IGT Wed Apr 20 7:10 PM SF @ Mets

[Edgy MD]

　One fish.

　　Two fish.

　Red fish.

　　Boo fish.

[MFS62]

On the list of all-time Mets managers that ranks them by games won/lost who gets the loss?

Do each of the managing coaches get one-third of a loss?

We need a ruling on this.



Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Showalter is the manager, even when he's not there. It's his loss.

[Benjamin Grimm]

http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/images/schaefer17.jpg>



http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/index.phpCast your vote!

[Edgy MD]

Mets Win Expectancy after Nimmo singled to center in the seventh: 2.4%

Mets Win Expectancy after Marte followed that up with a single to center of his own: 5.0%

Mets Win Expectancy after Marte then got caught stealing: 2.5%



Marte giveth and Marte taketh.



While that was an unforced error, the real killer-diller in the night was Robinson Canó's groundout the next inning.

[ashie62]

That they can calculate these percentages is mind boggling.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We're kinda going on faith that they're accurate.

[Frayed Knot]

Well they are accurate, just in a generic sense.



Essentially they're saying that teams in the position of the Mets in that specific situation [score, baserunners, outs remaining] have a 2.5% chance of winning. iow, put a team in that situation 1,000 times and they'd come back to win in 25 of them.

New positive plays improve those odds by calculate amounts just as negative ones lower them right up until the final out gets you to 100 or 0 depending on which dugout you're in.



But those odds are not specific to the particular teams playing; who's available that day, or where in the lineup they are; who's on the mound and who's warming up; the stadium, weather, importance, etc.

[Edgy MD]

Exactly. One team in that situation may have Al Leiter coming up and no better options on the bench, and Randy Johnson staring down at him from the mound. While another team may have Babe Ruth coming up and Bob Meusel on the bench, and Sloppy Thurston toeing the rubber.



In a vacuum, with all teams being one, they average to a 5.0% likelihood of winning, but Starling Marte would have a lot more reason to run in the former situation than in the latter.

[Edgy MD]

UNKNOWN BALTIMORE CITY WORKER TALKING TO ME IN THE SUPERMARKET PARKING LOT: Is Showalter gonna lead you guys to the World Series this year?



EDGY (TO SELF): (I guess he noticed my Mets hat.)



EDGY: I'm hoping so. He wasn't able to manage last night. He was away to have a medical procedure and nobody knew who was in charge of the team.



UNKNOWN BALTIMORE CITY WORKER: Yeah, I read about in the New York Post. We all love Buck here.



EDGY (TO SELF): (Yeah, that's cool, but ... what kind of nut do you have to be to live in Baltimore and make a daily habit of reading The New York Post?)



EDGY: Yeah, that's cool.