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Posted
1 hour ago, Frayed Knot said:

Because?

Because the idea is to run 20 feet past third, downshifting as you come through the bag, rather than braking hard coming into the bag.  This forces the defense to make quicker decisions in a heightened state and execute with precision in doing so.  The point isn't necessarily to try to score at all, but to put pressure on the defense and provide coverage to the runner.

Because when a ball is hit deep enough to left center to allow a firstbaseman who sprints at 27.7 ft./second to leg out a double, starting at a standstill running toward that point left center when the throw is coming from 150 feet away, then a centerfielder, who sprints at 29.1 ft./second (second-best on the team), who is 20 feet away from second running at a gallop when the ball is struck — should he be waived home — will not be out at home by 45 feet on a throw from that leftfielder who failed to get the batter-runner at second, throwing from that 150-foot-away point to second, at which point the second baseman is forced to rotate and make a second 127-foot throw, even as the runner downshifted for 20 feet coming around third.

Those are all important mathematical factors that suggest nobody is getting thrown out by 45 feet.

But the real purpose is not necessarily to break for home at all, but to put pressure on the defense and make them make plays.  Making the turn and forcing the outfielder to throw through is just good baseball, and how good third base coaches work.  If he is turning toward home to make a throw, the third-base coach then then put up the stop sign affording the runner plenty of time to retreat, the runner is in at second, and maybe the throw is airmailed to Kenya and you jog home. 

If there is no play at third, the thired base coach needs to get down the line so he can make the call as late in the play as possible without getting his player caught off base.  Tim Leiper did not do that, positioning himself at third to stop the player coming into the bag, taking his runner out of the play while the play was still unfolding.

As for there being no outs, the 2026 Mets ability to score runners from third with less than two outs speaks for itself.  The bottom of the batting order coming up is also a factor.  And sadly, the ultimate outcome was a retroactive testimony on behalf of forcing the matter.

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