Magic Numbers (split from 9/9 IGT)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Magic number for 1st in the division: 27 (technically doable!)

Magic number for 1st wild card spot: 23 (also technically doable!)

Magic number for 2nd wild card spot: 22 (still doable!)

Magic number for 3rd wild card spot: 16 (they better get this!)

 

The Mets magic number over the Giants, for that third wild card, is actually 15, because they hold the tiebreaker advantage.

The Giants have 71 losses, so the most they can win is 91. The Mets have 76 wins. Any combination of Mets wins and Giants losses that add up to 15 will result in the Mets finishing with the advantage over the Giants.

Of course, another team may also sneak in.

The Mets magic number over the Reds is also 15. The Reds can win 90, but since they have the tiebreaker over the Mets, the Mets would need 91 wins to finish ahead of them.

The Diamondbacks can win a maximum of 89 games. That would give the Mets a magic number of 14 over Arizona for a clean win. The two teams split the season series, so it's hard to say right now who would win a tiebreaker.

The Cardinals can also win 89 games. The Mets have the tiebreaker here, so the magic number over St. Louis is 13.

Summary:

Mets Magic Number by team:

San Francisco Giants 15

Cincinnati Reds 15

Arizona Diamondbacks 14 (possibly 13 based on extended tiebreaker rules)

St. Louis Cardinals 13

[Cowtipper]

Why does every single do-it-yourself magic number calculator get it wrong? Jeez Louise.

[Benjamin Grimm]

They still do it the old-fashioned way, before the tiebreaker system was implemented.

I checked to see if the Mets hold an advantage over the Diamondbacks, and for the moment at least, they don't. The second level of tiebreakers is the teams' record against their division opponents.

The Mets are 23-20 (.535) against the Braves, Phillies, Nationals, and Marlins. The Diamondbacks are 22-19 (.537) against the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Rockies.

Hopefully this won't matter, but if it does, it may end up being very close.

[MFS62]

Buckle your seat belts.

This is going to be a bumpy ride.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Hey! The Mets won a game! Let's take a fresh look at the magic numbers.

Mets Magic Number by team:

San Francisco Giants 11

Cincinnati Reds 11

Arizona Diamondbacks 11 (possibly 10 based on extended tiebreaker rules)

St. Louis Cardinals 8

The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds have the advantage over the Mets, and Mets/Diamondbacks is still TBD.

The Padres are in the second wild-card spot, and have a five-game lead (and a magic number of 7) over the Mets. If the Mets can manage to sweep the upcoming three-game series against San Diego, things might get interesting. This doesn't seem likely, but stranger things have happened. Or so I'm told.

With only twelve games left, a magic number of 11 over three different teams means there's a very good chance that at least one of the three teams will pass the Mets. While the Mets are currently in a playoff spot, their hold is very tenuous.

[ashie62]

If the Mets can win 2 of 3 for each remaining series they should be ok

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Giants play the Diamondbacks tonight, so at least one of the magic numbers will go down.

Not sure who to root for, however. You could argue the Giants, because the Mets definitely have the tiebreaker against them. And a Giants win could help the Mets get the tiebreaker over Arizona as well, since a loss by the Diamondbacks would affect their intra-division record.

[Gwreck]

With only twelve games left, a magic number of 11 over three different teams means there's a very good chance that at least one of the three teams will pass the Mets.

 

Is 20% a “very good chance”? FanGraphs has the Mets as 80.6% chance of making the postseason.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I hope that's accurate, but it doesn't feel like it. I think there's a decent enough likelihood that one of those three teams (Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks) will win two or more games than the Mets do the rest of the way.

[Gwreck]

Strength of schedule is a major factor in those odds.

Arizona has 3 games against the Giants, but then the Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres — all of whom will make the playoffs. The Dodgers/Phillies have not yet and probably will not have determined who between them will get a first round bye and the #2 seed. Arizona’s postseason odds are at 5% currently.

Cincinnati has 3 in St. Louis, 4 against the Cubs, 3 against the Pirates, and 3 in Milwaukee. They’re also the furthest away in the standings at 2.5 games back. Now, there’s a chance Milwaukee might not have anything to play for (Brewers are currently +3.5 over Toronto for best record in MLB), but if they have a first round bye (a near certainty) they’re also unlikely to be resting starters that final weekend as they have the long layoff coming.

The Giants have the 3 in Arizona and then 4 in LA. They finish with 3 against St Louis and 3 against Colorado. Not surprisingly, they have the highest odds among contenders at 9.1%

The Mets, of course, have the Cubs and Padres but also the Marlins and Nationals. It’s about time the Mets actually take care of business against a Marlins team with nothing to play for at the end of a season.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Last night, the Reds beat the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks defeated the Giants. The magic number over St. Louis and San Francisco thereby drop by one each.

Mets Magic Number by team:

Cincinnati Reds 11

Arizona Diamondbacks 11 (possibly 10 based on extended tiebreaker rules)

San Francisco Giants 10

St. Louis Cardinals 7

The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds have the advantage over the Mets

The Mets/Diamondbacks tiebreaker is still TBD, but Arizona currently has the lead. Here's how it shakes out:

The Mets are 23-23 against teams in their division. (Braves 5-8, Phillies 7-6, Marlins 5-5, Nationals 6-4). The Diamondbacks are 24-20 (Dodgers 5-5, Giants 6-5, Padres 5-5, Rockies 8-5).

The Mets have six more games against division foes, three each against Miami and Washington. The Diamondbacks have eight, two against the Giants and three each against the Dodgers and Padres.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Last night, the Mets beat the Padres, the Cardinals defeated the Reds, and the Diamondbacks won their game against the Giants.

Mets Magic Number by team:

Arizona Diamondbacks 10 (possibly 9 based on extended tiebreaker rules)

Cincinnati Reds 9

San Francisco Giants 8

St. Louis Cardinals 6

The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds have the advantage over the Mets

The Mets/Diamondbacks tiebreaker is still TBD, but Arizona currently has the lead. Here's how it shakes out:

The Mets are 23-23 against teams in their division. (Braves 5-8, Phillies 7-6, Marlins 5-5, Nationals 6-4). The Diamondbacks are 25-20 (Dodgers 5-5, Giants 7-5, Padres 5-5, Rockies 8-5).

The Mets have six more games against division foes, three each against Miami and Washington. The Diamondbacks have seven, one against the Giants and three each against the Dodgers and Padres.

[metirish]

On paper at least the Dbacks schedule looks tougher , but the Marlins love beating the Mets

[Gwreck]

FanGraphs playoff odds:

Mets 86.2

Arizona 9.5

Cincinnati 3.1

Giants 1.7

St. Louis 0.2

And for fun, their current World Series champs odds:

Dodgers 14.4

Mariners 13.0

Phillies 11.1

Yankees 10.9

Blue Jays 10.8

Brewers 9.8

Tigers 7.7

Mets 6.6

Padres 4.7

Red Sox 3.6

Cubs 3.5

Astros 3.1

[Benjamin Grimm]

How does FanGraphs determine the odds? Baseball Reference does 1,000 simulations. Their odds also favor the Mets, but not as heavily.

Mets 66.7

Arizona 23.1

Cincinnati 6.3

Giants 4.7

St. Louis 0.2

[Gwreck]

How does FanGraphs determine the odds? Baseball Reference does 1,000 simulations.

 

Fangraphs details here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/about

(They say it’s 20,000 simulations).

[Frayed Knot]

That the Mets should have the best odds is certainly realistic.

That they'd have a better chance than all the others combined seems ... optimistic.

btw, since San Diego has two more with the Mets and three with Arizona they should be factored in as well.

If the Snakes catch the Mets it could in part be due to them steamrolling SD which, combined with a NYM sweep, could drop

the Pads back into the mix for WCs #2 & #3. iow, we could get caught by Arizona AND still make the cut so that throws a few

more possible, even if unlikely, scenarios into the pot.

Pads finish: @Mets (x2), @CHW x3, MIL x3, ARZ x3

[Benjamin Grimm]

We'll be in the rare position of rooting for the Phillies this weekend, as they'll be in Phoenix playing the Diamondbacks.

[Gwreck]

That the Mets should have the best odds is certainly realistic.

That they'd have a better chance than all the others combined seems ... optimistic.

 

I’m not in the weeds on the numbers here but it doesn’t seem that off to me as it appears to also factor in respective talent levels (i.e., the Mets are more likely to play better because they have better players). Yes, I think I know what joke comes next there.

 

btw, since San Diego has two more with the Mets and three with Arizona they should be factored in as well.

If the Snakes catch the Mets it could in part be due to them steamrolling SD which, combined with a NYM sweep, could drop

the Pads back into the mix for WCs #2 & #3. iow, we could get caught by Arizona AND still make the cut so that throws a few

more possible, even if unlikely, scenarios into the pot.

 

I see the FanGraphs odds have Padres at only 99.4% for making the playoffs.

[Benjamin Grimm]

But I'm sure that part of that 99.4% has them in the third slot, behind the Mets.

[Frayed Knot]

That the Mets should have the best odds is certainly realistic.

That they'd have a better chance than all the others combined seems ... optimistic.

 

I’m not in the weeds on the numbers here but it doesn’t seem that off to me as it appears to also factor in respective talent levels (i.e., the Mets are more likely to play better because they have better players). Yes, I think I know what joke comes next there.

 

If so then their method(s) get beyond the numbers and they're getting a bit subjective ... one might even say a bit generous.

Between July 28 & this past Saturday (prior to the wins in the last two games) the Mets had a 14-29 record. That's just over 1/4 of a year and a win rate for a team on pace to lose 109 games over the course of a full season. Seems to me that they should be owed nothing more than to be judged as the team they have been overall -- 'You are what your record says you are' and all that -- one just a hair more than likely than not to win on any given day and less than that if the opponent is any good.

[Gwreck]

Again, I’m not deep into the weeds here but I did read the discussion at the link above that indicates that four different projection modes that are used in creating the odds, which are both forward and backward looking:

 

[bLOCKQUOTE]FanGraphs Projections Mode

This mode is forward looking and uses the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections for rate statistics (a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer) and playing time to estimate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season.

ATC Projections Mode

This mode is forward looking and uses the ATC projections for rate statistics (a combination of multiple projection systems) and our FanGraphs Depth Chart playing time to estimate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season.

Season to Date Stats Mode

This mode is backward looking and uses current season stats, weighted more heavily towards the most recent games, to calculate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season.

Coin Flip Mode

This mode is completely neutral and uses a coin flip to determine the winner of each game, giving each matchup 50/50 odds.[/bLOCKQUOTE]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday: Mets lost. Giants and Reds won, Cardinals and Diamondbacks lost.

Mets Magic Number by team:

Arizona Diamondbacks 9 (possibly 8 based on extended tiebreaker rules)

Cincinnati Reds 9

San Francisco Giants 8

St. Louis Cardinals 5

The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds have the advantage over the Mets

The Mets/Diamondbacks tiebreaker is still TBD, but Arizona currently has the lead. Here's how it shakes out:

The Mets are 23-23 against teams in their division. (Braves 5-8, Phillies 7-6, Marlins 5-5, Nationals 6-4). The Diamondbacks are 25-21 (Dodgers 5-5, Giants 7-6, Padres 5-5, Rockies 8-5).

The Mets have six more games against division foes, three each against Miami and Washington. The Diamondbacks have six, three each against the Dodgers and Padres.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets won today, so all of these magic numbers will go down by at least one.

Tonight the Reds will be hosting the Cubs and the Giants will be visiting the Dodgers. Diamondbacks are idle, and so are the Cardinals, though they're quickly ceasing to matter.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday: Mets won. Reds won. Giants lost. Diamondbacks and Cardinals were idle.

Mets Magic Number by team:

Arizona Diamondbacks 8

Cincinnati Reds 8

San Francisco Giants 6

St. Louis Cardinals 4

The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds have the advantage over the Mets

And as Gwreck noted in another thread, there's no longer a possible scenario where the Mets win a tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks.

The magic numbers, therefore, are the amount of wins that the Mets need to match the most possible wins by the Giants or Cardinals, and the number they'd need to have one more than the most possible for the Diamondbacks or Reds.

Tonight's action:

Mets host the Nationals.

Diamondbacks host the Phillies.

Reds host the Cubs.

Giants visit the Dodgers.

Cardinals host the Brewers.

If the Mets, Phillies, and Cubs all sweep this weekend (it could happen!), and the Dodgers win at least one out of three, the Mets could clinch a playoff spot as early as Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Padres magic number over the Mets to clinch that second wild card spot is 5.

Current Playoff Odds:

[table][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][/table]

[th][/th]	[th]FanGraphs[/th]	[th]Baseball Reference[/th]
[th]Mets[/th]	[td]86.9[/td]	[td]71.9[/td]
[th]Arizona[/th]	[td]4.5[/td]	[td]11.6[/td]
[th]San Francisco[/th]	[td]1.0[/td]	[td]4.2[/td]
[th]Cincinnati[/th]	[td]7.5[/td]	[td]12.7[/td]
[th]St. Louis[/th]	[td]0.1[/td]	[td]< 0.1[/td]

[Frayed Knot]

It goes without saying that, with two teams on our tail who both hold a tie-breaker, we REALLY need to have a good series vs Washington.

The remaining games are all on the road after this series. The Cubs are good and still not out of winning the NLC title. And, while I don't believe in hexes, jinxes,

or what happened X years ago having an effect on what goes on this year, does anyone really want the season to come down to us needing to win two or more

games at the end of the schedule in Miami? ... I didn't think so. History hasn't been good to us on that account.

Mets: vs WAS x 3, @ CHC x 3, @ MIA x3

Reds: vs CHC x 3, vs PIT 3, @ MIL x 3

Diamondbacks: vs PHI x 3, vs LAD x 3, @ SDP x 3

Giants: @ LAD x 3, vs StL x 3, v COL x 3

DBacks look to have the toughest road, playing three contenders with at least seeding concerns to look out for.

The Reds have maybe the easiest, esp if MIL no longer has an incentive by a week from tonight.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If the Mets can win six of the last nine games, however they're distributed, they'll be in very good shape.

They can still make the playoffs with as few as zero wins, but let's hope they don't attempt that.

[Frayed Knot]

If the Mets can win six of the last nine games, however they're distributed, they'll be in very good shape.

 

Sure. But just because they've won three of four since the eight game losing streak let's not pretend that their ability to stink up the joint is a thing of the past.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Please note my second paragraph, above.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday: Mets won. Reds won. Giants lost. Diamondbacks lost. Cardinals won.

Mets Magic Number by team:

Arizona Diamondbacks 6

Cincinnati Reds 7

San Francisco Giants 4

St. Louis Cardinals 3

The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets.

Today:

Mets host the Nationals.

Diamondbacks host the Phillies.

Reds host the Cubs.

Giants visit the Dodgers.

Cardinals host the Brewers.

Meanwhile, the Padres magic number over the Mets to clinch that second wild card spot is 5.

Current Playoff Odds:

[table][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][/table]

[th][/th]	[th]FanGraphs[/th]	[th]Baseball Reference[/th]
[th]Mets[/th]	[td]89.9[/td]	[td]76. 6[/td]
[th]Arizona[/th]	[td]1.3[/td]	[td]5.3[/td]
[th]San Francisco[/th]	[td]0.2[/td]	[td]0.9[/td]
[th]Cincinnati[/th]	[td]8.9[/td]	[td]17.7[/td]
[th]St. Louis[/th]	[td]0.1[/td]	[td]< 0.1[/td]