Nimmo and the Mets have a deal

[Frayed Knot]

If nothing else, this deal gives the Mets several years to find and groom and legit CF'er. Despite Nimmo morphing himself into a considerably better CF than I thought he'd

ever become based on his early career, I've long thought his best fit to be in left and that's likely where he's going to wind up by the time this contract hits its halfway point

so it would be real nice if they could manage to have one in the pipeline sometime before the present decade starts to run out.







P.S., there's no way Nimmo intentionally altered his approach strictly for purposes contract negotiations only to plan on altering it back right after. Being a success at hitting

is tough enough without trying to chase some old-timey baseball bromide from 3/4 of a century ago, especially one that hasn't even been true in decades.

[vtmet7]

If you're Buck, do you strategize with him on getting his walks total back to where it was? Or leave him be? In other words, is Nimmo's decline in walks a problem or a one-year blip?

I think Nimmo's walk obsession has been a byproduct of Sandy Alderson's directives in the organization...and with Buck/Chavez/Eppler influence last year, Nimmo focused a little more on: "if it's a good pitch to hit, pounce on it"...Which, IMO, as long as he's not chasing bad pitches is a good thing...



I'm sure that most teams around the league know that Nimmo goes up there trying to draw a walk; and pitchers with good control are probably not going to walk him...



There were some interesting splits for Nimmo (some good and some not so good):



From July 29 until the end of the season, Nimmo hit: .298/.398/.455/.853;

From Opening Day until May 27, Nimmo hit: .293/.386/.452/.838;

In between (May 31 thru July 28), Nimmo hit: .237/.311/.390/.701 (appears that he was playing hurt since he missed May 28 thru May 30, and was a pinch runner on May 31);



Home: .234/.321/.366/.688;

Away: .309/.406/.492/.898;



First pitch (swinging or getting HBP): .358/.374/.605/.803;

Batter ahead in count: .272/.492/.473/.965;

Even count: .310/.323/.456/.779;

Pitcher ahead in count: .232/.263/.368/.631;



by the way, Nimmo had 29 hits (and 2 HBP) on the first pitch of a Plate Appearance...

of those 29 hits, he had 10 XBH: 4 Home Runs; 2 Triples; 4 Doubles....

that's a pretty good percentage of his Home Runs and Triples on the season...

In other words, in 12.6 % of Nimmo's Plate Appearances; Nimmo had 25% of his Home Runs and 29% of his Triples;

[Ceetar]

Nimmo didn't particularly square up any more balls last year than previously. His power numbers, his barrel numbers, his "good contact" stuff, were all pretty on-par.



He sacrificed a few walks and a few strikeouts for a few more ground ball outs and singles. His weak contact was up. His GD% up. his LD% down. Pull numbers down.



Again, he sacrificed walks and strikeouts for ground ball outs and singles, but he sacrificed more value than he gained. I guess you could wonder if he's just not as attuned to the zone as he was previously, but the higher swing% makes me thing it was on purpose. Prioritizing contact does seem to fit with some of the things Buck and Chavez said, but it was detrimental here, which jibes with what we know about batting.

[vtmet7]

Nimmo didn't particularly square up any more balls last year than previously. His power numbers, his barrel numbers, his "good contact" stuff, were all pretty on-par. He sacrificed a few walks and a few strikeouts for a few more ground ball outs and singles. His weak contact was up. His GD% up. his LD% down. Pull numbers down. Again, he sacrificed walks and strikeouts for ground ball outs and singles, but he sacrificed more value than he gained. I guess you could wonder if he's just not as attuned to the zone as he was previously, but the higher swing% makes me thing it was on purpose. Prioritizing contact does seem to fit with some of the things Buck and Chavez said, but it was detrimental here, which jibes with what we know about batting.

it will be interesting to see how those types of numbers change for left handed hitters in 2023...Don't know how many times that Nimmo was screwed by the shift, but lefties typically get screwed more than righties do...Volgelbus particularly hits into shifted outs a lot...

[Frayed Knot]

Nimmo also beat the shift -- particularly with two strikes -- more than most LH hitters.

[Edgy MD]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=114439 time=1670628675 user_id=68]
=roger_that post_id=114436 time=1670625191 user_id=128]
If anyone has an intelligent answer to my question, I'd be interested in hearing it.

[Ceetar]

nobody gets "Screwed" by the shift. hit the ball hard and it doesn't matter. There are only 8 guys out there. As i said, Nimmo used the whole field more last year than ever, and as a result they didn't shift on him as much. his wOBA was .357 unshifted, .321 shifted. (103 shifts)



The difference from 2021 is that when shifted in 2021 he was .415 wOBA versus .350 unshifted.



I mean, all in all his 2022 was still really good. He just traded some OBP for soft contact, and it didn't really work out for him, though he did still crush a bunch of pitches. But he lowered his launch angle and missed the sweet spot more, because he was making a lot more bad contact at out of the zone pitches. Essentially he opted to softly ground out into the shift instead of taking a few pitches and striking out (but walking) more.



His average HR trot though, increased from 18.29 in 2021 to lead MLB to 19.21 in 2022 which was merely 3rd.

[roger_that]

One thing I'll be following closely is whether the trend continues or reverts. I don't remember the exact stats, but from watching him, it seemed that he swung at first pitches more last year than in previous years. His HRs and triples jumped in 2022, but oddly enough his overall SLG declined slightly (because fewer singles) so he seemed to be trying to take advantage of early strikes thrown in the "knowledge" that he'd be taking, a strategy (if I'm correct) that can be used only for so long before the opposing pitchers wise up. if I had to bet, I'd say that 23 triples and HRs (7 + 16) will be his career peak as he sees fewer fat first pitches in 2023 and beyond.



WHOOPS! I looked it up and he actually peaked earlier with 25 triples and HRs (8 and 17).

[Ceetar]

he saw the exact same percentage (61.9) of first pitch strikes at 2021. He swung at 1.4% more (30.9) first pitches than 2021, and 1.3% more overall, so pretty much didn't change his first pitch approach at all. It's like maybe a pitch more a month.

[roger_that]

=Ceetar post_id=114471 time=1670680861 user_id=102]
he saw the exact same percentage (61.9) of first pitch strikes at 2021. He swung at 1.4% more (30.9) first pitches than 2021, and 1.3% more overall, so pretty much didn't change his first pitch approach at all. It's like maybe a pitch more a month.

[Edgy MD]

I tend to still think that his approach changed, but it's not particularly detectable within the data of a single season, because the change occurred as the season progressed.



It's not even detectable if you split the season in half. But cut it up just a bit more granularly and voila! Look at this inverse bell curve! It's like, one third of the way through the season, he got off his game, had a crap middle of the season, but then corrected about 2/3 of the way through. By September, we were looking at something like peak Nimmo. It's certainly too much to ask that that's the guy we get over the course of the contract, but if it is, happy days!

[th]Split [/th]	[th]G [/th]	[th]GS [/th]	[th]PA [/th]	[th]AB [/th]	[th]R [/th]	[th]H [/th]	[th]2B [/th]	[th]3B [/th]	[th]HR [/th]	[th]RBI [/th]	[th]SB [/th]	[th]CS [/th]	[th]BB [/th]	[th]SO [/th]	[th]BA [/th]	[th]OBP [/th]	[th]SLG [/th]	[th]OPS [/th]	[th]TB [/th]	[th]GDP [/th]	[th]HBP [/th]	[th]SH [/th]	[th]SF [/th]	[th]IBB [/th]	[th]ROE [/th]	[th]BAbip [/th]	[th]tOPS+ [/th]	[th]sOPS+[/th]
	March/April		18		16		76		63		11		17		3		1		3		7		0		0		12		13		.270		.387		.492		.879		31		2		0		1		0		0		0		.298		119		159
	May		25		24		110		94		18		29		5		3		0		10		0		0		11		16		.309		.385		.426		.811		40		2		2		1		2		0		3		.363		103		130
	June		25		25		110		98		13		25		6		1		2		7		0		1		5		20		.255		.327		.398		.725		39		0		6		0		1		0		1		.299		81		101
	July		25		25		118		108		20		24		4		0		5		15		0		1		9		22		.222		.288		.398		.686		43		1		1		0		0		0		3		.235		70		92
	August		29		29		131		110		17		31		7		0		2		5		0		0		15		23		.282		.397		.400		.797		44		4		6		0		0		0		0		.341		101		129
	Sept/Oct		29		29		128		107		23		33		5		2		4		20		3		0		19		22		.308		.417		.505		.922		54		0		1		1		0		0		1		.358		130		16

[G-Fafif]

Good headline (bottom) becomes better headline (top).

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: =batmagadanleadoff post_id=114439 time=1670628675 user_id=68] =roger_that post_id=114436 time=1670625191 user_id=128] If anyone has an intelligent answer to my question, I'd be interested in hearing it.

Ask a stupid, attention craving question ....

[Edgy MD]

It's a yes-or-no question.

[kcmets]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=114527 time=1670777168 user_id=68]but then on top of everything else, you then take his side. And KC's, . You're the only one. What does that say, as if I dont know.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: It's a yes-or-no question.

How many times does he have to threaten to put his boot up my ass whenever the hell he feels like putting his boot up my ass before you finally respond on my behalf? Six times? Ten times? Thirty? A million? Never?



Yes or no?



Me, I'm too tired now from the horrible horrible occurrence involving Agee's mispronunciation on BRef. Just horrible. A day that will live in infamy. Think of the children.

[batmagadanleadoff]

By the way, BRef's pronunciation isn't entirely off (accent on 2d syllable). That's exactly how Agee's name was pronounced when Mets fans chanted his name: Ay-GEE!. Ay-GEE! Ay-GEE! So spare me the fucking dramatics. Horriible occurrence. Oh, my. Call the National Guard!

[vtmet7]

I guess that I don't understand the drama but...



how much of this thread is actually about Nimmo?

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

=vtmet7 post_id=114545 time=1670796463 user_id=80]
I guess that I don't understand the drama but...



how much of this thread is actually about Nimmo?

[vtmet7]

=Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=114547 time=1670798045 user_id=119]
=vtmet7 post_id=114545 time=1670796463 user_id=80]
I guess that I don't understand the drama but...



how much of this thread is actually about Nimmo?

[Edgy MD]

Cahna got drilled more than anybody and he neither dug in close to the plate nor leaned in during his swing.



It's hard to explain. Maybe the prevailing scouting report on the team said they were all vulnerable inside.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Good point about the scouting reports.



One thing I found interesting is the booth said one night that while Nimmo has decent speed, he doesn't steal many bases. The thought is that he worries about getting hurt.

[roger_that]

=Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=114550 time=1670799419 user_id=119]
Good point about the scouting reports.



One thing I found interesting is the booth said one night that while Nimmo has decent speed, he doesn't steal many bases. The thought is that he worries about getting hurt.

[Edgy MD]

I would disagree with that.



I think we've all read some variation on that, and allowed it to become an established truth, while we neglect to cite where we got it, and mostly don't remember where we got it, or what the break-even point actually is alleged to be.

[vtmet7]

Edgy MD wrote: I would disagree with that. I think we've all read some variation on that, and allowed it to become an established truth, while we neglect to cite where we got it, and mostly don't remember where we got it, or what the break-even point actually is alleged to be.

I second that...obviously, if a guy is not an elite base stealer, you might be better off with them not risking it...however, if you have someone like Jose Reyes, Lance Johnson, Mookie Wilson, Lenny Dykstra, Trea Turner, Rickie Henderson, Tim Raines, etc type of elite base stealing; it's another story...



getting to first is more important than not getting to first...however, getting into scoring position is more important than getting to first base...There's gotta be a margin where speed outweighs OBP, and conversely a margin whereas OBP is more important...



cherry-picking a little bit but...



Reyes averaged 66 stolen bases per 162 games from 2005-2008; his "162 game average" for those seasons results in:

116 runs scored; 68 RBI; 80 K's;



Nimmo in his career so far has an almost identical Slugging Percentage while having a significantly higher OBP (and more strikeouts as well); his 162 game average:

89 runs scored; 57 RBI; 141 K's;



yes, Reyes played on better offensive teams than Nimmo so his teammates are going to affect things; but still Reyes had a significantly higher runs per game and significantly less strikeouts...a guy like Reyes (or Rickey) in their prime, force pitchers and defense to make mistakes which IMO helps their teammates have better hitting opportunities...



A guy like Eric Young Jr doesn't get on base or hit enough XBH's for his speed to be real useful...



and a guy like Jay Payton that might have good speed but sucks at stealing bases, is better off staying put (Jay stole 14 bases as a Met, while getting caught 17 times)...by the way, I didn't realize how bad Payton was in terms of stolen bases or OBP until I just looked him up

[The Hot Corner]

I believe the modern game undervalues the benefits of an aggressive and capable base stealer. A base good base stealer can disrupt the defense as well as impact the pitches his teammates often see when batting behind him.



Remember the chaos Terrence Gore wreaked in his limited time with the Mets at the end of last season?

[roger_that]

Edgy MD wrote: I would disagree with that.

Which part? You'd almost have to agree that there is a point where your caught stealings are costing the team more runs than your stolen bases are creating.



I think the conventional wisdom was that the breakeven point was about 67%, and I believe that figure has only risen in recent years. But let's say it's 67%--it certainly isn't far from that figure.



So someone who steals at a 75% rate, 30/40, is breaking even with 30 attempts (where he steals 20 bases) and netting you 10 bases on his other 10 attempts. How many runs is 10 bases? You know it's not 10 runs, not even close to that. Is it 5 runs? Doubt that very much. 3? 2? Something like that.



So how many wins is your 30/40 stealer getting for you, if his stealing attempts add up to 3 runs or fewer?



If you'd like to disagree with my speculations here, could you start by identifying the single largest flaw in my reasoning? Do you think the breakeven point is much lower than 67%? Do you think 10 bases over the course of 162 games are much more productive than I'm making them out to be?

[Ceetar]

I don't know what's to agree with or disagree about. It's not the relative values of say second and no outs versus bases empty and 1 out are a secret. If the value added by stealing X amount of times is outweighed by being caught Y amount of times, you're not adding value to your team. You can quibble around the margins of that equation if you like, but it's not like there's some super secret sauce that you can't see that's making it more valuable.



If you add in calculus that makes you think a guy might be a little more prone to injury, that just makes even less profitable to steal.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I would disagree with that. So someone who steals at a 75% rate, 30/40, is breaking even with 30 attempts (where he steals 20 bases) and netting you 10 bases on his other 10 attempts. How many runs is 10 bases? You know it's not 10 runs, not even close to that. Is it 5 runs? Doubt that very much. 3? 2? Something like that.

in 2022:



Stealing second with no outs, nets you 0.208 runs.

Getting throwing at second with no outs nets you -0.611



So if you steal successfully 3 times but get thrown out the fourth, you'll have earned .624 and cost .611. So you're up 0.013. So if you steal 231 bases at a 75% clip, you'll have earned your team one extra run.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: I would disagree with that. I think we've all read some variation on that, and allowed it to become an established truth, while we neglect to cite where we got it, and mostly don't remember where we got it, or what the break-even point actually is alleged to be.

Bill James has been researching the value of stolen bases at least since you were in elementary school, if not earlier. Tom Tango and then like a zillion others. The break even point is in the neighborhood of a 75% success rate and the math you'd need to calculate this yourself is fairly simple and straightforward. You just need to assemble the data so that you can then calculate break even. Or just trust James and Tango and like every other reputable sabrmetrician. They're not defending their break even figures the way others claim there's an invisible magician in the sky who runs the world. This is just math and logic.. There's no mystery here, not by any stretch of the imagination.



Break even might change radically in 2023 as the bases will be larger and pickoff attempts will be severely limited. Its gonna be easier to steal a base next season.