Nate Lavender Is Giving the Mets Another Reason to Believe In the Future of Their Bullpen

There is still not enough of a sample to ensure that 26-year-old rookie left-hander Nate Lavender can dominate at the rate he has thus far, especially in a context under greater pressure and workload. The New York Mets have used him in 13 games since his debut on August 4; on only one occasion he pitched without rest. The rest of the appearances are divided between five after one day of rest and five with two or three days. Lavender is pitching to a 0.00 ERA in 13 innings with 15 strikeouts and only five hits allowed.

What stands out most is that a good part of those opportunities have been in important situations. In 11 of his 13 relief appearances, he has entered the game to defend the lead, on one occasion with the game tied and on another with a deficit of only one run. He is controlling the opposition with four pitches and an extension of 7.1 feet that appears in the 95th percentile of the league. His repertoire begins with a four-seam fastball that, despite averaging 92.3 mph, has generated a 30.8% whiff rate. The key that distinguishes it is that it possesses big-time induced vertical break (+2.4” iVB) that is gnarly for opposing hitters to handle at the top of the zone, achieving an effect as if the pitch were coming in with greater velocity.

From that fastball, Lavender has the ability to generate a horizontal variation of 30 inches between his sweeper and his changeup, two different weapons that are becoming difficult to identify when coming out at almost the same velocity (79–81 MPH), but then end up breaking toward opposite sides of the plate. In the equation, the slider also appears, though Lavender does not usually use it in decision counts, but rather to move away from the middle of the zone when the hitter is ahead in the count. It has been the typical surprise pitch that breaks the swing’s timing, and so far his opponents have gone 0-for-6 in plate appearances that have ended with the offering.

This is how Lavender’s impact, despite having a small sample of 13 innings, has begun to generate interest. He has already accumulated nine holds and has not allowed hits in nine relief appearances. And here is another interesting detail: in his first nine relief appearances, he inherited seven runners and none scored. That streak was broken last August 28 in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Citi Field, when Lavender allowed singles by Daulton Varsho and Yainer Díaz that pulverized the one-run lead the Mets had.

We are probably on the same page at this point. We still need to see more from Lavender, but so far he has shown that he can handle this job and that is very good news for the Mets, who let veterans Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter go at the trade deadline. After Luke Weaver and Huascar Brazobán, Raley was the most dominant reliever and the one who faced the most high-leverage situations in the Mets’ bullpen. Now, Lavender is the new gem of the relief corps, leaving the opposition at .063/.063/.125 and a sterling –47 OPS+.

Here is the bullpen ranking ordered by the best sOPS+ of the relievers who have faced at least 15 batters in Late & Close (i.e., high-leverage) situations. Minter was never at the level that was expected, but Kodai Senga, Devin Williams and Austin Warren have also been very vulnerable under pressure. On the other hand, Lavender has topped the entire list. The sample may seem small, but a single slip in the situation in which the Mets have used the rookie could have changed the fate of several of his dominant relief appearances.

Now, we only have to observe how Lavender continues to develop in this final stretch of the season, after getting the opportunity he had been waiting for since he arrived in the Mets organization at age 21 in 2021.

Do you approve of the job Andy Green is doing as Mets manager?

Do you approve of the job Andy Green is doing as Mets manager?

• Do you approve of the job Andy Green is doing as Mets manager? Required
  

  
• Save

See All Mets Polls >