (or is) the right move at that time.

[MFS62]

Reminds me of the book "The Long Season".

In the late 1950s all Latin American players were known as, "First ball hitters, fast ball hitters".

And the pitchers pitched them accordingly.

Later

[roger_that]

Maybe someone should encourage these guys to swing at the first pitch a little more often? Or tell me what exactly is going on here?

 

Except that simply deciding to swing more often won't necessarily produce the same results in greater quantity and could very well result in a declining output.

I had never heard the 'treat it as a 3-1 pitch' analogy before but it sounds like a good benchmark to me. There the attitude is, "I'm going to swing if it's MY

pitch where I want it". But once that flips to, "I'm going up there a'hackin' cuz the numbers show I'm 'good at this' " then there's a good chance that you're

no longer going to be good at this, or at least as good at this.

And, of course, there are always various game/score/inning/runners/outs/pitcher circumstances dictating that 1st pitch swinging isn't (or is) the right move at that time.

I agree, with you and with CF, in principle. I think it's sort of obvious that expanding the opportunities will decrease the numbers.

But the numbers are so good that a small reduction may be worth the expansion. Would you rather someone hit 1.200 OPS in 90 ABs per season, or hit .950 OPS in 180 ABs?

[Edgy MD]

This is something of a statistical illusion. The OPS for the Mets is on the first pitch is .929, but the OPS league-wide on the first pitch is .925, so the Mets were not doing more with it than most others. The reason this seems so high (in both cases) is largely that there are certain things you cannot do on a first pitch. In particular, you cannot strike out.

You cannot walk either, of course, but in a league that strikes out 2.64 times for each walk, the former has a greater impact.

Also, I think we are talking about two different things. The Mets performance when swinging at the first pitch, whether or not that was the pitch that decided the plate appearance (which was an unremarkable .743) and the Mets OPS on the first pitch, with that pitch definitively deciding the plate appearance, which, again, was .929.

[rchurch314]

related (also to Eric Chavez is a moron) : https://sny.tv/articles/eric-chavez-tried-to-change-juan-soto-approach-mets

leaders in # of barrels on 0-0 swings: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=foul%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.bunt%7Cbunt%5C.%5C.foul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Chit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%7Cmissed%5C.%5C.bunt%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%5C.%5C.blocked%7C&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=00%7C&hfSea=2025%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=50&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_barrels_total=on&chk_count=on#results