Nate Lavender Is Giving the Mets Another Reason to Believe In the Future of Their Bullpen

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Image courtesy of © John Jones-Imagn Images

There is still not enough of a sample to ensure that 26-year-old rookie left-hander Nate Lavender can dominate at the rate he has thus far, especially in a context under greater pressure and workload. The New York Mets have used him in 13 games since his debut on August 4; on only one occasion he pitched without rest. The rest of the appearances are divided between five after one day of rest and five with two or three days. Lavender is pitching to a 0.00 ERA in 13 innings with 15 strikeouts and only five hits allowed.

What stands out most is that a good part of those opportunities have been in important situations. In 11 of his 13 relief appearances, he has entered the game to defend the lead, on one occasion with the game tied and on another with a deficit of only one run. He is controlling the opposition with four pitches and an extension of 7.1 feet that appears in the 95th percentile of the league. His repertoire begins with a four-seam fastball that, despite averaging 92.3 mph, has generated a 30.8% whiff rate. The key that distinguishes it is that it possesses big-time induced vertical break (+2.4” iVB) that is gnarly for opposing hitters to handle at the top of the zone, achieving an effect as if the pitch were coming in with greater velocity.

From that fastball, Lavender has the ability to generate a horizontal variation of 30 inches between his sweeper and his changeup, two different weapons that are becoming difficult to identify when coming out at almost the same velocity (79–81 MPH), but then end up breaking toward opposite sides of the plate. In the equation, the slider also appears, though Lavender does not usually use it in decision counts, but rather to move away from the middle of the zone when the hitter is ahead in the count. It has been the typical surprise pitch that breaks the swing’s timing, and so far his opponents have gone 0-for-6 in plate appearances that have ended with the offering.

This is how Lavender’s impact, despite having a small sample of 13 innings, has begun to generate interest. He has already accumulated nine holds and has not allowed hits in nine relief appearances. And here is another interesting detail: in his first nine relief appearances, he inherited seven runners and none scored. That streak was broken last August 28 in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Citi Field, when Lavender allowed singles by Daulton Varsho and Yainer Díaz that pulverized the one-run lead the Mets had.

We are probably on the same page at this point. We still need to see more from Lavender, but so far he has shown that he can handle this job and that is very good news for the Mets, who let veterans Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter go at the trade deadline. After Luke Weaver and Huascar Brazobán, Raley was the most dominant reliever and the one who faced the most high-leverage situations in the Mets’ bullpen. Now, Lavender is the new gem of the relief corps, leaving the opposition at .063/.063/.125 and a sterling –47 OPS+.

Player	Split	sOPS+	ERA	G	GS	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB	BAbip
Nate Lavender	Late & Close	-47	0.00	6	0	16	0.20	9.0	-	.091
Luke Weaver	Late & Close	25	2.10	31	0	116	0.87	9.3	2.8	.197
Daniel Duarte	Late & Close	26	1.74	11	0	41	0.97	9.6	2.8	.231
Huascar Brazobán	Late & Close	54	2.40	17	0	60	0.93	6.6	2.2	.190
Brooks Raley	Late & Close	64	1.42	30	0	104	1.11	9.6	2.7	.270
Sean Manaea	Late & Close	92	2.84	5	2	27	1.26	11.4	2.7	.357
Tobias Myers	Late & Close	94	4.66	8	0	40	1.24	8.4	3.0	.296
Jefry Yan	Late & Close	108	6.75	6	0	23	1.31	6.8	0.8	.091
Kodai Senga	Late & Close	114	4.05	7	0	27	1.05	6.8	2.5	.176
Devin Williams	Late & Close	122	4.26	31	0	118	1.70	12.4	2.2	.397
Austin Warren	Late & Close	126	3.27	11	0	47	1.36	9.8	2.4	.286
Dedniel Núñez	Late & Close	184	3.00	4	0	15	2.00	12.0	-	.500
Nolan McLean	Late & Close	210	10.80	6	6	18	2.40	21.6	8.0	.750
A.J. Minter	Late & Close	217	9.00	7	0	22	2.00	9.0	-	.400
Craig Kimbrel	Late & Close	243	12.27	6	0	21	2.73	9.8	0.8	.364

Here is the bullpen ranking ordered by the best sOPS+ of the relievers who have faced at least 15 batters in Late & Close (i.e., high-leverage) situations. Minter was never at the level that was expected, but Kodai Senga, Devin Williams and Austin Warren have also been very vulnerable under pressure. On the other hand, Lavender has topped the entire list. The sample may seem small, but a single slip in the situation in which the Mets have used the rookie could have changed the fate of several of his dominant relief appearances.

Now, we only have to observe how Lavender continues to develop in this final stretch of the season, after getting the opportunity he had been waiting for since he arrived in the Mets organization at age 21 in 2021.

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[smg58]

The .185 BABIP and 0 HR/FB rate are obviously unsustainable, but Lavender still looks like a very viable option moving forward.  It's one less item on the offseason shopping list.

[Cowtipper]

So did Dedniel Nunez in 2024. However, Lavender has been very impressive so far. But ... he's also a reliever.