Playoff Odds 2025

[Benjamin Grimm]

I know this is meaningless at this point, but why should that stop us?



I noticed Baseball Reference's Most Likely Playoff Scenarios today has the Cubs as the top-ranked division winner, with the Padres as the second team getting a first-round bye. They have the Mets as the third division winner, who would get home field advantage in the Division Series against the third Wild Card, the Diamondbacks. The first and second Wild Cards would be, respectively, the Dodgers and Giants.



In the American League, they have the Astros and Tigers getting a bye, with the Yankees winning the East and playing the Rays in the Division Series while the Royals play the Mariners.



The Mets are projected to go 91-71 and finish three games ahead of the Phillies and seven ahead of the Braves. They have a 14.2% chance of winning the pennant, and 8.7% to win the World Series. Only the Astros (11.6), Cubs (10.8), and Padres (10.1) have better odds.



This is, of course, subject to change.

[Cowtipper]

100%.



Their magic number is only 155 now.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets are now projected to be the second-seeded division winner, which would earn them a bye from the Wild Card round.



Baseball Reference has the Mets in the NLDS vs. the winner of Padres-Brewers, and the Cubs against the winner of Giants-Diamondbacks.



In the American League, the Tigers get the first seed and the Yankees the second. Tigers would play the winner of Mariners-Guardians, and the Yankees would face the winner of Astros-Royals.



The Mets are projected to win 94 games, 11 more than the Braves and 12 more than the Phillies.



They have a 93.1% chance of making the postseason. Braves are at 20.8, Phillies at 15.4. Cubs 95.8. Padres 86.0. Dodgers are at 61.3, projected to win 89 games.



The odds for the Marlins, Nationals, Pirates, Rockies, White Sox, and Angels are all less than 1 percent.

[whippoorwill]

50/50



Either it'll happen, or it won't.





That pretty much sums up anything

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's really not accurate. There's not a 50/50 chance that a meteor will hit the Chrysler Building on Labor Day.