IGT 08/27 Mets at ARI - Snake Hunting

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: Not to throw cold water on an otherwise tidy win, but the Mets run production with the bases loaded (or even with just two runners on) continues to be almost comically bad, except it's usually not so funny. In the big 5th inning, starting with no outs, six Mets came up with the bases loaded in a seven batter span. The results were: K (Alonso) Sac Fly (Winker) ... HBP (Taylor) Walk (McNeil) E6 (Alvarez) K (Lindor) So that's six plate appearances, no hits, two Ks, and just one ball (but not a hit) left the infield. And the gap in that seven hitter span was a (mis-played) infield single by JDM to re-load the bases so that one didn't leave the infield either. Fortunately they got all their hitting in prior to loading the bases and that the lone hit in the subsequent sequence was followed by our long-time favorite sacks-loaded weapons, the HBP & BB, or else that big inning would have wound up a considerably smaller inning and quite possibly a different game outcome.

Fail.



Even when the Mets win resoundingly, in a laugher, there you are complaining about left-on-base runners. I know. They scored three runs on one single yet we only scored one run on three singles. How many times a year are you gonna write this same post over and over? Two hundred times? Six hundred times? The IGT's aren't even readable anymore between the Mets are leaving runners on base all the time every other post and the other guy handing out Nobel Peace Prize awards to Mets batters who strike out taking all three strikes because at least they didn't swing at the first pitch.



There's practically zero correlation between an MLB team's record and the number of runners they leave on base. In fact, if there's any correlation at all, it's the best teams that tend to leave the most runners on base. That's because the best hitting teams put more runners on base than the lesser hitting teams. Do you expect the Mets to drive in every single base-runner? Hitting is the least of the Mets problems. Ever since Martinez and Vientos began playing every day, the Mets have been one of the best hitting teams in all of baseball.



The Mets have one of the highest left on base rates this season. Wanna know who else has the worst LOB rates. Pretty much all of the first place teams and all of the playoff contenders.



Wanna know who has one of the best LOB rates this year?



The White Sox.

[Benjamin Grimm]

http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/images/schaefer33.jpg>



http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/index.phpCast your vote!

[Frayed Knot]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=167796 time=1724849271 user_id=68]. How many times a year are you gonna write this same post over and over? Two hundred times? Six hundred times?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: There's practically zero correlation between an MLB team's record and the number of runners they leave on base. Never said there was.

So then what's your point that it has to be made 300 times a year?



Fail.

[ashie62]

Great win!



The playoff math is frustrating but just keep winning and it might all work out

[batmagadanleadoff]

=ashie62 post_id=167804 time=1724850747 user_id=90]
Great win!



The playoff math is frustrating but just keep winning and it might all work out

[Frayed Knot]

Maybe if you read what I wrote rather than what you want me to have said so that you could in turn lecture me/us on the non-correlation of LOB and overall record, two phrases I neither used nor hinted at, then you might figure out what my point was.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: Maybe if you read what I wrote rather than what you want me to have said so that you could in turn lecture me/us on the non-correlation of LOB and overall record, two phrases I neither used nor hinted at, then you might figure out what my point was.

I've been reading that post for years. You write it hundreds of times a year, multiple times in seemingly every IGT.



I know what you wrote and what you're driving at. You expect better and view the Mets LOB rates as a failure or a weakness. If anything, high LOB rates indicate a healthy offense. A team's gonna leave runners on base, especially a good team, because it's putting more runners on base in the first place. The odds are stacked against most runners ever coming around to score because every single batter is likelier to make an out than to not make an out. Even the MVP caliber players make outs about 60% of the time. It gets progressively worse from there as the quality of the hitter declines. It's the same principle that explains why you're likely to lose all of your money the longer you gamble it away at a casino: because the odds are stacked against you on every single roll of the dice and on every playing card hand dealt to you. It'd be nice for the Mets to have one of those Gas House Gorilla conga lines around the bases like from that Bugs Bunny cartoon but it ain't ever happening because the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against it. You seem to think that every Mets inning should end with a bases-clearing Grand Slam HR.



Jeez, whining about LOB rates. It doesn't matter much. You might as well be complaining about how many brand new baseballs the team has to use to complete a game.

[Frayed Knot]

Nope

[Benjamin Grimm]

There's a difference between the raw number of runners left on base and the batting average with runners on base.



If you leave three runners in an inning in which zero runs are scored, that's frustrating.



If you leave three runners in an inning in which seven runs are scored, that's satisfying.



A team that leaves 2,000 runners on base but hits .400 with runners on is doing very well.



A team that leaves 100 runners on base but hits .100 with runners on is doing very poorly.



FK wasn't talking about the raw numbers. He was talking about the production with runners on.

[Cowtipper]

This was a high-quality game. After this game, it looks like these folks are on pace for the following:



Pete Alonso: 91 R, 34 HR, 88 RBI

Francisco Lindor: 110 R, 179 H, 43 2B, 33 HR, 96 RBI, 31 SB

Mark Vientos: 26 HR, 69 RBI

Brandon Nimmo: 88 R, 22 HR, 88 RBI, 13 SB

Harrison Bader: 18 SB

J.D. Martinez: 18 HR, 76 RBI



Luis Severino: 11-7 W-L, 181 IP

Sean Manaea: 12-6 W-L, 176 IP, 183 K

Jose Quintana: 7-11 W-L, 172 IP

David Peterson: 10-1 W-L, 104 IP



Magic number for wild card spot: 34

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: There's a difference between the raw number of runners left on base and the batting average with runners on base. If you leave three runners in an inning in which zero runs are scored, that's frustrating. If you leave three runners in an inning in which seven runs are scored, that's satisfying. A team that leaves 2,000 runners on base but hits .400 with runners on is doing very well. A team that leaves 100 runners on base but hits .100 with runners on is doing very poorly. FK wasn't talking about the raw numbers. He was talking about the production with runners on.

I agree. But only to a point. You're gonna have LOB's. It's inevitable. It's baked into the way the game is played. You're gonna have your runners on second and third with one out that aren't always driven in. That's baseball. The odds are stacked against runners scoring in general just like the odds are stacked against you hitting your number on the roulette wheel. But the Mets have the sixth highest BA with men on base in all of baseball this season. Hitting is not the Mets problem. At least it hasn't been since Martinez and Vientos began playing every day.





https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1&params=bases%7CRISP%7CML%7C2024%7Cbat%7CAB%7Chttps://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1&params=bases%7CRISP%7CML%7C2024%7Cbat%7CAB%7C



You can cherry-pick one of his posts here and there. I'm talking about his incessant, daily griping about the Mets leaving men on base in every imaginable situation. I'm talking about the unmistakable totality of his LOB posts.

[MFS62]

It also depends on lineup structure. Some players are so slow they can't score from second on a single. You would still have a hit with RISP but haven't produced a run. You don't want those slow guys leading off ahead of your better, and faster, hitters. They clog the basepaths.

The numbers can be tricky.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Except that, y'know, I didn't bring up LOB.