Pinch-Running and Bach (split from 9/6/02 IGT)

[Benjamin Grimm]

I wish they could have a designated runner for when this particular designated hitter gets on base.

[MFS62]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I wish they could have a designated runner for when this particular designated hitter gets on base.

Let him get on base first.

Then I'll worry about his foot speed.

Of course, if he hits a home run, he can trot.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

His OBP with the Mets (.389) is higher than McNeil (.370), Nimmo (.352), Canha (.369), and everyone else other than Khalil Lee (only two plate appearances). So yeah, he gets on base.

[Edgy MD]

They can kind of do that (designated runner thing) if they are of a mind. Naquin can replace him the first time he reaches (or Ruf, if they expect a lefthanded reliever going forward). That way, still have a guy who can hit in there who is a capable runner, but they get the advantage of the stongest hitter up until then.



Gore can be used later if they need to pinch-run for Alonso or the catcher, or even take over for Ruf or Naquin.



If both Vogelbach and his Ruf/Naquin replacement have reached during the game, leading to a Gore getting a plate appearance in the DH slot, well, they've probably had a pretty good game. If the game is still in doubt and you don't want Gorgasm at the plate, the Ruf/Naquin figure that hasn't been used is still available.



DH managing makes it less risky to spend some of your bullets early.

[Chad ochoseis]

He's not *that* slow, based on my eyeball test.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I'd say he wasn't three weeks ago, but since he's had a tweak, his speed has been markedly reduced in the observations of my facial light-sensing orbs. I think, one-two weeks ago, there were probably three or four players on the team who could out-run him backwards.



He seems a little more comfortable now, but still hampered.

[kcmets]

Chad ochoseis wrote: He's not *that* slow, based on my eyeball test.

I was thinking the same thing, once he gets scootin' I think he scoots pretty

well given his size. I'm sure there are home to first and first to third stats out

there but boiling stuff down that much isn't much my bag.

[MFS62]

=kcmets post_id=106456 time=1662494901 user_id=53]
I was thinking the same thing, once he gets scootin' I think he scoots pretty

well given his size.

[Ceetar]

I mean, if only there some way to quantifiably measure this!

[kcmets]

I actually first posted that I'm sure Ceetar can shed some light on this but

edited it out before hitting submit

[Ceetar]

Mets sprint speed leaderboard, from Nimmo at 28.8 to Birdsong at 23.9

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/sprint_speed?min_season=2022&max_season=2022&position=&team=NYM&min=5https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/sprint_speed?min_season=2022&max_season=2022&position=&team=NYM&min=5



Minimum 5 springs, not that it matters for Dan, he's 11th slowest in all of MLB.



Gore doesn't get a lot of playing time to measure, but 2019 when he did his Spring Speed clocked in at 30.2 ft/sec, which would be just off the lead this year behind guys like Corbin Carroll and Bobby Witt Jr.



Here's a digital race: Dan is still only at like 76ft when Bobby Witt Jr. gets to first. Naquin is at 85, Ruf at 79



https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/running_splits?player1=596129_L&player2=571980_L&player3=573131_R&player4=677951_R&type=raw&bats=&year=2022&position=&team=&min=5https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/running_splits?player1=596129_L&player2=571980_L&player3=573131_R&player4=677951_R&type=raw&bats=&year=2022&position=&team=&min=5

[Edgy MD]

So when healthy, at least, he's nearly as fast as Ruffles generally, but not so much during their Met tenures.

[Edgy MD]

Nah, not even as close as all that when healthy.

[Chad ochoseis]

Next question for quantification is that of how relevant the difference is. I've always been dubious of pinch runners because I suspect that in the vast majority of situations, the added expected value of having a Gore or even a Naquin on base instead of a Vogelbach isn't as great as the expected value lost from giving up Vogelbach's bat for the remainder of the game. But I've never seen any numbers, and I'm too lazy to look them up.



Speaking of things I'm too lazy to look up, birdsong? I know "vogel" is "bird", but isn't "lied" the German word for "song"?

[Edgy MD]

Well, this is why we are more likely to see pinch-runners in late innings, when one run (or one base) is more likely to be a difference maker — and when that next time around the batting order is less likely to come, especially if we can't plate a run here and now.



Lifting Vogelbach for a better runner in the middle innings would indeed be a relatively exceptional case, but it is made more viable by a DH rule that protects you from automatically needing bench players available to pinch-hit for the pitcher, and by available replacements who may or may not be considered a big step down from him as hitters, depending on how serious a matter you consider his recent chase-happy slump to be.

[Ceetar]

Chad ochoseis wrote: Next question for quantification is that of how relevant the difference is. I've always been dubious of pinch runners because I suspect that in the vast majority of situations, the added expected value of having a Gore or even a Naquin on base instead of a Vogelbach isn't as great as the expected value lost from giving up Vogelbach's bat for the remainder of the game. But I've never seen any numbers, and I'm too lazy to look them up. Speaking of things I'm too lazy to look up, birdsong? I know "vogel" is "bird", but isn't "lied" the German word for "song"?

sure, it's stupid. bach as in Bach, music, song... Bird composer? hang on... (tried to do a quick Bach as a bird AI thing, didn't work well)

[TransMonk]

[fimg=500]https://i.imgur.com/SvMulJf.png[/fimg]