Home Field Advantage (split from Sept. 1 IGT)

[batmagadanleadoff]

Home field advantage in baseball is way overrated. If the Mets can set up their rotation for a playoff series against the Dodgers with Scherzer and deGrom at the top, I'll take the Mets.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=106103 time=1662086324 user_id=68]
Home field advantage in baseball is way overrated. If the Mets can set up their rotation for a playoff series against the Dodgers with Scherzer and deGrom at the top, I'll take the Mets.

[Frayed Knot]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=106103 time=1662086324 user_id=68]
Home field advantage in baseball is way overrated.

[Gwreck]

I'm not so sure that “overrated” is quite the right description, especially since there have been some statistical analyses of precisely how extreme (or not) homefield advantage is. There was a really good book called “Scorecasting” that came out about 10 years ago that analyzed it.



IIRC, it was indeed basketball and soccer that had some of the highest advantages to being at home, and baseball was one of the lower advantages.



That said, of course the Mets want to have it, and it's significantly better for Mets fans to have it (convenience factor for attending/watching games).

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=106105 time=1662086514 user_id=68]
The Mets took four of seven from the Dodgers this year despite Scherzer and deGrom, combined, starting just one game against the Dodgers.

[Frayed Knot]

=Gwreck post_id=106110 time=1662087558 user_id=56]There was a really good book called “Scorecasting” that came out about 10 years ago that analyzed it.

IIRC, it was indeed basketball and soccer that had some of the highest advantages to being at home, and baseball was one of the lower advantages.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Guest

[Gwreck]

Frayed Knot wrote: That's why hoops, with its high volume of ref decisions, almost all of them subjective, and soccer, where the out-sized importance of a call/non-call often has game altering impact, showed the biggest HFA and one that was consistent in leagues throughout the world in those sports.

I can't remember now if it was the same author or others but there was some fascinating data from soccer games played sans fans in the earlier parts of the pandemic, basically revealing that without the fans there, the visiting team got a lot more calls.

[Frayed Knot]

It certainly wouldn't surprise me if that were the case.

Even in the upper leagues (EPL, etc) where threats of violence, at least the on-field towards refs part, were not a factor, there's still the crowd effect which can, consciously or otherwise, nudge calls in favor of the home team.

[MFS62]

Conversely, does an umpire in baseball tend to call against the home team if the fans are booing him for a bad call earlier in the game? I always felt Lee Weyer had a hard-on for the Mets late in games if he was "called out" by the fans after a bad call, but I'm not sure if he was like that with other fans/teams.

And there was certainly no way to measure it. Just a gut feel.



Later

[Frayed Knot]

Stuff like that is generally in the heads of fans. And even if accurate, it's not the handful of 'makeup' or 'get even' calls that are going to contribute to home field edge over the long haul. It's going to be the not even conscious yet slight long term trend that'll get the home pitcher slightly more borderline strikes, or fewer touch fouls on the hardcourt, or maybe one or two fewer whistles for questionable holding calls.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'm not so sure that “overrated” is quite the right description, especially since there have been some statistical analyses of precisely how extreme (or not) homefield advantage is. There was a really good book called “Scorecasting” that came out about 10 years ago that analyzed it.

I'll stick with "overrated" because most in the media and then especially the fans, overrate the baseball HFA. Note, I never said that a baseball HFA doesn't exist, just that, again, it's overrated. Which I guess, would be synonymous with "exaggerated". Maybe you like "exaggerated" better than "overrated", though I think that in this context, the words are, like I already said, synonymous.



But lost in my main point was that if the Mets could get deGrom and Scherzer say three starts combined in a seven game series against the Dodgers, I'm picking the Mets and I'm picking the Mets even if the Dodgers get to host all seven games. Because my post wasn't about HFA in a vacuum, but mainly about having deGrom and Scherzer and assuming that they're gonna pitch like they've been pitching without seriously declining.

[Frayed Knot]

Home teams 3 - 5 so far in the WC round including two two-game ousters [stL & TOR]

[Frayed Knot]

3 - 6